Post Holdings

Post carries $7.4B of long-term debt on a roughly $5B market cap, and the stock still trades at 13.8x earnings.

If you own Post, you own a grocery roll-up that looks cheap until the debt shows up.

post

consumer mid cap updated jan 9, 2026
$99.89
market cap ~$5B · 52-week range $88–$120
xvary composite: 57 / 100 · below average
our overall rating — combines growth, value, risk, and momentum
Start here if you're new
what it is
Post sells cereal, refrigerated foods, foodservice ingredients, and Weetabix through a portfolio that did $8.2B in annual revenue.
how it gets paid
Last year Post made $8.2B in revenue. Refrigerated Retail was the main engine at $2.6B, or 32% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.0% last year on ~$8.2B. The latest quarter printed about +10% vs. prior year revenue — that is quarterly momentum, not the full-year 3% figure.
what just happened
Post's last reported quarter beat Wall Street with $2.13 in EPS versus a $1.62 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Post sells cereal, refrigerated foods, foodservice ingredients, and Weetabix through a portfolio that did $8.2B in annual revenue.
Post wins because your grocery aisle is built on habit, not excitement. It sells across four operating units and did $8.2B in annual revenue, so one weak shelf does not sink the whole cart. Diversification → less dependence on one mature category → so what: cereal can sag while foodservice and refrigerated retail keep the machine moving.
consumer mid-cap branded-foods portfolio-rollup defensive
How they make money
$8.2B annual revenue · their business grew +3.0% last year
Post Consumer Brands
$2.3B
2.0%
Foodservice
$2.4B
+10.0%
Refrigerated Retail
$2.6B
+6.0%
Weetabix
$0.9B
+4.0%
The products that matter
owns and sells packaged foods
Packaged Food Portfolio
$8.2B · 100% of revenue
it's the entire $8.2B business across cereal, refrigerated foods, foodservice, ingredients, and weetabix. the issue is margin: net margin on the health panel here is about 5.5% — thin for a leveraged rollup.
~5.5% net margin
Key numbers
$7.4B
long-term debt
That debt equals 59% of capital, which means your upside depends on execution, not just a cheap-looking multiple.
18.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: the core food portfolio is still solidly profitable.
13.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by earnings → so what: you are not paying a luxury multiple for a defensive packaged-food name.
6.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: Post is profitable, but not exactly a capital-efficiency machine.
Financial health
B+
strength
  • balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
  • risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
  • price stability 80 / 100
  • long-term debt $7.4B (59% of capital)
  • net profit margin 5.5% — keeps about 5.5 cents of every dollar in revenue
  • return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in POST 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,070.

The index would have given you $13,920.

same period. same starting point. POST trailed the market by $2,850.

source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Post's last reported quarter beat Wall Street with $2.13 in EPS versus a $1.62 estimate.
EDGAR shows the latest quarter at $2.2B in revenue, up 10% vs. prior year, with 29.4% gross margin. EPS data is noisy across sources, but the broad message is simple: sales improved while profitability did not rise in a straight line.
$2.2B
revenue (Q)
$2.13
eps (Q · reported)
29.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 10% revenue growth mattered most because it showed Post can still grow the top line even in a transition year.
source: company earnings report, 2026

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What could go wrong

the #1 risk is acquisition-driven growth masking weakness in legacy cereal and pet food.

!
high
core brands stay soft after the deal boost fades
foodservice, weetabix, and refrigerated retail grew in fiscal 2025, but post consumer brands — the largest unit — declined.
if acquired growth slows, investors are left staring at a mature cereal business again.
∘
med
leverage turns ordinary execution misses into bigger problems
long-term debt is $7.4B, or 59% of capital. that is workable, not invisible.
with only a 4.6% net margin, there isn't much cushion for a weak quarter.
∘
med
pet food losses and cereal declines keep dragging the mix
management already pointed to pet food losses and cereal declines as the main culprits in fiscal 2025.
when you only keep about 5 cents of each sales dollar, small category misses matter.
at a 4.6% net margin with $7.4B of long-term debt, POST does not need a dramatic miss to feel painful.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number that mattered
watch whether $8B becomes the new baseline
fy2026 revenue is estimated at $8B versus $8.2B last year. if revenue flattens right after a 38% jump, the acquisition boost fades fast.
segment trend
post consumer brands needs to stop shrinking
the largest unit declined while foodservice, weetabix, and refrigerated retail grew. if the core cereal business stabilizes, the quality of growth improves immediately.
next catalyst
does EPS still outrun the operating story
Q4 EPS was $2.09 and full-year EPS reached $7.23, helped by buybacks and cost efficiency. the next report tells you whether that support is still doing the heavy lifting.
balance sheet
debt needs to move from background to headline
long-term debt sits at $7.4B, or 59% of capital. in a low-margin packaged-food business, deleveraging is part of the thesis whether management says it loudly or not.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak: analysts don't see a near-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits around the middle of the pack, not especially safe and not especially dangerous.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart isn't screaming anything. the stock is moving more or less with the pack.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings can be harder to model here. acquisitions, category weakness, and buybacks make clean forecasting harder than the low multiple suggests.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity

institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 190 buyers vs. 221 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 48.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$88 $143
$100 current price
$116 target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $185 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
source: institutional data · analyst targets

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