Start here if you're new
what it is
It makes the paper boxes and flat sheets that move goods around the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Packaging made $9.0B in revenue. Packaging was the main engine at $8.3B, or 92% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.2% last year. Sales rose 10.1% to $2.36B, but higher costs cut gross profit.
what just happened
Q4 EPS landed at $2.32, just below the $2.36 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
23.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
It makes the paper boxes and flat sheets that move goods around the U.S.
You cannot move goods without boxes. PKG made 304.9 billion square feet of containerboard, the flat paper that becomes boxes, in 2024. Its corrugated plants sold 71.1 billion square feet, the ridged cardboard that protects shipments. Your stuff still needs both.
How they make money
$9.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.2% last year
Packaging
$8.3B
+7.2%
Paper
$0.6B
flat
Corporate and Other Eliminations
$0.1B
flat
The products that matter
raw paperboard production
Containerboard
core input to the box business
it feeds the company’s packaging machine, which is represented here by an $8.1B segment growing 10.1%.
scale matters
finished shipping boxes
Corrugated Products
where pricing meets freight and labor
this is the revenue engine, but a 14.8% operating margin means there is profit to protect, not profit to waste.
14.8% margin
legacy paper operations
Paper
$0.9B · flat growth
it is only 10% of the segment mix shown here, and flat growth tells you this is support work, not the growth story.
10% of mix
Key numbers
$276
target price
’s target is $276, which is $44.79 above today’s $231.21 price. That is a 19% gap, and the market usually does not leave that much on the table for long.
22.0%
op margin
A 22.0% operating margin means PKG keeps 22 cents of every sales dollar before interest and taxes. That is why a boring box maker can still trade like a quality business.
$4.0B
long debt
Long-term debt is $4.0B, or 16% of capital. That is manageable, but it is still real leverage if pricing weakens.
2.6%
dividend yield
You get 2.6% back in cash while you wait. That is income, not a rescue plan, but it helps if the stock stalls.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $4.0B (16% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.9% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PKG 3 years ago → it's now worth $17,850.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 EPS landed at $2.32, just below the $2.36 estimate.
Sales rose 10.1% to $2.36B, but higher costs cut gross profit. The miss was small. The cost pressure was not.
$2.36B
revenue
$2.32
eps
21.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
A $0.04 EPS miss is tiny. The bigger clue is that costs still outran sales growth.
-
packaging corporation of america is well positioned for 2026.after a softer market at the end of last year, the company took some unscheduled maintenance to help keep supply and demand in balance.
-
recently though, management has stated that its mills are running at full capacity.
-
the company has announced price increases for its corrugated packaging from january levels.while we are not certain that the entire announced price hike will hold, even achieving a portion of the rise would help the bottom line.
-
orders have been strong despite soft home sales.construction end markets are a large user of cardboard packaging and the outlook continues to be lackluster as high mortgage rates hamper home sales.
-
the greif acquisition is ahead of plan.after just five months, management has made tremendous progress improving efficiency at the acquired plants. in addition to better-than-expected cost and productivity gains, there is a potential to make inroads with one of greif's large online retail customers to boost sales.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is containerboard and energy cost inflation — because this is still a box business, not a software business.
high
containerboard and energy cost inflation
raw material and energy costs are listed here as 60–70% of the cost structure. when those move the wrong way, a 14.8% operating margin stops looking roomy.
the latest quarter already showed the pattern: sales rose 10.1% to $2.36B, but gross profit still fell from last year.
med
packaging demand slowdown
the segment mix shown here is 90% packaging and 10% paper. if box volumes soften, the part of the business doing almost all the work is the part that gets hit.
PKG grew revenue 4.7% last year. that is enough to matter, but not enough to absorb a real demand shock gracefully.
med
mill start-up and execution risk
the millersburg plant start-up is on the watch list for a reason. new capacity can help later and still dent margins first.
when a business keeps 10.3% net margin and trades at 23.5x trailing earnings, execution hiccups do not stay small for long.
packaging accounts for $8.1B of the $9.0B segment mix shown here, so the company is heavily exposed to the one business where cost spikes and volume swings matter most.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross profit vs. sales growth
sales rose 10.1% in q4 2025, but gross profit fell from last year. that gap is the whole short-term debate.
risk
input cost pressure
raw materials and energy are a big part of the cost base. if they stay elevated, 14.8% operating margin gets tested again.
calendar
q1 2026 earnings call
you want the update on pricing, box demand, and whether start-up costs are temporary or sticking around.
trend
institutional flow
310 buyers versus 319 sellers is basically a split vote. if that keeps leaning negative, it tells you funds see limited upside at this price.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a clear short-term edge here.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. you are taking business-cycle risk, not balance-sheet panic risk.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the stock is moving with the market, not breaking away from it.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
reasonably predictable, but this is still a packaging company. costs and demand can make clean forecasts look silly.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
310 buyers vs. 319 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 87.6M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$193
$358
$231
current price
$276
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $300 (+30% · 9% ann'l return)
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