XVARY Composite Score
58
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Polaris makes off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and boats, then sells parts and accessories through dealers.
How it gets paid
Last year Polaris made $7.2B in revenue. Off-road vehicles & snowmobiles was the main engine at $5.7B, or 79% of sales.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.3% last year. 18.8% gross margin mattered most because it shows how much profit Polaris kept after making and selling the product.
What just happened
Polaris missed with -$2.84 EPS on $5.2B of revenue.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
44.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 58/100 — below average
What They Do
Polaris makes off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and boats, then sells parts and accessories through dealers.
Polaris sells through dealers, not just a website. That means your local seller becomes part of the machine, and leaving hurts. Contrast the mix: off-road and snowmobiles are 79% of sales, while marine is 7%. The business has 22 manufacturing facilities, so it can keep feeding the dealer network with product and parts.
How They Make Money
$7.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.3% last year
Off-road vehicles & snowmobiles
$5.7B
On-road vehicles
$1.0B
Marine
$0.5B
The Products That Matter
Side-by-side utility & sport vehicles
Ranger & RZR
$5.0B off-road segment · 69% of revenue
this is the center of gravity. if off-road demand weakens, most of the investment story weakens with it.
core driver
Winter recreational vehicles
Snowmobiles
$1.2B · 17% of revenue
it's big enough to matter and seasonal enough to swing results when winter demand cooperates — or doesn't.
seasonal swing
Motorcycles and marine products
Motorcycles & Boats
$1.0B · 14% of revenue
this broadens the lineup, but not by enough to change the thesis. off-road still drives the bus.
secondary
Key Numbers
44.1x
trailing p/e
You are paying 44.1 years of trailing earnings for a business with a -4.9% operating margin.
4.9%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business. At -4.9%, the core machine is still leaking money.
3.9%
dividend yield
Dividend yield means cash back from the stock. At 3.9%, you get paid while waiting for the turnaround.
$1.3B
long-term debt
Debt means borrowed money. Polaris owes $1.3B before it fixes the business.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $1.3B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.7% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in PII 3 years ago → it's now worth $7370.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Polaris missed with -$2.84 EPS on $5.2B of revenue.
Revenue jumped 184% vs. prior year, but the bottom line stayed ugly. Gross margin was 18.8%, which says the company sold more without keeping much more.
$1.8B
revenue
-$2.84
eps
18.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
18.8% gross margin mattered most because it shows how much profit Polaris kept after making and selling the product.
-
Polaris, inc. started to see positive trends in the second half of 2025.
-
Indeed, after a dismal start to last year, the company may be starting to turn the corner.
-
September-quarter sales of $1.84 billion topped our estimate by a wide margin and rose 7% vs. prior year.shipments were better than expected and sales of off-road vehicles increased, especially from the ranger brand.
-
The marine division also saw healthier demand.
-
Adjusted profits of $0.41 per share also were a pleasant surprise.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is discretionary demand for off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, and boats.
High
Consumer pullback hits the whole revenue base
all $7.2B of revenue comes from powersports and recreational products. these are exactly the purchases people delay when rates stay high or confidence drops.
impact: 100% of revenue is exposed to weaker discretionary spending
Med
Margin recovery stalls before it reaches the bottom line
gross margin improved to 18.1%, which is progress. net margin is still only 1.2%. that leaves very little room for cost misses, discounting, or warranty pressure.
impact: a small cost shock can erase a large share of profit
Med
Product quality problems damage the brand twice
when brand loyalty is part of the thesis, reliability issues hurt in two places — first in warranty costs, then in reputation. this page does not provide a quantified claims figure, so we're not pretending it does.
impact: thin margins mean even modest warranty pressure matters
Med
$1.3B of long-term debt reduces flexibility
the balance sheet is above average, not distressed. but debt looks larger when the business only earns a 1.2% net margin and buybacks are already minimal.
impact: less room for a long downturn, aggressive repurchases, or execution mistakes
with a 1.2% net margin and $1.3B of long-term debt, Polaris does not need a disaster to disappoint you — it just needs demand or margins to slip.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Margin
Gross margin above 18%
18.1% is moving in the right direction. the bull case needs that number to keep climbing, not just hold for one quarter.
Calendar
Next guidance reset
management is guiding to $1.50–$1.60 EPS and 1–3% sales growth for 2026. the next earnings report tells you whether that still stands.
Ownership
Institutional buying vs. target skepticism
institutions were net buyers for 3 straight quarters, while the long-term midpoint target is still $56. one of those signals is early or wrong.
Demand
Off-road sales momentum
$5.0B of revenue comes from off-road vehicles. if consumer demand cracks there, the whole model feels it fast.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, the market is waiting for cleaner evidence.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 sounds ordinary, but a 1.2% net margin makes ordinary volatility feel less ordinary.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect better-than-average price action over the next year. in human-speak: the chart looks stronger than the income statement.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
45 / 100 means estimates are shaky. if you own this, expect revisions, not clean quarterly rhythm.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 201 buyers vs. 194 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 54.6M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$25
$87
$71
Current price
$56
Target midpoint · 21% from current · 3-5yr high: $100 (+40% · 12% ann'l return)
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