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what it is
Impinj makes the chips and gear that let businesses track physical items wirelessly across stores, warehouses, and supply chains.
how it gets paid
Last year Impinj made $361M in revenue. Endpoint ICs was the main engine at $288.8M, or 80% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.4% last year. The $0.01 EPS miss mattered because this stock trades on confidence.
what just happened
Impinj reported $92.8M in revenue and $0.50 in EPS, but the miss and weak outlook hit the stock harder than the sales beat helped.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
53.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 19/100 — weak
What they do
Impinj makes the chips and gear that let businesses track physical items wirelessly across stores, warehouses, and supply chains.
Impinj sells both the chip and the rest of the plumbing. Endpoint ICs made up 80% of 2025 revenue, while Systems added the readers and infrastructure around them. If your operation runs on that stack, switching means replacing hardware, software, and workflows all at once.
How they make money
$361M
annual revenue · their business grew -1.4% last year
Endpoint ICs
$288.8M
Reader ICs
$36.1M
Readers and gateways
$21.7M
Antennas, software, and support
$14.4M
The products that matter
rfid chips, readers, and software
IoT Platform for RFID
$361M revenue · entire business
it is the whole company: a $361M platform used for item tracking, inventory visibility, and automation. If adoption expands, everything benefits. If customer spending pauses, everything feels it.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$143
18M target
That is 28% above $111.75 today, so you have a clean upside case if the rebound actually shows up in results.
53.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many years of current earnings you are paying for → so what: this stock is expensive for a company with revenue down 1.4%.
$361M
annual revenue
This is a roughly $3B company built on just $361M of sales, which means expectations are doing a lot of the lifting.
52.8%
gross margin
Gross margin → money left after making the product → so what: the products are attractive, but operating margin at -0.2% says overhead is still eating it.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $184M (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 25.9% — keeps 26 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C+ — net profit margin looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PI 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,900.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Impinj reported $92.8M in revenue and $0.50 in EPS, but the miss and weak outlook hit the stock harder than the sales beat helped.
Revenue topped the $92.3M consensus, but EPS missed by $0.01. Management then gave a softer current-quarter outlook, which helps explain why the shares fell 30% since the November review.
$92.8M
revenue
$0.50
eps
52.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.01 EPS miss mattered because this stock trades on confidence, and confidence is fragile when a 53.0x multiple meets weaker guidance.
-
shares of impinj have fallen 30% in value since our november review.
-
the decline can be attributed to management’s unfavorable outlook for the current quarter, which was expressed in the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release.the radio frequency identification maker reported decent revenue and earnings results for the december period, but the performance failed to impress investors.
-
revenue rose 1.4%, to $92.8 million, and topped wall street forecasts of $92.3 million.
-
meanwhile, earnings per share of $0.50 missed the consensus estimate by $0.01 and management provided weaker-than-expected guidance for the start of 2026.
-
near-term challenges appear on the horizon.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is an enterprise RFID spending slowdown across retail and logistics customers that drive the whole platform.
high
enterprise RFID spending slowdown
all $361M of revenue runs through one RFID platform. If retailers or logistics customers delay deployments, there is nowhere else in the business to hide.
100% of revenue is tied to the same demand cycle
high
premium multiple, thin margin for error
the stock trades at 53.0x trailing earnings with a 19/100 composite score, a C+ balance sheet, and a 5/100 price stability score. That combination is not built to absorb another disappointment.
valuation leaves little room for another guidance reset
med
margin pressure in a niche category
the 20.2% net margin is doing a lot of work in the thesis. If pricing weakens or mix shifts the wrong way, the cleanest proof point in the story starts to fade.
the bull case looks weaker if that 20.2% margin slides
med
volatile stock, volatile holders
the 52-week range is $61–$215 and the price stability score is 5/100. You are not buying a quiet compounder. You are buying a stock that already has deep drawdowns in its recent record.
wide swings are part of the package, not an exception
all $361M of revenue sits in one RFID platform, and the stock still trades at 53.0x trailing earnings. If demand softens again, you get hit twice — slower numbers and a lower multiple.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next quarterly guidance
the quarter matters, but the real tell is whether management still sounds cautious after the weak start to 2026.
metric
revenue versus the $375M full-year bar
that estimate is only modestly above last year’s $361M. If Impinj cannot clear it, the rebound story starts looking thin fast.
trend
margin durability
20.2% net margin is the cleanest sign that the category still supports good economics. If that rolls over, the multiple has a problem.
risk
institutional buying that looks like conviction
158 buyers versus 157 sellers counts as net buying. It does not count as strong conviction. Watch whether that gap widens.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — near the worst short-term ranking available. in human-speak, analysts think the next 6–12 months look rough.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 5 — real risk of sharp drawdowns. That lines up with the $61–$215 trading range.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the chart rank is strong while the broader short-term outlook rank is weak. Translation: traders may like the bounce more than long-term investors like the setup.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than in steadier businesses. Expect revisions, resets, and occasional drama.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 158 buyers vs. 157 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 31.7M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$78
$208
$112
current price
$143
target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $208
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