Start here if you're new
what it is
Pagaya uses AI to match consumer loans with banks and investors, so lenders lend more without building the whole machine.
how it gets paid
Last year Pagaya Technologies made $1.3B in revenue. Personal loans was the main engine at $0.56B, or 43% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 25.6% last year. Revenue rose 177% vs. prior year, and EPS rose 139%.
what just happened
Pagaya posted $940M in quarterly revenue and $0.55 EPS, both up fast.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
-$5.66 fy2024 eps est
$1B fy2024 rev est
20.9% operating margin
3.5 beta
xvary composite: 35/100 — weak
What they do
Pagaya uses AI to match consumer loans with banks and investors, so lenders lend more without building the whole machine.
Your bank does not rip out a working lending system fast. Pagaya has about $5.4B in ABS (asset-backed securities, bonds backed by loans) year to date, plus a separate $500M auto-loan deal with Castlelake. That is two funding pipes, not one.
How they make money
$1.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +25.6% last year
Personal loans
$0.56B
+31.0%
Auto loans
$0.33B
+44.0%
Platform fees
$0.24B
+25.6%
Other financing income
$0.17B
+12.0%
The products that matter
ai-powered loan matching
AI Lending Network
$11.3B network volume · core platform
it processed $11.3B of loans in 2025 and supports the company's primary fee stream. if volume grows, fees usually follow.
core driver
merchant and point-of-sale funding
Point-of-Sale Funding
up to $72M new capacity
this expansion added up to $72M in new funding capacity in January 2026. it's small next to $11.3B of network volume, but it shows Pagaya is still widening distribution.
expansion lane
non-fee revenue stream
Other Income
$260M · 20% of mix
this line contributes $260M of the roughly $1.3B revenue mix shown here. it matters because flat performance means network fees are doing most of the growth work.
secondary
Key numbers
$1.3B
annual revenue
That is the money coming in before costs. It shows the platform is already past toy-stage.
20.9%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, $20.90 stayed after operating costs. That is the profit cushion.
$619M
debt load
This is the bill ahead of any equity story.
3.5
beta
A 10% market swing becomes about 35% here.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $619M (41% of capital)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for PGY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Pagaya posted $940M in quarterly revenue and $0.55 EPS, both up fast.
Revenue rose 177% vs. prior year, and EPS rose 139%. Gross margin sat at 41.0%.
$325M
revenue
$0.55
eps
41.0%
gross margin
revenue scale
Revenue hit $940M, or 72% of the year's $1.3B, in one quarter. That is the size of a real lender, not a demo.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is loan demand and funding appetite falling short of a cautious 2026 guide.
med
the revenue guide already lowered the bar
Management guided to $1.4B–$1.575B of 2026 revenue and the stock still fell 55%. That tells you expectations were higher and patience is thin.
If Pagaya misses even that range, the valuation discount to the 24.4x peer average stops looking temporary.
med
most of the revenue mix depends on network fees
Network fees account for $1.04B, or 80% of the revenue mix shown on this page. If lender partners or investors pull back, the model feels it quickly.
This is not a subscription business. A slowdown in funded loan volume would hit the largest revenue line first.
med
$619M of debt leaves less room for mistakes
Long-term debt is 41% of capital while price stability is just 5 / 100. That's a rough combination in a business tied to credit conditions.
You do not need a balance sheet crisis for this to matter. You just need funding conditions to get tighter.
med
lawsuits make recovery harder
Investor-claim investigations and an active antitrust matter keep legal risk in the story. Even if the dollars end up manageable, the distraction is real.
When trust is already fragile, legal overhang can keep the multiple compressed longer than fundamentals alone would suggest.
With $1.04B of network-fee revenue, $619M of debt, and a stock that already dropped 55% on guidance, PGY does not need a disaster to stay volatile. It just needs credit conditions to remain ordinary instead of great.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
q1 2026 earnings report
Estimated for May 6, 2026. This is the first real check on whether the $1.4B–$1.575B full-year guide was conservative or just weak.
volume
q1 2026 network volume
Guidance is $2.5B. In human-speak: this is the leading indicator for fee revenue before the income statement catches up.
margin
gross margin holding near 41%
A stable margin would support the software-platform argument. A drop would make PGY look more like a cyclical credit processor than management wants.
legal
securities and antitrust developments
The legal story is unlikely to drive revenue, but it can drive sentiment. For a stock with 5 / 100 price stability, that still matters.
Analyst rankings
consensus target
$28.10
about 13.6% above the current $24.74 price. in human-speak, analysts think the sell-off went too far, but not by enough to call this easy money.
valuation
11.7x
the stock trades at roughly half the 24.4x peer average. you're being paid for uncertainty, not getting a free pass around it.
volatility
3.5 beta
when the market moves, PGY tends to move more. this is a momentum-sensitive small cap, not a sleepy compounding machine.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for PGY is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$25
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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