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what it is
Provident is a regional bank that takes deposits and turns them into property and business loans across New Jersey and nearby markets.
how it gets paid
Last year Provident Financial made $73M in revenue. Commercial mortgage loans was the main engine at $28.5M, or 39% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.1% last year. The lift came with a 12 basis point expansion in net interest margin to 3.43% from 3.31%.
what just happened
Provident posted a better quarter, with EPS rising to $0.55 from $0.36 a year earlier.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
Provident is a regional bank that takes deposits and turns them into property and business loans across New Jersey and nearby markets.
This is a local bank with 94 branches in northern and central New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Queens County. That matters because banking is still a trust business. If your business loan, checking account, and landlord relationship all sit in one place, moving your money gets annoying fast.
How they make money
$73M
annual revenue · their business grew +7.1% last year
Commercial mortgage loans
$28.5M
Commercial business loans
$17.5M
Multifamily loans
$13.1M
Residential mortgage loans
$7.3M
Construction loans
$3.7M
Consumer loans
$2.9M
The products that matter
commercial lending
Commercial real estate loans
75% max ltv
The bank caps underwriting at 75% loan-to-value. That is the guardrail you care about when commercial real estate is the top risk.
credit watch
consumer banking
Provident Bank retail
supports the $637M spread engine
Branches and deposits are not flashy. They matter because net interest income produced $637M, or 76.1% of total revenue.
core funding
wealth management
Beacon Trust Company
part of the $200M fee mix
Fee income totaled $200M, or 23.9% of revenue. Beacon matters because that slice is already small, and leadership turnover in March 2026 does not help.
execution risk
Key numbers
53%
q3 eps growth
Third-quarter EPS rose to $0.55 from $0.36. More profit per share means the bank's earnings recovered fast vs. prior year.
3.43%
net interest margin
Net interest margin → profit on loans after funding costs → so what: this is the core engine, and it improved from 3.31%.
4.9%
dividend yield
You are being paid nearly 5% a year to wait, which matters when the stock's 18-month target only implies 14% upside.
115%
loss reserve coverage
Allowance for loan losses covered 115% of nonperforming loans at 12/31/24, which means reserves slightly exceed current bad-loan balances.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- net profit margin 21.3% — keeps 21 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PFS 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,850.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Provident posted a better quarter, with EPS rising to $0.55 from $0.36 a year earlier.
The lift came with a 12 basis point expansion in net interest margin to 3.43% from 3.31%. Plain English: the bank made more money on every loan dollar after funding costs.
$18M
revenue
$1.59
eps
21.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was 3.43% net interest margin because that tells you the core lending business got more profitable.
-
provident financial registered a better-than-expected third-quarter bottom-line result.
-
share earnings grew 53% vs. prior year, to $0.55, compared with $0.36 in the year-ago period.performance was supported by low single-digit gains in net interest income and non-interest income sequentially.
-
net interest margin expanded 12 basis points to 3.43% for the quarter, compared with 3.31% in the prior-year period, benefiting from improved asset yields and a reduction in funding costs. Total loans tallied at $19.3 billion, with commercial lending accounting for a sizable share of the portfolio.
-
as of september 30, 2025, commercial loans, including mortgage warehouse lines, commercial mortgage, multifamily, and construction loans, represented 86.6% of total loans, up from 85.9% at year-end 2024.
-
commercial real estate exposure remains notable, totaling $11.6 billion, or 60% of gross loans.this category is inherently more sensitive to economic conditions, which elevates risk should growth slow or credit conditions tighten. Deposit trends were also favorable. over the nine-month period ending september 30th, total deposits rose $472.4 million, to $19.1 billion.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is commercial real estate credit quality in its core footprint.
high
commercial real estate concentration
Management highlights a maximum 75% loan-to-value limit. That is the buffer. The problem is simple: if property values fall and borrowers weaken at the same time, loss provisions can rise before collateral math saves you.
This hits the heart of the thesis because spread income accounts for 76.1% of revenue.
med
too much dependence on net interest income
Net interest income was $637M, or 76.1% of total revenue. That is profitable today. It also means a funding squeeze or loan repricing issue flows quickly into earnings.
When three-quarters of revenue come from the spread, diversification is thinner than it looks.
med
fee business execution risk
Non-interest income is only $200M, or 23.9% of revenue, and Beacon Trust just had a leadership exit. That does not break the bank, but it does make diversification harder right when investors want proof of stability.
If the fee side stalls, PFS looks even more like a plain regional lender.
With 76.1% of revenue tied to net interest income and only 23.9% from fees, a credit wobble or funding squeeze lands straight in earnings.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
eps needs to move from $1.95 toward $2.10
That is the cleanest scoreboard on the page. If 2026 earnings stall below the current estimate, the valuation stops looking cheap and starts looking correct.
risk
commercial real estate underwriting discipline
The bank cites a 75% maximum loan-to-value. You want to see that discipline hold when credit conditions get less friendly.
cal
buyback execution after the 2.81M-share authorization
Authorization headlines are easy. Actual repurchases tell you whether management thinks the stock is cheap enough to act.
trend
institutional buying streak
Institutions were net buyers for two straight quarters, with 132 buyers versus 110 sellers in 3q2025. If that continues, sentiment can catch up with the fundamentals.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving like the rest of the market, not one sending a loud signal.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means typical risk for a listed stock — neither a bunker nor a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3 says the chart is fine, not special. The stock is not breaking out of anything dramatic.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
The numbers are usable, but not smooth. You should expect more noise here than in a top-tier bank.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 132 buyers vs. 110 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 93.7M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$16
$31
$21
current price
$24
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+65% · 17% ann'l return)
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