XVARY Composite Score
56
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
It delivers food and supplies to restaurants, convenience stores, and specialty buyers across the U.S.
How it gets paid
Last year Performance Food made $63.3B in revenue. Foodservice was the main engine at $33.5B, or 53% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.6% last year. The filing showed $33.5B of revenue, up 104% vs.
What just happened
The latest quarter missed by 10.9%, with EPS at $0.98 versus the $1.10 estimate.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
20.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 56/100 — below average
What They Do
It delivers food and supplies to restaurants, convenience stores, and specialty buyers across the U.S.
It owns 155 distribution centers, which are warehouses that break bulk and ship orders. Your restaurant, convenience store, and specialty orders ride the same network, and 43,000 employees keep it moving for 300,000 customers. That scale makes walking away expensive.
How They Make Money
$63.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.6% last year
Foodservice
$33.5B
Convenience
$24.7B
Specialty
$5.1B
The Products That Matter
Moves product to foodservice customers
Food & Beverage Distribution
$33.5B revenue · entire business
it's the whole $33.5B operation, and it only keeps 1.2 cents for every dollar that passes through the system.
1.2% margin
Key Numbers
$63.3B
annual revenue
You are buying a $63.3B delivery machine, not a sleepy food brand.
1.3%
net margin
Only $1.30 survives every $100 of sales. That is why small cost moves matter.
3.0%
operating margin
After running the business, just 3.0% is left. The spread from 11.9% gross margin is the whole story.
$5.6B
long-term debt
Debt is 28% of capital, so refinancing costs can bite a thin-margin business.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $5.6B (28% of capital)
- net profit margin 1.3% — keeps 1 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in PFGC 3 years ago → it's now worth $15500.
The index would have given you $13920.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter missed by 10.9%, with EPS at $0.98 versus the $1.10 estimate.
The filing showed $33.5B of revenue, up 104% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 11.9%. also said fiscal 2026 started with sales up 10.8% while adjusted EPS rose only 1.7% to $1.18, so costs are still loud.
$33.5B
revenue
$0.98
eps
11.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.98 EPS print mattered more than the big revenue number because the business kept only 1.3% of sales as net profit.
-
Performance food group has terminated its merger talks with rival us foods.recall that on september 16th, the companies entered an information sharing arrangement to evaluate the regulatory considerations and potential of a tie-up, causing speculation that a merger between two of the country’s largest foodservice distributors was in the works. on november 24th, the companies mutually agreed to end discussions, with pfgc stating that it will no longer pursue this potential business combination. note that performance food leadership had been pressured by investment firm sachem head capital management to explore a combination with us foods, or other alternatives to improve margins.
-
Meanwhile, the company got off to a mixed start in fiscal 2026. (year concludes on june 27th.) sales jumped 10.8% in the fiscal first quarter, vs. prior year, to $17.1 billion.the progress was driven by recent acquisitions, including the october, 2024 buyout of cheney brothers. case growth, better pricing, and a favorable mix of products, customers, and channels also contributed.
-
Adjusted earnings edged up a more-modest 1.7%, to $1.18 per share, as operating expenses (+15.7%) and the cost of capital (+56.3%) eroded margins.
-
The balance sheet is in decent shape, though the use of leverage has increased.
-
Total debt expanded 4.6% in the september period, to $5.87 billion.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The top threat is restaurant and foodservice demand slowing while distribution costs keep rising.
High
Restaurant traffic slowdown
this business lives on customer volume. if restaurants and institutional buyers order less, the pressure lands on the full $33.5B revenue base.
exposes the entire distribution engine, not just a side segment
High
Margin compression
operating expenses rose 15.7% in the latest quarter while adjusted EPS rose 1.7%. with a 1.2% net margin, there is not much cushion.
small cost overruns can do outsized damage to earnings
Med
Acquisition integration and leverage
recent growth was helped by acquisitions including cheney brothers. debt reached $5.87B in the september period, up 4.6%, so integration mistakes get more expensive.
more debt plus weak integration would pressure both margins and flexibility
a slowdown in restaurant demand or another round of cost inflation would hit a business that keeps only 1.2% of its $33.5B revenue as net profit.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
The spread between sales and EPS growth
10.8% sales growth against 1.7% adjusted EPS growth is the tell. if that gap stays wide, the bull case gets thinner.
Risk
Debt drift
total debt reached $5.87B in the september period. you want leverage moving down, not becoming a permanent feature.
Trend
Case growth and mix
management cited case growth, pricing, and favorable mix. that's the operational heartbeat of a distributor with only 1.2% net margin.
Calendar
Cheney brothers integration
recent growth got help from acquisitions. the next few quarters need to show cleaner earnings flow-through, not just bigger top-line numbers.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a normal setup, not a screaming short-term edge.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the market on risk, which fits a B+ balance sheet and low margins.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart has been stronger than most stocks recently. price is cooperating more than fundamentals are dazzling.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: expect a bumpier ride than the revenue base might suggest.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 227 buyers vs. 214 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$75
$140
$91
Current price
$108
Target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+40% · 10% ann'l return)
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