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what it is
PENN runs regional casinos and online betting apps, then tries to turn your weekend losses into shareholder returns.
how it gets paid
Last year Penn Entertainm made $6.9B in revenue. retail gaming was the main engine at $4.8B, or 73% of sales.
what just happened
Last quarter, PENN posted -$0.55 EPS versus a -$0.10 consensus, so the digital turnaround still has not shown up cleanly in reported profit.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
23.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
4.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 25/100 — weak
What they do
PENN runs regional casinos and online betting apps, then tries to turn your weekend losses into shareholder returns.
PENN wins with physical reach first, not app-store magic. It has 43 properties across 20 states as of 12/31/24, which means your customer database, casino floor, hotel room, and sportsbook can all sit under one roof. That mix matters because online betting is expensive to acquire, while a casino already has people walking in the door.
How they make money
$6.9B
annual revenue
retail gaming
$4.8B
+2.5%
food hotel and entertainment
$0.8B
+2.5%
online sports betting
$0.5B
+5.0%
icasino
$0.4B
+5.0%
media and other
$0.1B
4.5%
The products that matter
core casino and betting operations
gaming base business
$6.9B revenue · 2.6% net margin
This is the whole puzzle in one line: a $6.9B business that keeps roughly 3 cents of every revenue dollar. The scale is obvious. The earnings power still is not.
thin profit
digital betting effort
interactive push
23.7x p/e · 10/100 predictability
The market still assigns a mid-20s earnings multiple to a business with weak predictability. In human-speak: investors are paying for improvement that has not become boring yet.
execution bet
licensed real-world footprint
properties and permits
$5.1B debt · 73% of capital
The physical footprint gives Penn staying power. It also makes capital discipline non-optional. When debt equals 73% of capital, you need steady cash generation, not just more customers walking through the door.
balance sheet watch
Key numbers
$5.1B
long-term debt
That debt load matters because the whole company is worth only about $2 billion, so your equity sits behind a very large creditor stack.
73%
debt to capital
Debt to capital means how much of the business is financed by borrowing, and 73% leaves less room for mistakes.
15.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business but before interest and taxes, and it shows the core casinos still throw off real cash.
4.5%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit generated from the money tied up in the business, and 4.5% is weak for a company carrying this much debt.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $5.1B (73% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.6% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PENN 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,370.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Last quarter, PENN posted -$0.55 EPS versus a -$0.10 consensus, so the digital turnaround still has not shown up cleanly in reported profit.
Quarterly results have been choppy for two years. 2025 EPS by quarter was -$0.25, $0.10, -$0.22, and $0.07, which is better than 2024's full-year loss of -$1.66 but still far from steady.
$4.9B
revenue
$0.55
eps
15.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the -450% earnings surprise, because missing by that much tells you analysts still cannot model this business with confidence.
-
osb.
-
in exchange, penn would pay $150 million in cash and stock warrants per year to espn.management at penn stated that while it made some progress in improving the product offering, the collaboration did not meet expectations. the company intends to rebrand its osb offerings in the u.s. to thescore bet platform, which currently operates in canada.
-
the company also plans to realign its digital focus on the growing icasino business.
-
we think penn posted mixed 2025 fourth-quarter results.
-
revenues probably increased at a mid-single-digit rate compared to the previous-year tally.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The specific risk here is not abstract "market volatility." It is a debt-heavy casino operator with thin margins asking you to believe the turnaround before the earnings quality really earns it.
med
debt stays the main character
$5.1B of long-term debt equals 73% of capital. When borrowed money sits this high in the stack, small operating misses can hit equity value hard.
If you own the stock, this is the pressure point. Equity gets the upside last and absorbs the disappointment first.
med
margins leave no room for mistakes
A 2.6% net margin means Penn keeps roughly 3 cents of every revenue dollar. That is a very thin cushion for a consumer-facing gaming business.
Revenue can stay large while shareholder value still goes nowhere. That is what thin margins do.
med
earnings remain hard to trust
The predictability score is 10 / 100. In human-speak: if you think you have the earnings path neatly mapped, the data disagrees.
Low predictability usually means the multiple does not expand on hope alone. You need repeated proof.
med
upside stays capped even if things improve
The midpoint target is $17 from $14.20 today. Analysts are not pricing in a miracle. They are pricing in some improvement and still leaving room for doubt.
If execution improves only a little, your return may also improve only a little.
The bull case needs digital gains and steadier profits. If either slips, the 37% downside case stops looking theoretical.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
balance sheet
$5.1B debt vs. ~$2B market cap
That gap is the whole mood. If debt starts falling, the equity gets breathing room. If it does not, every other improvement has to work harder.
profitability
2.6% net margin
Watch whether Penn can keep meaningfully more than 3 cents of each revenue dollar. A turnaround without margin expansion is just more activity.
ownership
institutional flow is still negative
132 buyers versus 179 sellers in 3q2025 extended the selling streak to two quarters. You want that trend to flatten before calling a sentiment turn.
forward setup
$8B fy2028 revenue estimate
Sales growth is the easy part of the model. The hard part is turning $8B of revenue into returns on capital that look materially better than 4.5%.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see a stable earnings machine here. Expect revisions, noise, and a market that asks for proof almost every quarter.
balance sheet quality
C++
Below-average balance sheet grade. Translation: the business has less room to absorb bad luck than stronger casino peers do.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 132 buyers vs. 179 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$9
$24
$14
current price
$17
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+75% · 17% ann'l return)
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