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what it is
Penumbra sells devices that help doctors remove blood clots and reach hard-to-treat blood vessels.
how it gets paid
Last year Penumbra made $1.4B in revenue.
what just happened
Last quarter, Penumbra posted about $1.18 in adjusted EPS versus roughly a $1.12 consensus, a modest beat.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
97.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$5.00 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Penumbra sells devices that help doctors remove blood clots and reach hard-to-treat blood vessels.
Its core thrombectomy business generated 68% of 2024 revenue. When a surgeon already uses your catheters, pumps, and separators in a time-critical procedure, switching costs (changing tools mid-workflow) rise fast. You also get a global footprint: 25% of sales came from outside the U.S. in 2024, which gives Penumbra more shots on goal than a purely domestic device maker.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue
total revenue
$1.4B
n/a
The products that matter
mechanical thrombectomy devices
thrombectomy platform
inside a $1.4B revenue base
mechanical thrombectomy is the clearest clinical use case named in this snapshot. it sits inside a business earning 66.8% gross margin, which tells you these tools are not being sold like commodities.
core procedure
aspiration and pump systems
pumps
15.0% operating margin
the snapshot product labels are thin, but pumps show up explicitly. they matter because a 15.0% operating margin leaves room to scale, but not enough room for sloppy execution.
operating leverage test
procedure components and accessories
separators
~25% of sales outside the U.S.
accessory demand usually follows procedure volume. penumbra’s 10-k shows roughly a quarter of revenue from international markets (not one end customer at 25%). that still means fx, distributor relationships, and overseas execution can move results.
international mix
Key numbers
97.0x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how many dollars you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: you are paying up now for growth that has to keep showing up.
15.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: Penumbra is profitable, but this margin is not high enough to make 97.0x look cheap.
14.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: decent economics, but not the kind that usually justify extreme multiples.
$21M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: for a roughly $14B company, $21M is tiny, which keeps balance-sheet risk low.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $21M (0% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.2% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PEN 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,680.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Last quarter, Penumbra posted $1.18 in adjusted EPS versus about a $1.12 consensus, a modest beat.
The quarter also showed roughly $385M in revenue, up about 22% vs. prior year, with gross margin near 67%. Full-year 2025 revenue was about $1.40B, up high-teens percent versus 2024.
$385M
revenue
$1.18
eps
66.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The adjusted EPS beat mattered most because a stock at 97.0x earnings needs upside surprises, not just decent results.
-
the deal, which was announced on january 15th, reflects an enterprise value approximating $14.5 billion, with the transaction share price representing a 19.3% premium to the prior trading day’s closing price.penumbra’s chairman and ceo, adam elsesser, is to join boston scientific’s board of directors upon closing, which we expect to occur later this year, subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals.
-
under the terms of the agreement, penumbra stockholders have the right to receive $374 in cash or 3.8721 shares of bsx common stock, for each pen share, subject to proration, such that the total consideration is paid approximately 73% in cash and 27% in stock.
-
penumbra likely closed out 2025 with a solid quarter.
-
the company is due to release earnings shortly after this report goes to press, and we expect that fourth-quarter revenue grew approximately 21% compared to the prior year period.heading into 2026 and beyond, penumbra remains well-positioned to continue growing revenue and earnings at double-digit rates, with momentum continuing for its core u.s. thrombectomy business and proprietary computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy (cavt) technology. meanwhile, the embolization side of the business is benefiting from the successful launch of ruby xl, the largest and softest diagnostic catheter-compatible peripheral coil currently on the market.
-
the segment, with its recently expanded sales team supporting the launch, generated 21.2% sequential top-line growth during the recent quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is a premium multiple meeting real-world execution. international mix and distributor channels matter when roughly a quarter of sales are outside the u.s.
med
international and channel exposure
filings cite a large share of revenue from non-u.s. markets and distributor relationships—not a single 25% “whale” customer. fx, logistics, and partner execution can still swing quarters.
geographic and channel mix can turn macro or regional shocks into revenue volatility even without classic customer concentration.
med
valuation compression
at 97.0x trailing earnings, PEN does not need bad results to fall. it just needs results that are less perfect than the multiple assumed.
at 97.0x trailing earnings, PEN does not need bad results to fall. it just needs results that are less perfect than the multiple assumed.
med
earnings volatility
earnings predictability is 30/100. translated: you should expect a bumpier path than the share price currently implies.
earnings predictability is 30/100. translated: you should expect a bumpier path than the share price currently implies.
med
margin slippage
66.8% gross margin becomes 12.2% net margin after the rest of the cost stack. if operating expenses grow faster than revenue, that gap stays wide and the profit story drags.
66.8% gross margin becomes 12.2% net margin after the rest of the cost stack. if operating expenses grow faster than revenue, that gap stays wide and the profit story drags.
The business looks solid. The stock only works if growth stays fast enough to justify 97.0x earnings.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether earnings catch up to the stock
$359 against $5.00 fy2027 EPS is still about 72x. if estimates rise, the valuation can normalize. if they stall, the multiple becomes the story.
geography
international revenue near ~25% of sales
that mix is geographic breadth, not one buyer. you still want clean execution overseas and stable distributor performance.
momentum
price sitting $3 below the high
the stock is near the top of its $221–$362 range. that tells you sentiment is strong. it does not tell you valuation is forgiving.
multi-year setup
the path from $1.4B to $2B revenue
the fy2029 estimate calls for about 43% growth from here. that multi-year path is the calendar item that matters because the current stock price is already leaning on it.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
low predictability score. in human-speak, analysts do not view the earnings path as especially smooth.
risk rank
3
middle-of-the-pack risk profile. safer than many stocks, but not the kind of safety net that excuses a premium multiple.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
182 buyers vs. 252 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 36.5M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$264
$549
$359
current price
$407
target midpoint · +13% from current · 3-5yr high: $465 (+30% · 7% ann'l return)
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