Start here if you're new
what it is
PACCAR builds big trucks, sells the replacement parts, and keeps making money after the truck leaves the lot.
how it gets paid
Last year Paccar made $28.4B in revenue. U.S. & Canada trucks was the main engine at $13.9B, or 49% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 15.5% last year. Quarterly EPS came in at $1.06 versus the $1.05 consensus estimate.
what just happened
The quarter beat by a penny, but revenue still fell to $6.25 billion as truck demand weakened.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 79/100 — average
What they do
PACCAR builds big trucks, sells the replacement parts, and keeps making money after the truck leaves the lot.
This business wins because trucks break, fleets need uptime, and PACCAR owns the dealer relationship through Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF. Parts are just 21% of 2024 revenue, but they are the repeat purchase stream you come back for when a truck needs service. That is the lock-in effect (switching costs → changing suppliers is painful and expensive → customers stay put).
How they make money
$28.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -15.5% last year
U.S. & Canada trucks
$13.9B
Europe trucks
$4.5B
Rest of world trucks
$4.0B
Parts
$6.0B
The products that matter
manufactures and sells trucks
Heavy-Duty Trucks
$28.4B revenue
it's the core $28.4B business, carried by the kenworth, peterbilt, and daf brands. the snapshot data stops there, which tells you something: this stock rises and falls first with truck demand.
core
Key numbers
24.4x
trailing p/e
You are paying 24.4 times trailing earnings for a company with sales down 15.5%. Expensive stocks need cleaner trends.
16.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → percent of sales left after running the business → so what: PACCAR still converts truck sales into real profit better than many industrials.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: this is a good business, just not a cheap one.
3.9%
dividend yield
You get paid 3.9% to wait, which helps when the stock price target debate is going nowhere.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $10.8B (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 11.7% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PCAR 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,230.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The quarter beat by a penny, but revenue still fell to $6.25 billion as truck demand weakened.
Quarterly EPS came in at $1.06 versus the $1.05 consensus estimate. The bigger number was deliveries: they fell 25% to 32,900 units, which explains why 2025 finished softer.
$6.25B
revenue
$1.06
eps
16.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 25% drop in truck deliveries mattered most, because unit volume tells you the cycle is doing the damage before accounting does.
-
paccar closed out 2025 with weak results.
-
fourth-quarter revenues of $6.25 billion decreased 15% compared to the previous-year tally.
-
the decline was due to continued weakness in global truck markets.
-
new truck deliveries for the period slipped 25%, to 32,900 units.
-
sales in the u.s. and canada were particularly soft.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is another leg down in north american and european heavy-duty truck demand.
med
truck-cycle demand stays weak
Paccar just reported revenue down 15% and deliveries down 25% to 32,900 units. If fleets keep delaying orders, the recovery case slips with them.
Impact: the weakness is already visible in the numbers, and 100% of this $28.4B business depends on trucks getting ordered, built, and financed.
med
valuation leaves less room for disappointment
The stock trades at 24.4x trailing earnings and near the top of its $85–$124 range. That's a generous multiple for a cyclical industrial coming off a weak quarter.
Impact: if the rebound arrives late, the multiple can do the work of taking the stock down even without a balance-sheet problem.
med
regional softness lingers
Management flagged particularly soft sales in the u.s. and canada, and also pointed to weakness in global truck markets. This is not one bad zip code.
Impact: when both home-market demand and global demand soften at once, the brands help less than usual.
the whole $28.4B revenue base is tied to freight and fleet spending, and the latest quarter already showed how quickly that can turn.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
growth slowed from 31.5% to 4.2%
That deceleration is the whole setup. If the next few updates stay stuck near low single digits, the premium multiple has less support.
metric
deliveries after 32,900 units
Last quarter's 25% drop in deliveries mattered more than the headline EPS. Watch whether units stabilize or keep sliding.
risk
u.s. and canada demand
Management called these markets particularly soft. If that weakness persists, investors will have a harder time calling 2025 the trough.
next check
the gap between $5.01 and $5.80 EPS
Full-year EPS just printed at $5.01, while the current estimate for fy2026 is $5.80. The next reports need to prove that rebound is real.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts still think PCAR can outperform most stocks over the next 12 months.
stock stability
safer than most
stability score 2 — historically less volatile than about 80% of stocks.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no extreme signal here. The chart looks constructive, not explosive.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
earnings can swing with the cycle. Translation: this is not the stock you buy for perfectly steady quarters.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 486 buyers vs. 373 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$72
$145
$122
current price
$109
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+20% · 8% ann'l return)
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