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what it is
Puma sells a breast cancer drug called NERLYNX and earns extra money from partners selling it abroad.
how it gets paid
Last year Puma Biotechnology made $228M in revenue. nerlynx product sales was the main engine at $196M, or 86% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.9% last year. $153M mattered because it was 67% of the entire year's $228M revenue packed into one quarter.
what just happened
Revenue hit $153M, up 181% vs. prior year, while EPS climbed to $0.35.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
9.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
32.1% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
$0.62 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Puma sells a breast cancer drug called NERLYNX and earns extra money from partners selling it abroad.
You are not buying a broad biotech lab. You are buying a neratinib machine that still produced an 18.4% operating margin on roughly $228 million of revenue. The edge is simple: one approved drug, three labeled uses, and partner deals that let Puma collect royalties without building a huge global sales force.
How they make money
$228M
annual revenue · their business grew -0.9% last year
nerlynx product sales
$196M
royalty revenue
$21.5M
license revenue
$8.0M
other collaboration revenue
$2.5M
The products that matter
breast cancer treatment
Nerlynx
$228M · 100% of product revenue
It generated $228M in 2025 revenue, and management is guiding 2026 to $194–$198M. That's the whole story right now.
core asset
partner revenue stream
Royalties & License
$22M · guidance $20–$23M
Management expects $20–$23M in 2026. Useful, but still a small fraction of a business built around one drug.
supporting revenue
Key numbers
32.1%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit produced from the money tied up in the business → so what: Puma still turns a small asset base into real earnings.
18.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after day-to-day costs → so what: one drug still leaves almost $0.18 of operating profit for every $1 of sales.
$5M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: the balance sheet is lightly burdened, with debt equal to just 2% of capital.
9.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with past 12-month earnings → so what: you are paying a single-digit multiple for a business that stayed profitable in 2024.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $5M (2% of capital)
C++ — risk rank looks solid but balance sheet grade needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for PBYI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $153M, up 181% vs. prior year, while EPS climbed to $0.35.
The quarter showed how lumpy this business can get. Annual revenue still slipped 0.9% to $228M, so one huge quarter did not fix the flat full-year picture.
$153M
revenue
$0.35
eps
18.4%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$153M mattered because it was 67% of the entire year's $228M revenue packed into one quarter, which tells you just how uneven reported results can be.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is Nerlynx revenue sliding to $194–$198M while R&D rises 30–35%.
med
one-product concentration
Nerlynx accounts for 100% of product revenue. If that asset keeps shrinking, there is no second commercial engine on this page to absorb the hit.
Impact: product revenue is guided from $228M in 2025 down to $194–$198M in 2026.
med
cost growth outrunning sales
Management expects R&D spending to rise 30–35% in 2026. That can be rational if the trials work. It is painful if the core business is already under pressure.
Impact: the 13.6% net profit margin has less room to hold if revenue falls and spend rises at the same time.
med
pipeline has to matter soon
ALISCA-Breast1 and ALISCA-Lung1 are the visible path to making Puma more than a runoff Nerlynx story. Until those programs show real progress, the market will keep treating the pipeline as an option, not a certainty.
Impact: without pipeline progress, your investment case stays tied to a single declining commercial asset.
med
volatility can overwhelm the valuation case
A 9.2x P/E looks cheap. A 35/100 earnings predictability score and 5/100 price stability score tell you why that cheapness may not feel comfortable in real time.
Impact: even small estimate cuts can move a $300M stock around quickly.
A drop from $228M to $194–$198M would remove roughly $30–$34M of core revenue while Puma is also planning a 30–35% increase in R&D spending.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
Expected May 4–8, 2026. You want the first read on whether full-year revenue is tracking toward the $194–$198M guide or below it.
trend
Nerlynx sales trajectory
The key question is simple: does the core franchise keep shrinking at roughly the guided pace, or does it stabilize faster than feared.
metric
2026 EPS estimate revisions
Consensus sits at $0.31. If that number keeps drifting down, the 9.2x multiple will not look as cheap as it does on trailing earnings.
risk
ALISCA-Breast1 and ALISCA-Lung1 progress
These programs are the visible attempt to turn one asset into a broader oncology story. If updates stay thin, the market will keep discounting the pipeline.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not see this as a business that prints the same answer every quarter.
risk rank
2
This score says Puma screens safer than many stocks on this system, but the 5 / 100 price stability score tells you the ride can still be rough.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for PBYI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$7
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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