Start here if you're new
what it is
Petrobras drills, refines, and sells oil and fuel for Brazil and nearby markets.
how it gets paid
Last year Pbr made $91.4B in revenue.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $42.1B, but EPS came in at $0.83 versus $1.05 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
7.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
31.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Petrobras drills, refines, and sells oil and fuel for Brazil and nearby markets.
Petrobras produced 2.70 million boepd in 2024. You do not replace 10 refineries and 9.6 billion barrels of crude reserves with a PowerPoint. Vertical integration (owning drilling, refining, and selling) gives the company control over the whole chain, so switching is painful for buyers and expensive for rivals.
How they make money
$91.4B
annual revenue
total revenue
$91.4B
n/a
The products that matter
explores, produces, and sells oil
integrated petroleum operations
$91.4B · entire reported revenue base
this is the whole business in the snapshot. it generated $91.4B in revenue, with a 33.0% net profit margin and 60.0% operating margin. segment detail is thin here, but the profitability is not.
33.0% net margin
cash returned to shareholders
dividend stream
7.2% yield · part of the investment case
a 7.2% yield is the headline number income investors notice first. it matters because at $15.27, a big slice of your return may come from cash distributions rather than multiple expansion.
income angle
valuation setup
low multiple
7.1x trailing p/e · average xvary score
you are paying 7.1x trailing earnings for a company with 43% return on equity. that is either a bargain or the market's way of charging you up front for volatility.
the debate
Key numbers
$91.4B
annual sales
You are paying 7.1x trailing earnings for $91.4B of yearly revenue. That is a cheap sticker on a huge oil machine.
7.2%
cash yield
The dividend is 7.2%. That is cash back now, not a promise later.
60.0%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after direct costs. At 60.0%, six dollars of every ten stayed after the basics.
31.0%
capital return
A 31.0% return on capital says management gets a lot back for each dollar it puts to work.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $58.6B (37% of capital)
- net profit margin 33.0% — keeps 33 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 43% — $0.43 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PBR 3 years ago → it's now worth $22,720.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $42.1B, but EPS came in at $0.83 versus $1.05 expected.
Revenue doubled vs. prior year, but profit missed the mark. Gross margin stayed strong at 48.4%, so the business still kept a wide spread.
$42.1B
revenue
$0.83
eps
48.4%
gross margin
the miss
The $0.83 EPS print mattered most because it landed 57.14% below the $1.05 estimate.
-
br.
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petrobras has been active of late.first, the brazil-based petroleum giant recently linked up with totalenergies to acquire offshore exploration licenses in namibia (southern africa).
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both companies purchased a 42.5% stake in the venture and aim to produce oil in the area by the end of the decade.however, there have already been some regulatory bumps in the road, such as failure to receive prior approval from the country’s energy ministry. moreover, the namibia government is ramping up overall oil and gas regulations, as the location is becoming increasingly desirable due to its strong production prospects. elsewhere, the company has been selected by three major oil operators in india to supply upwards of 60 million barrels through 2027 in a deal valued at more than $3.0 billion.
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the contract comes amidst india’s push to lessen its reliance on russian oil.additionally, after years of seeking the nod from regulators, petrobras is now able to explore potential drilling prospects in the amazon basin. the multi-year project is still in the exploration phase, but offers significant upside and warrants a capital spending budget of nearly $8 billion.
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we look for healthy vs. prior year top- and bottom-line expansion for this year and the next.production levels are expected to rise, particularly with new discoveries in the campos basin and the start of operations in the buzios fields. meanwhile, increased refining capacity at facilities such as rnest, coupled with management’s renewed focus on costsaving initiatives, should drive strong financial results.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk here is oil-price-driven earnings volatility. this business looks cheap because the market assumes the current margin profile will move around.
med
oil-price-driven earnings volatility
the warning sign is already in the data: earnings predictability is just 20/100.
if profits normalize lower, the 7.1x p/e is less of a bargain than it looks
med
debt limits how forgiving the story is
long-term debt sits at $58.6B, equal to 37% of capital.
that does not break the balance sheet, but it reduces room for error if oil prices or cash flow soften
med
the dividend sets a high expectation
a 7.2% yield attracts income investors fast. it also turns any payout change into a major headline.
if the dividend comes down, a large part of the current shareholder base may stop being patient
med
the stock itself is not especially stable
price stability is 40 / 100, which is mediocre for a stock many people buy for income.
you are collecting yield, but you are not getting bond-like behavior
the combined setup is clear: 20/100 predictability, $58.6B of debt, and a 7.2% yield mean you are being paid to own volatility, not avoid it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
earnings predictability vs. valuation
20/100 predictability next to a 7.1x trailing p/e is the whole puzzle. if earnings stabilize, the stock can rerate. if they do not, the low multiple is justified.
risk
whether the 7.2% yield stays comfortably funded
the dividend is a major part of why people own PBR. that makes payout durability more important here than for most large-cap stocks.
trend
institutional buying streak
net buying for 3 straight quarters matters because it tells you large holders have not walked away from the setup, even with the stock near the top of its range.
calendar
the next real earnings datapoint
this snapshot is light on fresh operating updates. the next earnings release matters more than usual because the market is still deciding which parts of current profitability are durable.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
low score. in human-speak, analysts do not expect a smooth earnings path here.
risk rank
3
middle-of-the-pack risk. safer than many stocks, but not the kind of name you hide in when energy rolls over.
price stability
40 / 100
this stock moves around. if you own it for the yield, expect equity behavior, not utility-stock behavior.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 230 buyers vs. 205 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$12
$23
$15
current price
$18
target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+65% · 23% ann'l return)
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