Start here if you're new
what it is
PBF refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel, heating oil, lubricants, and feedstocks.
how it gets paid
Last year Pbf Energy made $29.3B in revenue. Transportation fuels was the main engine at $12.0B, or 41% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 11.4% last year on a full-year basis ($29.3B). The $22.2B figure in the feed is a quarter— do not stack it against FY revenue.
what just happened
Latest quarter: revenue ~$22.2B, EPS -$2.08.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.7x trailing p/e — meaningless when EPS is negative; use forward/normalized earnings
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 19/100 — weak
What they do
PBF refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel, heating oil, lubricants, and feedstocks.
You cannot copy five refineries overnight. PBF runs five domestic refineries and has 3,616 employees. For you, that scale makes the business hard to replace, but profit still depends on the gap between fuel prices and crude costs.
How they make money
$29.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -11.4% last year
Transportation fuels
$12.0B
Heating oil and distillates
$5.2B
Jet fuel
$3.1B
Petrochemical feedstocks
$2.6B
Lubricants and other petroleum products
$6.4B
The products that matter
refines and sells fuels
Refined Fuels
$29.3B revenue · 100% of sales
it's the entire company: $29.3B of revenue, but only about a 1.6% net margin (health line). when one segment is the whole story, every operational issue matters more.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$29.3B
annual revenue
That is the whole machine. You are buying a $29.3B refiner with a market cap near $4B.
3.7%
dividend yield
You get paid 3.7% while you wait, but the stock still sits 12% above a $31 target.
7.7x
trailing P/E
Trailing P/E is only meaningful when the last twelve months are positive— with a loss quarter in the feed, treat this as cyclical / forward valuation, not a clean multiple.
$31
target price
That target sits below the current $35.26 price, so the market is already ahead of it.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B (37% of capital)
- net profit margin 1.6% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PBF 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,720.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $22.2B, but EPS was -$2.08.
Quarter revenue vs. prior year in the feed jumped ~190%— that is a quarter vs prior-year quarter effect, not FY growth. Refinery math stayed choppy: the margin line is thin enough to make a big top-line number look ordinary.
$22.2B
quarter revenue
-$2.08
quarter EPS
4.5%
operating margin (quarter)
the number that mattered
The $22.2B print was huge, but the -$2.08 EPS said the spread math still hurt.
-
at present, the quality assurance and control process is finalized, and the commissioning phase of idled equipment and the utility systems is underway.overall, the cost of the rebuild of the facility is expected to be covered completely by insurance proceeds. management expects the refinery to operate at full capacity in the near term, which ought to boost the company’s west coast petroleum production.
-
profitability should accelerate as the company’s refining business improvement plan wraps up.the strategic initiative, which was implemented last year, is expected to generate annual savings of more than $210 million. the plan focuses on reducing operating expenses, driving efficiencies within facility maintenance and turnaround efforts, and supporting refinery utilization. on balance, we think pbf ought to remain profitable and deliver more stable earnings in the years ahead. higher production volumes and prospects for a more-supportive commodity backdrop augur well for long-term revenue and earnings expansion. upon the restoration of the martinez refinery, facilities along both the west coast and east coast ought to lead the way, in terms of production capacity.
-
moreover, the company’s renewable st.
-
bernard joint venture should contribute to the top line, too.in addition, we think the company is well positioned to benefit from accelerating consumer energy demand in the coming years, while potentially higher crude oil prices should drive healthier refining margins.
-
that said, we are not recommending the stock at the recent quotation.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is refining margin compression and martinez restart execution.
high
refining margin compression
100% of PBF's $29.3B revenue comes from refined fuels, and the company kept only about 1.6% of that as net profit. when crack spreads tighten, earnings can disappear fast.
thin margins mean even modest pressure can do outsized damage to profitability.
high
martinez refinery restart delays
management says commissioning is underway and full capacity is expected soon. this matters because the restart is part of the recovery setup, especially for west coast production.
if the ramp takes longer than expected, the rebound case takes longer too.
med
the $210M savings plan falls short
the refining improvement plan is supposed to deliver more than $210M in annual savings. on a low-margin base, those savings are not cosmetic.
if the savings do not show up, the earnings recovery has less support than the street expects.
med
balance sheet strain in a weak cycle
PBF carries $2.4B of long-term debt, equal to 37% of capital, with a C++ balance sheet grade. that's manageable in normal conditions, but not a luxury cushion.
if margins stay weak for longer, debt and shareholder returns become harder to juggle.
100% of revenue comes from refined fuels, while the company keeps only about 1.6% as net profit. that's why small operating misses can turn into big earnings misses.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
the next quarterly report is estimated for may 7, 2026. with a 5/100 predictability score, this name can move a lot on one release.
metric
martinez ramp to full capacity
management says full capacity is coming soon. you want confirmation in throughput and earnings, not just in conference-call optimism.
trend
whether the $210M savings plan shows up in results
PBF says the improvement plan can deliver more than $210M annually. on a ~1.6% net margin base, that's the difference between nice rhetoric and real leverage.
risk
the spread between quarterly wins and full-year reality
Q4 EPS was $0.83, but full-year EPS was -$1.30. until those numbers move in the same direction, this stays a rebound trade rather than a proven turnaround.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — analysts expect this stock to lag most names over the next year. in human-speak, they don't trust the setup yet.
risk profile
high risk
stability score 5 means real drawdown risk. this is not where you go for a quiet quarter.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 says the tape has improved. fundamentals look shaky, but the chart has stopped acting like a disaster.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings predictability this low means forecasts are fragile. if you own it, expect estimates to move around a lot.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 163 buyers vs. 156 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 90.2M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$12
$49
$35
current price
$31
target midpoint · ~12% below current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+55% · 14% ann'l return)
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