Start here if you're new
what it is
Par Pacific turns crude into fuel, sells it through 121 stations, and moves it through its own logistics network.
how it gets paid
Last year Par Pacific Hold made $7.5B in revenue. Hawaii refining was the main engine at $4.0B, or 53% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 6.4% last year. The number that mattered was the 116.67% EPS surprise.
what just happened
Revenue hit $5.7B, and earnings came in far above the $0.54 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
6.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Par Pacific turns crude into fuel, sells it through 121 stations, and moves it through its own logistics network.
This business wins because it controls more of the chain than most small refiners. Refining, retail, and logistics sit under one roof, and the refineries can process 155,000 barrels per day. That setup gives you multiple ways to get paid when fuel moves, not just when crack spreads stay fat.
How they make money
$7.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -6.4% last year
Hawaii refining
$4.0B
5.0%
Washington refining
$1.8B
7.0%
Wyoming refining
$0.8B
8.0%
Retail fuel and convenience
$0.6B
+3.0%
Logistics
$0.3B
+2.0%
The products that matter
refines and sells petroleum products
Refining & Marketing
$7.5B · essentially the whole business
it produced the company's $7.5B revenue base last year, and that revenue only translated into a 2.8% net margin. you are not buying product diversity here. you are buying refining economics.
core engine
renewable fuels project
hawaii renewable fuels joint venture
up to 2,400 barrels per day
management's planned hawaii project is slated for up to 2,400 barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel. small next to $7.5B in revenue, but important if you think future growth needs a new margin lever.
watch closely
Key numbers
6.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → so what: you are paying a bargain price if profits hold up.
10.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: this is solid for a refiner.
14.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → how well management turns invested money into operating profit → so what: this clears the 'decent operator' bar.
$962M
long-term debt
Debt → money the company owes over time → so what: leverage is real, even if the balance sheet still scores B+.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $962M (31% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.3% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 17% — $0.17 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PARR 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,750.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $5.7B, and earnings came in far above the $0.54 estimate.
Revenue rose 181% vs. prior year to $5.7 billion, while the reported quarterly EPS print beat estimates by 116.67%. Deadpan version: a company with a 6.7x trailing P/E just posted a quarter that big and still trades like nobody trusts it.
$5.7B
revenue
$1.17
eps
116.67%
surprise
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 116.67% EPS surprise, because it shows how violently this business can outperform when refining conditions line up.
-
shares of par pacific have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past three months.the stock appreciated strongly over the course of 2025, etching an alltime high water mark in november of last year. to start 2026, the equity dipped sharply, largely due to pressured oil prices and geopolitical concerns, but quickly recovered back to all-time high territory.
-
that said, we are not recommending the stock for short-term-minded accounts at this juncture.par pacific shares are only ranked to mirror the broader market averages over the coming six to 12 months (timeliness: 3).
-
sales ought to rebound this year, while share earnings should be respectable.the domestic petroleum refiner probably reported a slight top-line contraction for the full-year 2025, due partly to a tepid commodity pricing backdrop. but we think 2026 holds more promise, and should be led by strength from the retail segment and healthier consumer energy demand. the bottom line should continue to benefit from small refinery exemptions stemming from recently positive legislation. lastly, resilient refining margins and the potential for more-supportive crude oil prices underpins our relatively optimistic stance. despite the absence of a dividend payment, the company is returning a decent amount of capital to shareholders. since 2023, the company has been aggressively buying back stock, with $16 million spent in the third quarter of 2025. based on the current authorization, we think periodic share repurchases are apt to continue through the end of this decade.
-
an upcoming project in hawaii is encouraging.as previously noted, the renewable fuels joint venture with mitsubishi and eneos is expected to be operational in the near term. the facility is slated to produce up to 2,400 barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel.
-
at the moment, the stock does not stand out for the long haul, either.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is hawaii refining margins rolling over.
high
crack spread compression
This is the core risk. Refiners make money on the gap between crude costs and refined product prices. If that spread narrows, revenue can stay large while profit disappears fast.
This risk sits under essentially the full $7.5B revenue stream and attacks the 2.8% net margin directly.
med
island logistics and supply disruption
The hawaii footprint helps competitively, but it also concentrates operational risk. If supply chains get hit or local operating conditions change, the same geography that helps the moat can hurt results.
A business with $962M of long-term debt and 20 / 100 price stability does not have much room for operational sloppiness.
med
renewable project execution
The hawaii renewable fuels joint venture is supposed to add up to 2,400 barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel. Delays, cost overruns, or weak economics would keep PARR tied even more tightly to its legacy refining cycle.
The project is strategically interesting because the existing business only converts 2.8% of revenue into profit.
low
the low-multiple trap
A 6.7x trailing P/E looks cheap. But with earnings predictability at 5 / 100 and a 3–5 year midpoint target of $35, the market may simply be treating a cyclical earner like a cyclical earner.
If FY2026 EPS misses the $5.05 estimate, the valuation argument gets thinner in a hurry.
The business generated $7.5B in revenue last year, but the real exposure is margin: at a 2.8% net margin, small changes in refining economics have outsized effects on earnings.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
quarterly EPS versus the $5.05 full-year setup
Q4 produced $0.54 in EPS. If quarterly results keep landing that low, the cheap-looking valuation case starts to crack.
risk
crack spread direction
This is the number behind the number. Revenue can rise and the stock can still disappoint if refining margins roll over.
calendar
hawaii renewable fuels timeline
The joint venture is expected to be operational from here with up to 2,400 barrels per day. Watch for schedule clarity, not just headlines.
trend
buybacks and institutional support
Institutions were net buyers for 2 straight quarters, and the company spent $16M on repurchases in Q3 2025. If both slow at once, sentiment is changing.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
Momentum score 3 means the stock is behaving roughly like the broader market. In human-speak: analysts do not see a clean short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 means middling balance-sheet and price risk. Not fragile, not a bunker.
chart momentum
top 20%
Technical score 2 points to above-average relative price action from here. That is momentum, not a guarantee that earnings will cooperate.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
This is the warning label. The company makes money in a cyclical business, so quarterly results can swing hard.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 153 buyers vs. 114 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 51.1M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$14
$56
$42
current price
$35
target midpoint · 17% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+40% · 10% ann'l return)
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