Start here if you're new
what it is
Penske sells new and used cars, fixes them, and offers financing at 353 dealerships.
how it gets paid
Last year Penske Auto made $31.8B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 309.4% last year. New vehicle revenue increased 4%, used vehicle revenue advanced 8%, finance and insurance revenue grew 4%, and service and parts revenue rose 5%.
what just happened
Penske posted $7.8B in revenue and $2.83 EPS, both below expectations.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Penske sells new and used cars, fixes them, and offers financing at 353 dealerships.
You are not replacing 353 franchises because a website is easier. Your service records, warranty work, and financing already live in one place. Penske's 14.0% return on capital means each $100 tied up in the business earned about $14.
How they make money
$31.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +309.4% last year
total revenue
$31.8B
+309.4%
The products that matter
selling new cars and trucks
New Vehicle Sales
$14.6B revenue · 46% of sales
it's the single biggest revenue stream at $14.6B. If this category softens, nearly half the top line feels it immediately.
46% of sales
selling used vehicles
Used Vehicle Sales
$10.8B revenue · 34% of sales
this is a $10.8B business on its own. It gives you another big volume lever, but it does not change the fact that Penske lives in a low-margin category.
34% of sales
arranging financing and insurance
Finance and Insurance
$954M revenue · 3% of sales
at $954M, this segment is much smaller than vehicle sales. It helps, but it is not large enough to rescue the story if dealership demand slows.
small but useful
Key numbers
$31.8B
annual revenue
That is the size of the machine. You need this number to judge whether growth or margin is doing the work.
11.7x
forward p/e
You are paying 11.7 times next year's earnings estimate. That is not cheap for a cyclical retailer.
3.4%
dividend yield
You get 3.4% in cash while you wait. That matters when the stock spends months going nowhere.
14.0%
return on capital
Every $100 tied up in the business earned about $14. That is solid for a dealership chain.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $1.3B (11% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.1% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PAG 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,130.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Penske posted $7.8B in revenue and $2.83 EPS, both below expectations.
Revenue fell 4% vs. prior year, and EPS fell 24%. Wall Street expected $3.30 EPS, so the quarter was softer than the tape wanted.
$7.8B
revenue
$2.83
eps
16.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $2.83 EPS versus $3.30 expected. That 14.24% miss says the quarter lost some punch.
-
penske automotive reported mixed third-quarter results.
-
revenue increased 1.4% vs. prior year, to $7.7 billion, supported by modest gains across most retail automotive categories.
-
new retail automotive unit deliveries rose about 4% from the year-ago period.
-
new vehicle revenue increased 4%, used vehicle revenue advanced 8%, finance and insurance revenue grew 4%, and service and parts revenue rose 5%.
-
despite these gains, share earnings declined nearly 5% vs. prior year, to $3.23.continued weakness in the north american freight market weighed on commercial truck sales and related service activity. in addition, u.k. automotive retail results were pressured by a cybersecurity incident at one of penske’s oem partners.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is North American freight market weakness hitting commercial truck demand.
med
freight market weakness
Penske already called out continued softness in the North American freight market. In a low-margin retailer, volume pressure shows up fast.
This pressure was part of the setup behind EPS falling nearly 5% to $3.23 in the prior quarter even as revenue still rose to $7.7B.
med
oem-linked cybersecurity disruptions
A cybersecurity incident at one OEM partner pressured U.K. automotive retail results. That is not a theoretical risk. It already happened.
When a partner outage interrupts sales flow, a business keeping just 2.8% net margin has limited room to absorb the hit.
med
consumer demand slowdown
New vehicle sales are $14.6B and used vehicle sales are $10.8B. If consumers pull back, the two biggest revenue engines slow at the same time.
Those two categories alone account for 80% of the revenue shown on this page, so even modest demand weakness can matter more than the dividend yield suggests.
If freight stays soft and quarterly EPS remains stuck around the recent $3.23–$3.30 range despite roughly $7.7B–$7.8B of revenue, the 11.7x multiple will stop looking cheap and start looking accurate.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
eps versus the $13.80 expectation
Full-year EPS was $13.70. The next step is small. If Penske cannot clear $13.80, the low multiple is telling you something.
trend
whether revenue growth turns into profit growth
The prior quarter showed revenue up 1.4% vs. prior year while EPS fell nearly 5%. That spread is the whole issue.
risk
freight-market softness
Management already flagged it. If truck demand stays weak, commercial exposure keeps leaning on results.
next check
the next quarterly print
You want to see whether the $7.8B revenue base can hold without another profit squeeze. In this business, the margin line matters more than the top line headline.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting more normal than special right now.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a chaos stock.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than the business narrative does.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
expect some noise. Auto retail is cyclical, and the recent quarter already showed how revenue and EPS can move in opposite directions.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 180 buyers vs. 166 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 16.9M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$133
$241
$161
current price
$187
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $205 (+25% · 9% ann'l return)
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