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what it is
It sells warehouse packaging machines and the paper those machines keep eating.
how it gets paid
Last year Ranpak made $333M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.5% last year. Gross margin was 39.4%, which sounds respectable until you stack it against the full-year -7.3% operating margin from.
what just happened
Revenue hit $239M, but EPS stayed stuck at -$0.34.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
0.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.26 fy2024 eps est
$369M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 40/100 — below average
What they do
It sells warehouse packaging machines and the paper those machines keep eating.
Ranpak's systems-based model (machines installed at your customer) → recurring paper orders → so what: once its gear is on your floor, switching is annoying. The company has built around paper since 1972, and its pitch lands because customers want less plastic and less labor. You are not buying a one-time box filler. You are buying a machine that keeps pulling through consumables.
How they make money
$333M
annual revenue · their business grew +5.5% last year
total revenue
$333M
+5.5%
The products that matter
recurring material sales
Products & Materials
$237M · about 60% of revenue
This is still the base business. It sells the paper fill and protective materials that keep boxes moving, but the company-wide 33.1% gross margin tells you the base business alone is not producing great economics.
core revenue
packing automation systems
Systems & Automation
$158M · about 40% of revenue
This is the segment that matters for your upside. Management is guiding 30–50% growth for 2026. If that lands, PACK starts looking less like a low-margin packaging name and more like an equipment name with repeat material sales attached.
growth engine
automated void-fill platform
AutoFill™ Systems
multi-year Walmart rollout
The important part is not the trademark. It is that Walmart signed on in Aug 2025. If deployment works, PACK gets the kind of proof small industrial turnarounds usually spend years trying to find.
proof point
Key numbers
$422M
long-term debt
That is more debt than the company's roughly $291M market cap, which tells you creditors matter more here than equity story time.
7.3%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit after running the business) → negative means the core operation still burns money → so what: scale has not fixed the model yet.
39.4%
gross margin
Gross margin (money left after product costs) → the products are not terrible → so what: the real damage is happening lower in the cost stack.
2.2
beta
Beta (share price sensitivity) → this stock moves more than twice the market → so what: you should expect large swings, not smooth compounding.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $422M (59% of capital)
C+ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for PACK right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $239M, but EPS stayed stuck at -$0.34.
Gross margin was 39.4%, which sounds respectable until you stack it against the full-year -7.3% operating margin from. Gross margin (profit after product costs) → decent unit economics → so what: overhead and execution are still the real problem.
$239M
revenue
$0.34
eps
39.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that matters is 39.4% gross margin, because it says the product is not broken; the company just still cannot turn that into operating profit.
source: EDGAR filing, 2026; Yahoo Finance lists last earnings actual at -$0.12, which differs from the filing data
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What could go wrong
the story is unusually concentrated. PACK needs automation growth, better margin, and balance-sheet breathing room to show up in the same movie. If one of those slips, the others have to work harder.
med
persistent unprofitability
FY2025 revenue was $395.0M, yet the company still lost $38.3M. Q4 alone lost $10.9M. That tells you scale has not fixed the model.
If losses stay near this level, the market keeps treating PACK like a fragile turnaround rather than a growth name with temporary mess.
med
too much thesis in one rollout
The most visible growth narrative is tied to a multi-year Walmart rollout and management’s 30–50% automation growth guide. That is a lot of story riding on one deployment path.
A delay, slower ramp, or smaller rollout would hit the one segment investors are most willing to pay for.
med
debt louder than equity
Long-term debt is $422M against a market cap of roughly $291M, and the balance sheet grade is C+. Credit matters here more than it does at healthier industrial names.
High debt cuts down your margin for error. Even modest operating misses matter more when lenders already have more at stake than shareholders.
These risks point to the same place: PACK does not need perfection, but it does need visible progress. Better growth without better economics will not be enough.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
growth story
systems & automation actually hitting 30–50%
That guide is the bull case in one number. If automation growth lands well below it, the stock goes back to being judged like a plain packaging supplier.
margin
gross margin moving above 33.1%
Management is pointing to margin as the payoff. You want to see that claim in reported numbers, because better mix without better margin is just a nicer story.
customer rollout
walmart deployment milestones
The deal was signed in Aug 2025. Watch for updates on installation pace, fulfillment center count, and whether Walmart expands usage beyond the first wave.
balance sheet
whether losses actually start shrinking
A $38.3M annual loss with $422M of debt is not a forever setup. If the income statement does not improve, financing pressure becomes the story.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to produce smooth quarters. you should expect volatility in both the numbers and the reaction to them.
balance sheet
C+
That grade means financial flexibility is limited. For a company still losing money, that matters more than it would at a stable industrial.
price stability
5 / 100
This stock has almost no stability cushion. If the narrative changes, the share price usually notices before anyone finishes the slide deck.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for PACK is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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