Start here if you're new
what it is
Pan American Silver digs silver, gold, and byproducts out of mines across the Americas and Canada.
how it gets paid
Last year Pan Amer. Silver made $3.6B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 28.4% last year. Sales came in at about $855M, up 19% in the VL data.
what just happened
Pan American Silver posted $1.11 in EPS, topping the $0.77 estimate by 44%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
23.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
Pan American Silver digs silver, gold, and byproducts out of mines across the Americas and Canada.
You are buying 21.06 million ounces of silver and 892,000 ounces of gold in 2024. That mix keeps your bet from riding one metal price alone. Different metals, same cash register.
How they make money
$3.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +28.4% last year
total revenue
$3.6B
+28.4%
The products that matter
mines and sells precious metals
Precious metals production
$3.6B · entire revenue base
it's the full $3.6B business today, and it grew 28.4% from last year. when you buy PAAS, this revenue line is the thesis.
entire business
finds and develops future ore
Exploration and development
supports a ~$19B equity story
the source data is thin here, and that's worth saying out loud. a miner valued at roughly $19B still has to replace what it extracts, because mines do not refill themselves.
future supply
Key numbers
$3.6B
Annual sales
This is a $3.6B business. That is real mine scale, not a small drill story.
23.5x
Trailing P/E
You are paying 23.5 times earnings. That is a high multiple for a miner.
45.0%
Operating margin
45.0% margin means almost half of sales stayed after mine costs.
1.1%
Dividend yield
The 1.1% yield means income is a side dish, not the meal.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $707M (4% of capital)
- net profit margin 24.6% — keeps 25 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in PAAS 3 years ago → it's now worth $33,290.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Pan American Silver posted $1.11 in EPS, topping the $0.77 estimate by 44%.
Sales came in at about $855M, up 19% in the VL data. Higher precious-metal prices did the heavy lifting.
$855M
revenue
$1.11
eps
38.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$1.11 was the number. It beat the $0.77 estimate by 44%, which is why the stock stopped looking sleepy.
-
pan american silver shares are up 139% in price year to date.
-
the impressive runup in value coincided with the firming backdrop from precious metals, which culminated in a seventh-consecutive quarter of positive earnings comparisons in the september period.to make things better, the recently completed mag silver corp. acquisition in early september made a solid contribution to third-quarter results. amid this environment, the miner continues to generate significant levels of cash flows, which recently encouraged its board of directors to implement increasingly friendly shareholder policies.
-
third-quarter results nearly met our lofty expectations.
-
sales rose 19%, to roughly $855 million, while adjusted earnings surged 50%, to $0.48 per share, despite the fact that gold and silver output declined vs. prior year.
-
instead, the biggest catalyst was robust precious metal markets.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is realized silver and gold price weakness.
med
metal prices still do most of the explaining
this is a $3.6B revenue business tied to what silver and gold are worth when production is sold. if realized prices drop, revenue and margins follow them down.
this is a $3.6B revenue business tied to what silver and gold are worth when production is sold. if realized prices drop, revenue and margins follow them down.
med
quarter-to-quarter earnings are still hard to trust
earnings predictability is 30 / 100. in human terms: strong trailing numbers do not buy you a smooth next four quarters.
earnings predictability is 30 / 100. in human terms: strong trailing numbers do not buy you a smooth next four quarters.
med
the stock already reflects a lot of good news
PAAS trades at $49.34, near its $52 high, while the 3–5 year midpoint target is $41. you are paying above the average long-range case before any new upside arrives.
PAAS trades at $49.34, near its $52 high, while the 3–5 year midpoint target is $41. you are paying above the average long-range case before any new upside arrives.
med
great margins have not become great capital returns
a 45.0% operating margin looks impressive. an 11.5% return on capital looks more ordinary. that gap is a reminder that mining eats capital even in better periods.
a 45.0% operating margin looks impressive. an 11.5% return on capital looks more ordinary. that gap is a reminder that mining eats capital even in better periods.
a drop in realized metal prices would pressure 100% of the $3.6B revenue base, and a $49.34 stock has less room for disappointment than a $12 stock does.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
estimate watch
$3.35 fy2026 EPS
if this estimate holds or moves higher, the current price looks more defensible. if it slips, the helpful forward multiple disappears fast.
ownership trend
3 straight quarters of net buying
institutional demand stayed positive through 3q2025. if that flips while the stock stays near the top of the range, treat it as a message.
valuation gap
$41 midpoint vs. $49.34 stock price
the base-case target sits below the market price. from here, you need better operating numbers or a stronger metal tape to justify the gap.
long-range setup
$5B fy2028 revenue path
the long-term model points to $5B in revenue. that's about 39% above today's $3.6B base, so the multi-year case still needs both execution and supportive pricing.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
low predictability means quarterly earnings can move around a lot. in human-speak, analysts do not view this as a smooth numbers story.
3–5 year target midpoint
$41
the midpoint sits about 17% below the current price. translation: the average long-range case is more cautious than the chart.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 300 buyers vs. 156 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$64
$49
current price
$41
target midpoint · 17% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+50% · 12% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive