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what it is
Occidental drills for oil and gas, makes industrial chemicals, and moves some energy through pipelines.
how it gets paid
Last year Occidental Petro made $21.6B in revenue. Crude oil sales was the main engine at $13.0B, or 60% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 5.0% last year. The 24.0% EPS beat matters because it shows Oxy can still clear a low bar.
what just happened
Oxy posted $0.31 in last reported EPS versus a $0.25 estimate, a 24.0% beat, even as annual revenue fell 5.0% to $21.6B.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
21.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Occidental drills for oil and gas, makes industrial chemicals, and moves some energy through pipelines.
The moat is dirt, scale, and pipes. Permian assets are 70% of total resources, and proved reserves carried a discounted future cash-flow value of $42.9 billion at year-end 2024. In plain English, Oxy controls a lot of the stuff you still need, and moving it is harder than opening an app.
How they make money
$21.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -5.0% last year
Crude oil sales
$13.0B
6.0%
Natural gas sales
$3.3B
4.0%
NGL and other hydrocarbons
$1.8B
3.0%
Chemicals, plastics, fertilizers
$2.9B
+1.0%
Pipeline and marketing
$0.6B
0.0%
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and Gas Production
$21.6B revenue base
it drove the $21.6B revenue base last year and remains the reason the stock trades with commodity expectations.
core
core drilling acreage
Permian Basin
70% of total resources
about 70% of total resources sit here, making one basin the center of your operating story.
main asset
chemicals and transport support
Chemicals and Midstream
inside a $46B equity story
the snapshot does not break out revenue here, which tells you where the market focus is: investors still anchor on the upstream engine behind the $46B market cap.
supporting role
Key numbers
$42.9B
reserve value
That is the discounted future cash-flow value of proved reserves at the end of 2024, which gives you a hard-asset anchor under the story.
70%
permian exposure
Permian assets account for 70% of total resources, so one basin does a lot of the heavy lifting.
$20.8B
long-term debt
Debt is 31% of capital, which is fine when oil is strong and annoying when it is not.
34.1%
buffett stake
Berkshire-affiliated entities owned 34.1% as of the March 2025 proxy, which gives Oxy a very patient giant in the room.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $20.8B (31% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.1% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OXY 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,760.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Oxy posted $0.31 in last reported EPS versus a $0.25 estimate, a 24.0% beat, even as annual revenue fell 5.0% to $21.6B.
The quarter beat the estimate, but the bigger picture is softer. Full-year EPS was $2.15 in 2025 versus $2.26 in 2024, and the 2026 estimate drops again to $1.15.
$5.5B
revenue
$0.31
eps
24.0%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 24.0% EPS beat matters because it shows Oxy can still clear a low bar, but the $1.15 2026 EPS estimate says the bar is getting lower.
-
and the remaining $1.5 billion in proceeds should add to cash assets.as for the latter, we look for annualized dividends to rise at a double-digit rate per year (with 2022-2024 being the base period) through 2029-2031.
-
as currently comprised, energy assets will get more attention.
-
fourth-quarter production likely approximated 1.46 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day.occidental is probably going to keep output at a comparable level in 2026, but rising efficiency suggests capital requirements will moderate. capital spending should fall from around $7.0 billion in 2025 to a range of $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion this year. assuming energy prices remain at levels that are financially beneficial, management intends to accelerate development of assets in the permian basin, holdings in the gulf of america, and acreage on the bagiyah gas and condensate-rich land in oman.
-
note that assets in the permian basin account for 70% of the company’s total resources.through the anadarko petroleum and crownrock acquisitions, occidental doubled its total resource base from 8.0 billion boe equivalent to 16.5 billion boe during the last 10-year stretch. these investments have resulted in a conventional oil and gas developmental pipeline that exceeds 30 years.
-
occidental shares hold limited investment appeal at the recent quotation.the issue is unfavorably ranked for yearahead relative price momentum, and valuations (even at an increased p/e multiple of 17.0x) suggest oxy stock holds underwhelming total return potential out to 2029-2031.
source: SEC filings and consensus data, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is oil price volatility against a debt-heavy balance sheet.
high
commodity price sensitivity
most of the $21.6B revenue base ultimately depends on oil and gas pricing. OXY is still a price-taker.
with a 6.2% net margin, the profit cushion is thinner than the market cap suggests
med
permian concentration
about 70% of total resources sit in one basin. that's efficient when the basin works and awkward when it doesn't.
one region carries an outsized share of the operating story
med
debt and capital intensity
long-term debt is $20.8B, equal to 31% of capital, and capital spending ran around $7.0B in 2025.
if prices soften before debt falls, management gets less flexible fast
low
inventory execution after acquisitions
the resource base expanded to 16.5B boe from 8.0B through acquisitions over the last decade. bigger inventory only matters if returns improve.
today's 3.5% return on capital says the scale story still has work to do
with $20.8B of long-term debt, a 31% debt-to-capital ratio, and just 6.2% net margin, OXY has less room for error than a 28% Berkshire stake can make it look.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
berkshire's 28% ownership stake
that stake supports sentiment and keeps the market interested, but it does not change the underlying economics of a 6.2% margin business.
metric
return on capital
3.5% is the number that tells you whether lower capex is improving the business or just keeping it running.
calendar
2026 capex plan
the target is $6.3B–$6.7B versus around $7.0B in 2025. less spending only matters if production stays near 1.46M boe per day.
trend
earnings reset
full-year EPS was $2.15, but the current FY2026 estimate is $1.15. that gap is the debate in one line.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has a harder path than most over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile for a large energy name, not unusually safe and not uniquely fragile.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not doing shareholders many favors right now.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings can move around fast. this is what a commodity business looks like when the barrel still sets the mood.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 512 buyers vs. 499 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.8B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$35
$72
$47
current price
$54
target midpoint · +16% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+30% · 8% ann'l return)
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