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what it is
Oxford sells premium lifestyle clothing through brands like Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was, plus its own stores, websites, and 39 restaurants.
how it gets paid
Last year Oxford Inds made $1.5B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.5% last year. Fiscal 2025 EPS fell to $2.30 from $6.68 a year earlier.
what just happened
Oxford reported a small earnings beat, with EPS at -$0.92 versus a -$0.95 estimate.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Oxford sells premium lifestyle clothing through brands like Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, and Johnny Was, plus its own stores, websites, and 39 restaurants.
This company wins with brands people build habits around. Tommy Bahama alone was 57% of fiscal 2024 sales, and Oxford backs that with 321 stores, 39 restaurants, and its own websites. Direct-to-consumer → selling through its own stores and sites → so what: you stay closer to the brand, and Oxford keeps more control over pricing and your shopping experience.
How they make money
$1.5B
annual revenue · revenue declined -3.5% last year
total revenue
$1.5B
3.5%
The products that matter
direct-to-consumer apparel sales
Apparel Retail
$1.1B revenue base · 80% of revenue
it drives 80% of the company's $1.1B revenue. when this engine slows, the whole story slows with it.
core engine
smaller brand portfolio
Emerging Brands
+17% in the third quarter
southern tide and duck head posted 17% growth in the third quarter. that's the bright spot — but it is not yet big enough to carry the whole company.
bright spot
acquired premium brand
Johnny Was
$61M impairment charge
a $61M impairment charge tells you integration has been expensive and expectations were too high. that is real value destruction, not accounting wallpaper.
execution test
Key numbers
8.0%
dividend yield
You are being paid far more than the S&P 500 average yield, but that payout matters only if profits stop sliding.
57%
Tommy share
More than half of sales come from one brand, which makes Oxford focused when things work and fragile when they do not.
$140M
long-term debt
Debt is 21% of capital, which is manageable, but it still matters more when earnings are shrinking.
15.4x
trailing p/e
That multiple says the stock is priced like a normal retailer, not a collapsing one and not a premium grower either.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $140M (21% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.7% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 6% — $0.06 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OXM 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,180.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Oxford reported a small earnings beat, with EPS at -$0.92 versus a -$0.95 estimate.
Revenue was reported at $1.1B and gross margin was 62.1%. The quarter looked better than feared, but the bigger story is still the full-year earnings collapse from $6.68 in fiscal 2024 to $2.30 in fiscal 2025.
$1.1B
revenue
$0.92
eps
62.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Fiscal 2025 EPS fell to $2.30 from $6.68 a year earlier, which is the kind of drop that turns a high yield into a stress test.
-
shares of oxford industries experienced a volatile third quarter.the stock plummeted after management slashed its fiscal 2025 earnings outlook to $2.20-$2.40 per share, down from a prior $2.$3.20 range. the downward revision stems from a self-inflicted assortment gap in the high-margin sweater and coldweather categories.
-
fearful of potential 145% china tariffs earlier in the year, leadership aggressively cut these lines before securing alternative sourcing, leaving stores undersupplied during the peak holiday season.furthermore, a $61 million impairment charge on the johnny was brand shows the difficulty of integrating recent acquisitions in a selective consumer environment.
-
operationally, the emerging brands group (southern tide, duck head) remains a bright spot, posting 17% growth in the third quarter.
-
despite the forecast cut, the stock found a floor in late december.sentiment was bolstered by insider buying from ceo thomas chubb, who purchased 5,000 shares after the crash, demonstrating confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory.
-
looking ahead to fiscal 2026, several catalysts for recovery are in place.the lyons, georgia, fulfillment center is nearing completion, which will trigger a significant drop in capital expenditures and enable debt reduction.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is more assortment mistakes in a thin-margin apparel business.
high
assortment execution risk
management already blamed the earnings reset on gaps in sweater and cold-weather categories. in a fashion business, wrong inventory shows up fast and gets marked down even faster.
with only a 2.5% net margin, there is very little cushion for another miss
high
johnny was integration risk
a $61M impairment charge means expectations for that brand already came down hard. if management cannot stabilize it, the acquisition story becomes a capital allocation problem.
$61M of write-downs on a company worth about $525M is material
med
tariff and sourcing disruption
fear of possible 145% china tariffs already pushed management into premature product cuts. that tells you the supply chain is not just a background issue — it can change what gets stocked and sold.
this pressure hits the same revenue base the company needs to protect
med
consumer pullback in discretionary apparel
oxford sells clothes people can delay buying. if consumer demand softens, this is not a staple business with pricing power to hide behind.
a slowdown would pressure essentially all $1.1B of annual revenue
the company does not need a crisis to disappoint — it just needs another weak season in a business earning 2.5 cents on the dollar.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
full-year EPS versus the $2.60 estimate
that estimate is the simplest test of whether the recovery narrative is real. if earnings cannot climb from the latest $2.30, the low multiple is probably deserved.
risk
gross margin after the assortment reset
with a 2.5% net margin, markdowns matter. you want evidence that inventory is cleaner and pricing holds.
trend
whether emerging brands keep outrunning the core
17% growth in the third quarter was encouraging. the next question is whether that strength is durable or just one good patch.
calendar
lyons fulfillment center completion
management says this should reduce capex and help debt reduction. the report after completion should show whether that promise reaches the cash flow statement.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting like the market, not one with a clear upside signal yet.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a chaos machine, but the weak chart says investors still want proof.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — translation: the tape is not confirming the turnaround story yet.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
earnings are hard to model here. when predictability is this low, one bad quarter can rewrite the whole thesis.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 107 buyers vs. 106 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 15.6M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$30
$85
$35
current price
$58
target midpoint · +64% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+100% · 24% ann'l return)
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