Start here if you're new
what it is
Oshkosh builds specialty trucks and equipment for fire crews, airports, construction sites, and the military.
how it gets paid
Last year Oshkosh made $10.4B in revenue. Access was the main engine at $5.0B, or 48% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.9% last year. Poor demand and the ensuing deterioration of pricing power hurt the access unit through much of 2025.
what just happened
Oshkosh beat by 31.4% after EPS landed at $2.26 versus $1.72 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
15.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
Oshkosh builds specialty trucks and equipment for fire crews, airports, construction sites, and the military.
You are not buying a generic truck maker. You are buying 4 brands — Oshkosh, Pierce, McNeilus, and MTM — in niches where replacing a fleet is painful. Access is 48% of sales and Defense is 21%, so one ugly cycle does not own the whole business.
How they make money
$10.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -2.9% last year
Access
$5.0B
Vocational
$3.2B
Defense
$2.2B
The products that matter
manufactures aerial lifts and telehandlers
Access Equipment
$5.0B revenue · 48% of sales
it is the center of gravity: $5.0B in revenue, 48% of total sales, and 48% share in aerial work platforms. When this segment slows, the whole story feels it.
largest segment
builds fire trucks, refuse bodies, mixers
Vocational Trucks
$3.2B revenue · 31% of sales
this $3.2B segment is 31% of revenue and gives you exposure to municipal budgets, construction activity, and fleet replacement demand.
diversifier
builds tactical military vehicles
Defense Vehicles
$2.2B revenue · 21% of sales
Defense contributes $2.2B, or 21% of revenue. It is the steadier piece of the mix, but it still depends on program timing and contract flow.
stability layer
Key numbers
$10.4B
annual sales
You are buying a $10.4B business, not a niche toy.
14.9x
trailing p/e
You pay 14.9 times earnings, so the stock is not priced like a fire sale.
15.0%
operating margin
That means 15 cents of every revenue dollar stays after operating costs.
$1.1B
long-term debt
Debt is 10% of capital, which leaves room but not bragging rights.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $1.1B (10% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.5% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OSK 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,020.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Oshkosh beat by 31.4% after EPS landed at $2.26 versus $1.72 expected.
Revenue was $7.7B, up 188% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 18.0%. The market usually forgives a lot when the quarter beats this cleanly, even with one weak segment hanging over the story.
$7.7B
revenue
$2.26
eps
18.0%
gross margin
EPS surprise
The 31.4% EPS beat mattered most because it showed the business can still outrun a low bar.
-
weakness in oshkosh’s biggest segment (based on sales) continues to weigh on profits.poor demand and the ensuing deterioration of pricing power hurt the access unit through much of 2025.
-
unfortunately, the company is not certain about the timing of the division’s eventual turnaround.while large rental companies have shown a willingness to make purchases, smaller operators are exercising caution. moreover, conditions encouraged the manufacturer to temper its 2025 top- and bottom-line estimates of $10.6 billion and $10.25 per share, to respective ranges of $10.3 billion to $10.4 billion and $9.75 to $10.25 per share.
-
we are more certain about long-term prospects.
-
oshkosh has a presence in platforms that hold bright outlooks.concurrently, management is optimistic that measures intended to curtail costs will help offset the negative impact of tariffs until cyclical conditions recover. additionally, there is the continued generation of healthy free cash flows, which are being used to fund shareholder-friendly policies. moreover, these factors are expected to help oshkosh roughly double earnings to a range of $18.0 to $22.0 per share by 2028.
-
despite short-term challenges, each division possesses strengths.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a longer-than-expected downturn in aerial work platforms.
med
access stays soft
This is the largest risk because Access is the largest business. Weak rental demand and softer pricing hit the $5.0B segment that makes up 48% of revenue.
If Access does not recover, the market will stop paying for the 2028 earnings story and keep valuing Oshkosh as a cyclical manufacturer.
med
defense timing slips
Defense provides $2.2B, or 21% of sales. That looks stabilizing until a contract award, delivery schedule, or funding timeline moves.
You do not need a structural problem here for results to wobble. A program delay is enough to push revenue and earnings between quarters.
med
cost pressure on an 8.2% margin
Steel, components, labor, and tariffs all matter more when net margin is 8.2%. There is not much room for sloppy execution.
Even modest cost pressure can dent earnings because this is not a software margin structure. It is manufacturing, and manufacturing keeps score in basis points.
The risk picture is concentrated, not scattered: Access is 48% of sales, Vocational is 31%, and Defense is 21%. If one major segment stumbles, you feel it in the whole model.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
Access orders and pricing
The biggest watch item is simple: does the $5.0B Access segment stop shrinking and start rebuilding pricing power.
metric
the gap between $10.25 and $12.30
Full-year EPS was $10.25. The FY2026 estimate is $12.30. If that bridge starts moving the wrong way, the recovery case weakens fast.
calendar
guidance revisions
Management already trimmed 2025 guidance to $10.3B–$10.4B revenue and $9.75–$10.25 EPS. The next update matters more than the last quarter did.
trend
the 2028 target still holding
Management says earnings can reach $18.0–$22.0 by 2028. That is the long-term bull case. Everything else is just evidence for or against it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts still expect better price performance than most stocks over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is a normal industrial risk profile, not a bunker stock and not a disaster magnet.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming anything dramatic right now.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
earnings predictability is middling. Translation: this is not the kind of company where every quarter lands exactly where you expect.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 296 buyers vs. 216 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 60.9M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$70
$193
$153
current price
$132
target midpoint · 14% from current · 3-5yr high: $405 (+165% · 28% ann'l return)
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