Start here if you're new
what it is
Origin Materials tries to turn wood waste and cardboard into materials that usually come from oil and gas.
how it gets paid
Last year Origin Materials made $31M in revenue. PET caps and closures systems was the main engine at $12M, or 39% of sales.
what just happened
Latest quarterly revenue hit $16M, but EPS fell to -$0.38, so the top-line showed up and the economics still did not.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
5.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.58 fy2024 eps est
$31M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Origin Materials tries to turn wood waste and cardboard into materials that usually come from oil and gas.
The pitch is simple. It uses non-food waste like wood residues and corrugated cardboard instead of corn or vegetable oils, so it avoids the food-vs-fuel problem. You get a cleaner story, but the moat only matters if customers buy at scale, and 2024 revenue is still just $31 million.
How they make money
$31M
annual revenue
PET caps and closures systems
$12M
up
Biomass conversion intermediates
$8M
up
Carbon black and byproduct materials
$5M
flat
Engineering and development services
$4M
dn
Other product and pilot sales
$2M
flat
The products that matter
biobased PET materials
PET 1881
commercial traction still unproven
it sits inside a business now targeting just $20M–$30M of 2026 revenue after guidance was cut from $50M–$70M, so every commercial agreement matters more than the product story alone.
berlin packaging link
manufacturing equipment
CapFormer Lines
3 lines nearing completion
three new lines are nearing completion and are aimed at the caps and closures market. if they do not convert into shipped volume, the commercialization timeline stretches again.
execution watch
commercial partner agreements
Strategic Agreements
2026 guide reset to $20M–$30M
this is the bridge between technology and actual revenue. after a 60% guide cut, you need signed partners to become paying customers, not slideware.
conversion matters
Key numbers
-271.3%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Origin is losing far more on operations than it brings in through sales.
$31M
2024 revenue
Revenue → total sales → so what: there is a real business here, but it is still tiny against a public-company cost structure.
$4M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: leverage is only 15% of capital, so the balance sheet is not what is breaking this story.
5.6%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → so what: the asset base is producing a weak return for a company that still needs investors to believe in scale.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $4M (15% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ORGN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarterly revenue hit $16M, but EPS fell to -$0.38, so the top-line showed up and the economics still did not.
EDGAR shows latest-quarter revenue of $16M, up 241% vs. prior year. EPS was -$0.38, down 245% vs. prior year. Sales arrived before profitability did.
$16M
revenue
$0.38
eps
n/a
operating margin
the number that mattered
$16M matters because it proves customers exist, but the -271.3% operating margin says each new dollar of sales is still arriving inside a broken model.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is commercial execution failure after the 60% 2026 guidance cut.
high
manufacturing and launch delays
delays and tariff impacts already forced the 2026 revenue target down to $20M–$30M from $50M–$70M.
if the new timeline slips again, the current guide stops looking conservative and starts looking optimistic.
high
cash burn vs. runway
the company has $54.34M of cash and lost $69.1M over the last 12 months.
that gap is why every quarter without commercial traction raises the odds of financing pressure.
high
securities fraud investigation
Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP is investigating the company on behalf of investors.
legal overhang does not just hurt sentiment. it can consume management attention when the business already needs flawless execution.
med
post-split liquidity and volatility
the 1-for-30 reverse split cuts the share count from roughly 162M to roughly 5.4M.
lower float can mean wilder trading, thinner liquidity, and a stock price that moves more on structure than fundamentals.
$54.34M of cash against a $69.1M trailing loss leaves very little room for another major delay. this is a commercialization risk stack, not a normal-growth-company risk stack.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
guidance
whether revenue stays inside the new $20M–$30M range
the company already cut the target from $50M–$70M. hitting the reset range is the minimum requirement to rebuild trust.
calendar
q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on march 27, 2026
you want updated cash, timing on commercialization, and evidence that the reset plan is holding together.
operations
three CapFormer lines nearing completion
completion is step one. the real signal is whether those lines lead to qualification wins and actual shipped product in 2026.
risk
post-split liquidity after the 1-for-30 reverse split
with roughly 5.4M shares after the split, trading can get thin fast. in a stock this small, structure can become the story.
Analyst rankings
coverage
thin
in human-speak, there is not enough broad analyst coverage here to treat consensus as an edge.
beta
1.6
beta measures how hard a stock tends to move versus the market. this one historically moves harder.
composite
41/100
the snapshot score is below average because the business is early, lossmaking, and still proving the model.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ORGN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$0
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive