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what it is
Opendoor buys homes, resells them online, and bolts on services like title, escrow, and mortgages.
how it gets paid
Last year Opendoor Tech made $4.4B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 15.2% last year. 8.1% gross margin mattered most because this business lives or dies on tiny spreads between home purchase costs and resale economics.
what just happened
Revenue hit $3.6B, but the bigger story is that profits are still missing.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.50 fy2025 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
6.6% operating margin
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Opendoor buys homes, resells them online, and bolts on services like title, escrow, and mortgages.
Opendoor wins on convenience, not lock-in. You can get an offer online, pick your closing date, and skip a lot of the usual housing chaos. That machine has handled over 274,000 homes since launch and operated in 50 markets, which gives it operating muscle even while profits stay negative.
How they make money
$4.4B
annual revenue · revenue declined -15.2% last year
total revenue
$4.4B
15.2%
The products that matter
instant cash home offers
Sell to Opendoor
1,706 homes bought last quarter
this is the core engine. management bought 1,706 homes last quarter and is targeting 6,000 per quarter by 2026, which tells you how much volume still needs to come back for the model to scale.
scale target: 6,000
home resale revenue
Home Sales
$4.2B · 95.5% of segment revenue shown
it's almost the entire business. When your main segment carries just 8.1% gross margin, small pricing mistakes become income-statement problems fast.
8.1% margin
fees and ancillary activity
Service & Other
$0.2B · 4.5% of segment revenue shown
this is the mix investors want to matter more because it is less balance-sheet heavy. Right now it is only $0.2B, which means you are still mostly underwriting home turns, not fee income.
small today
Key numbers
$2.0B
2026 sales gap
The base 2026 revenue forecast is $2.0 billion versus $4.4 billion trailing revenue, which tells you the market still expects a much smaller business.
6.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Opendoor loses about 7 cents on every dollar before interest and taxes.
$1.1B
long-term debt
Debt was 18% of capital, which sounds manageable until you remember earnings are still negative and housing is cyclical.
8.1%
gross margin
Gross margin → money left after direct costs → so what: there is not much cushion if home prices or carrying costs move the wrong way.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $1.1B (18% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for OPEN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $3.6B, but the bigger story is that profits are still missing.
Quarterly EPS was -$0.28, and gross margin was 8.1%. Revenue surged 297% vs. prior year, which sounds wild next to the full-year revenue decline of 15.2%.
$3.6B
revenue
$0.28
eps
8.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
8.1% gross margin mattered most because this business lives or dies on tiny spreads between home purchase costs and resale economics.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is missing the end-2026 adjusted net income breakeven target. for OPEN, that deadline is not side detail. it is the thesis calendar.
med
the core thesis now has a date stamped on it
Management is targeting adjusted net income breakeven by the end of 2026. When a turnaround thesis has a date on it, that date starts trading like a product release.
If breakeven slips again, the market has to reprice a ~$5B company that just lost $1.3B in 2025.
med
8.1% gross margin leaves almost no room for error
Gross margin is only 8.1%. That means resale pricing, carrying costs, or slower home turns do not need to move much before the math breaks the wrong way.
Thin spreads on a high-dollar asset class can erase profitability fast, especially when 95.5% of the revenue shown here comes from home sales.
med
the legal bill is real, not theoretical
The securities settlement totals $39M, and legal fees were up to $11.7M. That does not sink the company on its own, but it adds another cash drain to a business already posting losses.
You are looking at more than $50M of settlement and fee friction tied to litigation resolution.
med
$1.1B of debt feels different when profits are absent
Long-term debt stands at $1.1B, or 18% of capital. That is manageable for a healthy operator. OPEN is being judged on whether it can become one.
If losses persist and housing demand softens, financing flexibility gets tighter at the same time the business needs patience.
the risk stack is concentrated: a $1.3B annual loss, 8.1% gross margin, $1.1B of long-term debt, and a breakeven promise that has to become reality by the end of 2026.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
Estimated for April 30, 2026. The key test is whether the guided $30M–$40M adjusted EBITDA loss narrows faster than the market expects.
metric
home acquisitions versus the 6,000 target
Opendoor bought 1,706 homes last quarter and wants to reach 6,000 per quarter by 2026. That gap tells you how much scale still has to show up.
risk
the end-2026 breakeven promise
This is the entire bull case. If adjusted net income breakeven gets pushed out again, the rerating story gets thinner fast.
trend
whether volume growth shrinks the loss
Revenue beats matter less than proving more transactions can turn into smaller losses. Q4 still printed -$1.26 in EPS.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust these earnings to behave cleanly quarter to quarter.
beta
2.25
this stock has moved at more than twice the market's intensity. You own volatility along with the thesis.
balance sheet
B
good enough to keep operating, not good enough to end the argument about risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for OPEN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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