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what it is
Ondas sells private wireless gear and autonomous drones to rail, utility, defense, and government customers.
how it gets paid
2025 revenue was about $50.7M (up sharply vs. prior year). Segment mix is still dominated by the core wireless / systems lines on a fast-growing but early base.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue was about $30.1M; EPS stayed negative (roughly -$0.21) while the story is still mostly about the 2026 ramp.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.61 fy2024 eps est
~$50.7M FY2025 revenue (reported)
deeply negative operating margin (still investing)
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Ondas sells private wireless gear and autonomous drones to rail, utility, defense, and government customers.
This company sells into places where failure is expensive. It has 802.16s private wireless tech and multi-patented radios for railroads, utilities, and government networks, plus drone systems for critical infrastructure. With just 113 employees, you are betting a very small team can become embedded in mission-critical jobs where ripping out equipment is painful.
How they make money
$50.7M
FY2025 revenue (reported)
private wireless platforms
$15.2M
flat
autonomous drone systems
$13.0M
up
government and defense deployments
$10.1M
up
rail and utility connectivity
$7.2M
up
services and support
$5.1M
flat
The products that matter
private wireless networks
Ondas Networks
~$30M · ~60% of FY2025 revenue
Networks-scale revenue grew off a tiny base into something closer to a real line item in 2025—but it is still early versus the valuation.
60% of revenue
drone-based data collection
Ondas Autonomous Systems
~$20M · ~40% of FY2025 revenue
Autonomous systems carry much of the narrative because management has pointed to a much larger fiscal 2026 revenue target (raised to about $375M after 2025 results).
story engine
Key numbers
$5M
long-term debt
Debt is tiny next to the equity story. Long-term debt → money owed beyond one year → so what: the balance sheet is not the main problem here.
~-176%
operating margin (approx.)
Operating margin → profit from running the business → so what: Ondas is still losing materially versus sales while it invests to scale.
$50.7M
FY2025 revenue
This is the reality check. You are paying a multibillion-dollar price tag for a company that only just crossed about $51M in reported annual sales.
1.7
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: Ondas is built for big swings, not quiet compounding.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $5M (0% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ONDS right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 2025 revenue was about $30.1M, but EPS stayed negative at about -$0.21.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached about $50.7M. Losses stayed heavy on a GAAP basis, which is why the stock still trades on the 2026 ramp, not current net income.
~$30.1M
Q4 revenue
−$0.21
eps
n/a
gross margin
the number that mattered
~$30M in one quarter matters because it shows the business can print larger blocks of revenue—but the full-year base is still only about $51M versus a huge market cap.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is missing the stepped-up fiscal 2026 revenue target (management raised outlook to on the order of $375M after 2025 results).
med
Revenue ramp misses the promise
The stock is framed around a jump from ~$51M in 2025 revenue to a much larger 2026 target. If that target is cut or slips, you are no longer debating timing—you are debating the entire setup.
Impact: the valuation story loses its anchor because current revenue is too small to support a $5B market cap on its own.
med
Losses stay extreme
A -176.1% operating margin means the company loses more than it sells. If revenue growth arrives slower than expected, persistent losses and capital needs move from background issue to main event.
Impact: equity holders face a business still dependent on future scale while current operating economics remain deeply negative.
med
Execution gets split across too many fronts
Private wireless, drone systems, defense partnerships, and Rotron Aerospace integration all have to translate into commercial traction. For a company with ~$51M in annual revenue, that is still a lot of moving pieces.
Impact: even good technology can get buried by complexity if customers, integration, and scaling do not line up at the same time.
At billions of market value against ~$51M of 2025 revenue, this stock leaves very little room for a slow ramp.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
guidance
fiscal 2026 revenue target
Use the latest company guidance (raised to on the order of $375M after 2025). If management walks that down, the valuation math changes with it.
margin
operating margin
At -176.1%, the company is nowhere near self-funding. You want revenue up and this number moving sharply in the right direction.
execution
Rotron + partnerships turning into revenue
World View, Palantir, and recent acquisitions all sound strategic. The test is whether they show up in reported sales, not just in narrative.
segment trend
Ondas Networks base effect
581.95% growth looks huge. It is huge. It is also coming off a tiny base. Watch the absolute dollars, not just the percentage.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
50 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not see a smooth, easy-to-model earnings path here.
beta
1.7
Beta measures how much the stock moves versus the market. At 1.7, ONDS has historically moved more than the index.
risk rank
1
This balance-sheet measure says risk is lower than the stock action suggests. That mismatch is the story: financially cleaner than the P&L, much wilder in the tape.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ONDS is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$10
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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