Start here if you're new
what it is
Old National is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and sells wealth services across 280 branches.
how it gets paid
Last year L Bancorp made $3.3B in revenue. commercial banking was the main engine at $1.52B, or 46% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 25.7% last year. Fourth-quarter results capped an impressive year, with management posting better-than-expected numbers and new records for adjusted earnings.
what just happened
Old National beat estimates, with quarterly EPS at $0.62 versus $0.58 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Old National is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and sells wealth services across 280 branches.
This is a scale story. Old National runs 280 locations and just added Bremer on May 1, 2025, which gives you a bigger deposit base to fund more loans. Deposits are bank fuel (customer cash) → cheaper funding → so what: a larger bank can spread tech and compliance costs across more customers.
How they make money
$3.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +25.7% last year
commercial banking
$1.52B
consumer banking
$0.89B
wealth management
$0.43B
brokerage and advisory
$0.26B
other traditional financial services
$0.20B
The products that matter
spread-based banking income
Net interest income
$2.3B · roughly 70% of mix
It generated $2.3B and grew 1.1%. That tells you this is still primarily a lending-and-deposits story, not a fee machine wearing a bank logo.
core engine
fees from wealth, treasury, and markets
Non-interest income
$1.0B · roughly 30% of mix
This $1.0B stream matters because it is less tied to lending spreads. It gives ONB a second engine, just not one big enough to carry the whole story.
stability helper
commercial loans and local market share
Commercial banking
40 acquisitions since 1982
Commercial banking is the franchise ONB has spent 40 acquisitions building, and the $1.4B Bremer purchase made that footprint bigger in the upper Midwest. Bigger is not the same as better. That is the bet.
execution bet
Key numbers
11.2x
trailing p/e
You are paying 11.2 times trailing earnings for a bank with projected earnings growth of 11.5%, which is cheap if integration holds.
2.7%
dividend yield
You get paid a 2.7% cash yield while you wait, and the research service projects 8.5% dividend growth ahead.
$28
18-month target
That target is only 13% above today's $24.77 price, so the near-term setup is decent, not huge.
55
predictability score
A 55 earnings predictability score says this is not a machine-like bank. You are buying execution, not certainty.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ONB 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,120.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Old National beat estimates, with quarterly EPS at $0.62 versus $0.58 expected.
Fourth-quarter results capped an impressive year, with management posting better-than-expected numbers and new records for adjusted earnings. The next question is whether Bremer integration and tech spending offset that momentum.
$2.4B
revenue
$1.23
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The key number was the 6.9% earnings beat, because it shows ONB is still outrunning expectations even as spending rises.
-
old national bancorp posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
-
this punctuated an impressive year in which the indiana-based bank delivered new organizational records for adjusted earnings, net income, and efficiency ratio.the $1.4 billion acquisition of bremer bank in may represented a major catalyst, as it expanded old national’s presence across the minneapolis-saint paul area, as well as several other attractive markets in the upper midwest region. contributions from the partnership helped fuel strong core deposit growth, robust loan expansion, expanded net interest margins, and accelerated fee growth from wealth management and capital markets.
-
the company appears well positioned to build on recent momentum.following a significant acquisition last year, we anticipate old national’s focus in 2026 will be geared more toward organic growth and maximizing efficiency within its core markets. in our view, favorable trends in net interest income should remain supportive of the bottom line this year, and there is a lot to like from a fee-generating standpoint with bremer now fully in the fold (integration was completed in october).
-
elevated spending on strategic growth initiatives and technology upgrades will likely absorb some of our projected revenue improvement, but overall, earnings should continue to trend higher in 2026 and 2027.
-
capital allocation plans should involve shareholder-friendly initiatives.leadership acknowledged that we ought to see a significant ramp up in sharerepurchase activity this year versus 2025. we also speculate that the company may consider raising its quarterly dividend at some point, given that earnings streams are forecasted to push higher in the coming years and recent payout-toprofit ratios have been a bit light compared to historical norms.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
ONB is past the closing-celebration phase. The Bremer deal is done. The risk now is whether a bigger footprint actually earns a better valuation.
high
Bremer integration misses the math
The $1.4B Bremer Bank deal is complete on paper. The real risk is that cost saves, deposit retention, and added fee revenue do not show up strongly enough in 2026 and 2027.
If that happens, the market stops treating ONB like a post-deal earnings story and goes back to valuing it like a plain regional bank.
med
Net interest margin gets squeezed
ONB generated $2.3B of net interest income. In plain English: the spread between loan yields and deposit costs still does the heavy lifting here. If deposit costs stay high or loan yields soften, that engine slows fast.
Because roughly 70% of the revenue mix shown here is net interest income, even modest spread pressure matters more than a small fee-income improvement.
med
Capital return gets delayed
Management has signaled a meaningful ramp in repurchases, and the board authorized a $400M buyback. Banks only get generous when the capital position allows it.
If capital ratios disappoint, buybacks and dividend growth shift from support for the stock to optional nice-to-haves.
low
The stock stays cheap for a reason
A 12.2x p/e looks inexpensive, but regional banks often stay inexpensive when growth is mostly acquired and earnings predictability sits at 55/100.
You can be right that the shares look cheap and still spend a long time waiting for the market to care.
ONB's risk picture comes back to one thing: a spread-driven bank using a $1.4B acquisition to argue for a better multiple does not have much room for execution drift.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
21 Apr 2026 — first clean look at post-integration performance. You want to hear less about closing the deal and more about organic growth.
metric
Net interest income trend
Current run rate is $2.3B with 1.1% growth. If that slips, the core engine is telling you the deal did not change the underlying bank as much as hoped.
risk
Bremer follow-through
Integration finished in October. From here, watch deposit retention, fee momentum, and expense discipline — not management adjectives.
capital return
$400M repurchase activity
The Feb 2026 authorization looks shareholder-friendly. The real question is how quickly that turns into actual share count reduction.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
Middle-of-the-pack predictability. in human-speak, analysts do not see ONB as a bank where every quarter reads from the same script.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 199 buyers vs. 168 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$19
$37
$25
current price
$28
target midpoint · +13% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+80% · 18% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive