Start here if you're new
what it is
Outset makes Tablo, a dialysis system that combines the machine, water cleanup, and data tools in one box.
how it gets paid
Last year Outset Medical made $119M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.1% last year. Sales were up 208% from a year ago.
what just happened
Revenue hit $91M, but EPS was still -$4.37.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$36.88 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
55.8% operating margin
xvary composite: 33/100 — weak
What they do
Outset makes Tablo, a dialysis system that combines the machine, water cleanup, and data tools in one box.
Tablo is one box versus the usual mess of separate dialysis gear. That matters because Outset says it works across care settings, so your clinic does not need a different setup for every room. The latest quarter was $91M of revenue, up 208%, and gross margin was 38.1%, so customers are buying the system, not just staring at it.
How they make money
$119M
annual revenue · their business grew +5.1% last year
total revenue
$119M
+5.1%
The products that matter
hemodialysis hardware platform
Tablo Hemodialysis System
$30M system sales · -2%
This is the installed-base builder. You need machines in the field before the higher-frequency disposable revenue can matter, and system sales slipped 2%. That is not fatal. It is a reminder that the top of the funnel still needs work.
installed base
disposables, service, and support
Tablo Consumables & Services
$89M · +8%
This is the recurring line, contributing about three-quarters of the $119M revenue base. If the model works, this line keeps outgrowing hardware and gradually carries more of the economics.
75% of revenue
next product cycle
Next-gen Tablo launch
2026 growth driver
Management's 2026 setup leans on this launch. If adoption slips, the $125M–$130M revenue guide starts looking like a stretch instead of a baseline.
execution risk
Key numbers
$119M
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole business for the year. On a $60M market cap, you are paying about 0.5x sales for a company still losing money.
55.8%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business. At -55.8%, the company is still burning a lot of cash on every dollar of sales.
$97M
long-term debt
Debt is money the company owes. At $97M, the lender stack is bigger than the market cap, which is why the balance sheet matters.
38.1%
gross margin
Gross margin means what is left after direct product costs. At 38.1%, the product itself can make money before overhead eats it.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $97M (62% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for OM right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $91M, but EPS was still -$4.37.
Sales were up 208% from a year ago. Gross margin was 38.1%, which is better than a pure loss machine and still far from clean profit.
$91.0M
revenue
-$4.37
eps
38.1%
gross margin
revenue growth
The $91M quarter matters because revenue jumped 208% vs. prior year, but the company still lost $4.37 a share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Your primary risk is the recurring-revenue story arriving too slowly to matter. Outset already has the right revenue mix on paper. The problem is that the paper still shows $81.7M of losses and $97M of debt.
med
Revenue is still too small for the cost base
Outset generated $119M in 2025 revenue and lost $81.7M. That gap is the story. If 2026 lands near the low end of the $125M–$130M guide, the business is still proving an idea rather than proving scale.
A few points of gross-margin improvement will help, but they will not solve this alone. You need more placements, more recurring pull-through, and a visibly smaller loss.
med
Debt already outweighs the equity story
Long-term debt sits at $97M while the market cap is roughly $60M. That is the kind of contrast that stops being academic when a turnaround takes longer than planned.
If losses stay elevated, financing risk becomes part of your OM thesis whether you wanted it there or not.
med
The next-gen Tablo launch has to do real work
Management's 2026 setup leans on a next-gen launch and gross margin improving into the low–mid 40% range. If the launch slips, adoption disappoints, or margin stalls, the recovery timeline moves out again.
This is not a stock where you miss a product cycle and move on. At this size, one delayed launch changes the whole conversation.
A company with $119M in revenue, $81.7M in losses, and $97M of debt does not have the luxury of a slow turnaround.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next report
Q1 2026 commentary on the next-gen Tablo launch
You want a clear read on timing, customer response, and whether management still sounds comfortable defending the 2026 setup.
gross margin
Progress from 39.1% toward the low–mid 40% range
That is the operating benchmark management pointed to. If you do not see movement, the business is not getting healthier fast enough.
revenue mix
Consumables growth staying ahead of system sales for the right reason
The recurring line grew 8% while systems fell 2%. You want the gap to keep coming from more usage, not from weaker placements.
loss curve
Whether the $81.7M annual loss starts shrinking in a visible way
Here is the number that matters: if revenue rises and the loss barely moves, the turnaround is cosmetic. You need to see the hole getting smaller.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
50 / 100
Results are hard to model here. In human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to print smooth, boring quarters yet.
risk rank
5
Safer than only 5% of stocks in the dataset. That is the system's way of telling you this is a fragile equity story.
price stability
5 / 100
This stock does not trade like a steady compounder. It trades like a turnaround that still has to prove the turn.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for OM is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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