Start here if you're new
what it is
Olin makes industrial chemicals and ammunition.
how it gets paid
Last year Olin made $6.8B in revenue. Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls was the main engine at $3.8B, or 56% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.7% last year. The $32M cost-cut was the point. It beat the quarter without proving demand got better.
what just happened
Olin's quarter came in with $0.39 EPS versus $0.10 expected, but $32M of cost cuts did the work.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
143.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Olin makes industrial chemicals and ammunition.
You are not betting on one product. Chlor-alkali (basic industrial chemicals) was 56% of 2024 sales, epoxy was 19%, and Winchester was 26%. That mix means your risk is spread across three revenue streams, not one lonely plant.
How they make money
$6.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.7% last year
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
$3.8B
Winchester
$1.7B
Epoxy
$1.3B
The products that matter
manufactures chlorine and caustic soda
Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls
$3.8B · 56% of sales
This is the center of gravity. At $3.8B and 56% of sales, it decides whether the rest of the portfolio gets a chance to matter.
56% of sales
manufactures commercial ammunition
Winchester
$1.8B · 26% of sales
Winchester gives you a second profit stream outside basic chemicals. It also gives you one more place for softness to show up, and management already has flagged that softness.
26% of sales
produces epoxy resins
Epoxy
$1.3B · 19% of sales
Epoxy is smaller at $1.3B, but not small enough to ignore. When margins are already weak, a struggling 19% slice still drags on the whole picture.
19% of sales
Key numbers
143.5x
trailing pe
You pay 143.5 times the last 12 months of profit. That is a lot for a business with a 0.1% operating margin.
$6.8B
annual revenue
This is the size of the sales base. A 1% swing here is about $68M.
3.7%
dividend yield
You get 3.7 cents a year for every dollar of stock. That helps if earnings wobble.
0.1%
operating margin
This is almost no cushion. A one-point slip equals roughly $68M less operating profit on $6.8B of sales.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $3.0B (54% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.6% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OLN 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,470.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Olin's quarter came in with $0.39 EPS versus $0.10 expected, but $32M of cost cuts did the work.
Value Line says the beat mostly came from a $32M reduction in cost of goods sold. Management also expects $15M to $20M of annual pretax benefits from 2026 through 2028.
$1.7B
revenue
$0.39
eps
9.2%
gross margin
cost cuts
The $32M cost-cut was the point. It beat the quarter without proving demand got better.
-
olin’s third-quarter performance surprised to the upside, but wall street was not impressed.favorable vs. prior year comparisons reflected healthy conditions within the chlor alkali products and vinyls business, partially offset by lingering weakness in the epoxy and winchester commercial ammunition segments.
-
however, we note that the earnings beat ($0.39 compared to our estimate of $0.10 per share) was primarily due to $32 million in credits received from the production and use of clean hydrogen under the inflation reduction act of 2022.
-
as a result, olin noted a $32 million reduction in costs of goods sold.
-
management expects to record annual pretax benefits of $15 million to $20 million for years 2026 through 2028, followed by lower levels through 2032.
-
the company is probably looking forward to the new year.in all likelihood, the company will close out 2025 by reporting a per-share loss in the december period. the chlor alkali products and vinyls division is faring relatively well, as sound conditions within the alumina and water treatment markets overcome some softness in the pulp and paper arena.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Olin does not need a dramatic failure to disappoint you. It just needs chlor alkali to soften, Epoxy to stay stuck, or Winchester to keep dragging while $3.0B of debt sits on a 1.4% net margin.
high
chlor-alkali pricing and demand slip
This is the core $3.8B segment and 56% of sales. If pricing or plant utilization weakens here, the whole income statement notices fast.
largest profit lever in the portfolio
med
Epoxy stays weak longer
Epoxy is still a $1.3B business, or 19% of sales. If coatings and composites demand does not recover, the broader earnings rebound gets pushed out again.
19% of sales exposed
med
Winchester commercial demand stays soft
Winchester is $1.8B of revenue and 26% of sales. Management already called out weakness here, so this is not a theoretical downside. It's in the current numbers.
26% of sales exposed
high
debt load meets low-margin operating results
Long-term debt is $3.0B, or 54% of capital, while net margin is just 1.4%. That combination leaves less room for a prolonged downturn than the B+ headline suggests.
balance-sheet flexibility matters here
If chlor alkali weakens, pressure hits a $3.8B segment that represents 56% of sales. If that happens while net margin stays near 1.4%, the stock stops being a recovery story and starts being a patience test.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
EPS recovery from $0.15 to $0.85
That's the setup in the stock. If fy2026 earnings do not move meaningfully toward the $0.85 estimate, the "cheap on normalized earnings" argument starts to crack.
trend
chlor alkali versus the rest
Chlor alkali has been the steadier piece while Epoxy and Winchester stayed soft. Watch whether the strongest segment keeps carrying the weaker two.
calendar
hydrogen-credit support through 2028
Management expects $15M–$20M of pretax benefit annually in 2026 through 2028. You want to separate credit support from actual operating recovery.
risk
$3.0B of debt against a 1.4% margin
Debt can look manageable in a good cycle. It looks less comfortable when the business keeps only 1.4 cents of each revenue dollar.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think OLN moves with the tape unless earnings give them a reason to care.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-pack risk. Not a bunker stock, not a collapse story either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape still looks weak after a three-year stretch that turned $10,000 into $4,470.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
a 15/100 predictability score means quarterly results can swing hard with pricing, volumes, and the timing of credit benefits.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
174 buyers vs. 182 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$15
$44
$22
current price
$30
target midpoint · +39% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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