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what it is
Ollie’s buys leftover brand-name goods cheap and sells them in big discount stores across 31 states.
how it gets paid
Last year S Bargain made $2.3B in revenue. housewares was the main engine at $0.51B, or 22% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.0% last year. Comparable sales rose 3.3%, though says that benefited from a softer year-ago base.
what just happened
Fiscal Q3 EPS came in at $0.75, beating the $0.70 view in the chain’s slowest quarter.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
30.4x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
Ollie’s buys leftover brand-name goods cheap and sells them in big discount stores across 31 states.
You go to Ollie’s for the treasure hunt, not a shopping list. That matters because closeout buying → buying canceled or excess inventory cheap → so what: rivals cannot stock the exact same deals every week. The chain had 559 stores as of 2/1/2025, with average units around 32,000 square feet, giving it scale with landlords and vendors.
How they make money
$2.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.0% last year
housewares
$0.51B
food
$0.46B
bed and bath
$0.41B
books and stationery
$0.35B
toys
$0.28B
other closeouts and private label
$0.30B
The products that matter
discounted branded merchandise
Closeout Merchandise
$1.9B revenue · 39.9% gross margin
it's the entire $1.9B business, and that 39.9% gross margin tells you the bargain model is working at the merchandise level.
core
new store openings
Store Expansion
48.8% growth driver
store growth did a lot of the heavy lifting. management is guiding to roughly $3B in 2026 revenue, so expansion still has to carry the story from here.
growth engine
treasure-hunt retail model
Value Perception
8.8% net margin
an 8.8% net margin is healthy for retail, but not high enough to absorb repeated merchandising mistakes. the deal has to feel like a deal every visit.
execution bet
Key numbers
13.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: Ollie’s keeps $13 from every $100 of sales before financing costs.
559
stores
Store count rose 18% over the past 12 months, which is the clearest growth lever the company controls.
$1M
long-term debt
That is basically no debt for a $7 billion company, which gives management room to keep opening stores.
30.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with past 12 months of earnings → so what: you are paying a premium for growth that is projected at 6.5% for earnings.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $1M (0% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.3% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OLLI 3 years ago → it's now worth $23,880.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Fiscal Q3 EPS came in at $0.75, beating the $0.70 view in the chain’s slowest quarter.
Comparable sales rose 3.3%, though says that benefited from a softer year-ago base. Revenue was about $614 million and missed expectations even as the store base grew 18% vs. prior year.
$614M
revenue
$0.75
eps
40.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was 3.3% comparable sales growth because it shows existing stores are still growing, but not enough to silence concerns about newer locations.
-
earnings per share of $0.75 rose about 29% vs. prior year, and were above our $0.70 view in the seasonally slowest and lowest-margin period.
-
though comparable sales climbed 3.3%, the figure benefited from a modest decline in the base period from a year ago.
-
and, even though the store base grew 18% over the past 12 months, the overall top line of about $614 million fell short of our view and consensus.
-
shares of ollie's have underperformed of late.
-
after reaching all-time highs this past summer, the stock has steadily drifted lower.that's despite the company continuing to outpace the street's earnings estimates and its own demanding targets. we think much of the shares' recent weakness reflects the view organic growth may be slowing — albeit from high past levels — as new openings are occurring in more competitive markets to the west (e.g., michigan, texas) of its east coast core. indeed, there is growing evidence that units opened over the past two years are less busy and potentially less profitable.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is store growth and merchandising execution. this business has one revenue stream, thin differentiation, and a valuation that assumes management keeps finding good deals and opening productive stores.
high
store growth slows below what the valuation implies
2026 guidance points to roughly $3B in revenue versus a current $1.9B base. if openings or productivity miss, the multiple has less to stand on.
this risk reaches essentially all $1.9B of current revenue and the entire growth story layered on top
med
gross margin erosion from weaker closeout buying
gross margin already slipped to 39.9%, down 80 basis points from last year. that's a real warning sign in a model where buying inventory well is half the job.
another similar move would pressure profitability across the full merchandise base
med
consumer traffic softens
the bargain format can be defensive, but it's still retail. if shoppers pull back, there is no recurring revenue segment to stabilize results.
a slowdown would hit nearly all revenue because Ollie’s is still a one-engine business
low
merchandising leadership transition
Kevin McLain retires in may 2026. for a closeout chain, leadership continuity in merchandising matters more than it would at a plain-vanilla retailer.
hard to quantify from the current data, but it raises execution risk at exactly the wrong time
if store growth undershoots and margin keeps slipping, a 30.4x earnings multiple can compress quickly even with almost no debt.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross margin after the 80-basis-point slip
39.9% is still healthy, but this is the number that tells you whether Ollie’s is still buying inventory as well as the market assumes.
calendar
next earnings report
the next earnings report is scheduled for june 9, 2026. you want to see whether management still sounds confident on the path toward roughly $3B in revenue.
risk
merchandising leadership handoff
senior vice president of merchandising Kevin McLain is retiring in may 2026. if closeout sourcing gets sloppier, it will show up in margin before anything else.
trend
institutional selling streak
institutions were net sellers for 3 straight quarters. that does not decide the stock, but it tells you the big money has wanted proof, not promises.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is moving with the broader market. in human-speak, analysts are not seeing a near-term edge either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile. not especially safe, not especially wild.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. that is market behavior, not a guarantee of better fundamentals.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
earnings can be harder to model here than at steadier retailers. expect surprises, and not all of them pleasant.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 215 buyers vs. 241 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 67.4M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$90
$205
$117
current price
$148
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+40% · 9% ann'l return)
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