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what it is
Okta manages who gets into your apps, devices, and websites, so your employees and customers can log in safely.
how it gets paid
Last year Okta made $2.9B in revenue. Workforce identity was the main engine at $1.56B, or 54% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.8% last year. Revenue still reached $2.9 billion over the trailing 12 months.
what just happened
The latest print missed EPS expectations ($0.36 vs ~$0.86 here)—confirm adjusted vs GAAP and the exact fiscal quarter in the 10-Q.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
26.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Okta manages who gets into your apps, devices, and websites, so your employees and customers can log in safely.
Once your employees, apps, and security rules run through Okta, ripping it out means touching the front door to your whole company. Okta had over 19,650 customers as of January 31, 2025, which gives it reach across businesses, schools, nonprofits, and governments. Switching costs (the pain of replacing a core system) are real here, so what: leaving can break logins before it saves money.
How they make money
$2.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.8% last year
Workforce identity
$1.56B
+10.0%
Customer identity
$0.87B
+14.0%
Access management add-ons
$0.29B
+12.0%
Lifecycle and privileged access
$0.12B
+18.0%
Professional services
$0.06B
+5.0%
The products that matter
identity and access software
Identity Cloud
$2.9B revenue · core platform
it is the full $2.9B revenue base, which makes the thesis simple: if identity budgets hold, okta works; if they slow, you feel it everywhere.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$2.9B
annual revenue
That is the current scale of the business, and it frames how much room Okta still needs to reach the $4 billion fiscal 2028 estimate.
5.1%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit from the business before interest and taxes, so what: Okta is profitable, but only barely at the operating level.
28.5%
projected sales growth
That is the long-range growth expectation baked into the bull case, so what: the stock needs more than just stable demand.
26.4x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings means what investors pay for each dollar of profit, so what: you are still paying a growth multiple for a company with a 5.1% operating margin.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- net profit margin 19.9% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in OKTA 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,720.
The index would have given you $14,490.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Okta's latest report was a miss, with EPS at $0.36 versus the $0.86 estimate.
Revenue still reached $2.9 billion over the trailing 12 months, up 11.8% vs. prior year. Gross margin stayed strong at 77.2%, which means the demand story held up better than the earnings print.
$2.9B
TTM revenue
$0.36
eps
77.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 58.14% EPS miss versus estimates, because it reminded you how fast this stock gets punished when execution slips.
-
okta stock had a fairly volatile 2025.after racing up close to the $130-a-share mark over the summer, it came crashing back down to the $75-a-share range in november.
-
the shares have retraced some of the losses more recently, but are still trading about 40% off their 2025 year-to-date highs.investors shouldn’t be too surprised by the stock’s up-and-down performance, however, given okta’s low price stability and elevated beta coefficient scores.
-
as a result, these shares should only be considered by risk-tolerant types.although ranked 4 (below average) for timeliness, okta does hold above-average 18-month and threeto five-year price appreciation prospects, based on the gains we are forecasting in the years ahead.
-
recent financial results were solid.
-
the company posted slightly better-than-expected revenues of $742 million for the third quarter (fiscal 2025 ends january 31, 2026), marking a 12% vs. prior year improvement.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is microsoft taking identity budget by bundling it with broader security and productivity contracts.
med
bundle pressure from bigger platforms
okta sells a stand-alone identity layer. microsoft can sell identity beside tools many enterprises already pay for.
if customers choose the bundle, 100% of okta's $2.9B revenue base feels the pressure because there is no second segment to offset it.
med
growth plateau near the $3B mark
this snapshot shows last year's revenue growth at 35.3%, but the current full-year estimate is only $3B versus a $2.9B base today.
when the market starts reading a software name as mature instead of compounding, 26.4x trailing earnings stops looking cheap in a hurry.
med
margin support doing too much work
a 20.6% net margin is what keeps the story investable while growth gets debated. identity software still needs product spend, security spend, and sales spend.
if margin slips while revenue stays near the current $3B setup, investors lose both pillars holding up the stock.
med
trust is the product
when you sell login and access control, customers are buying reliability as much as software. a credibility hit lands harder here than it would in a generic enterprise app.
there is no side business to absorb that shock. the whole $2.9B model depends on customers trusting the front door.
all four risks hit the same pressure point: 100% of revenue comes from identity, the stock still sits about 29% below its $128 high, and the market expects the 20.6% margin to hold while growth gets questioned.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
whether $3B revenue becomes a floor instead of a ceiling
the current estimate is $3B against a $2.9B base. if that number starts moving higher with consistency, the stock gets a different argument.
metric
net margin around 20.6%
okta proved it can earn real money. now you watch whether that 20.6% margin survives while management tries to defend growth.
risk
competitive language around microsoft
listen for signs that bundled deals are forcing more discounting or slower customer expansion. that is where the quiet part shows up first.
calendar
the next earnings release
the last disclosed quarter printed $742M of revenue and $0.86 EPS. the next update needs to move the growth debate, not just repeat the margin story.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think near-term performance lags unless the growth story improves.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — the balance sheet is serviceable, but the stock still swings more than most investors enjoy.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — there is no clean trend here. you are not getting a strong signal either way.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings predictability is low. translation: one calm quarter does not mean the surprises are gone.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 365 buyers vs. 305 sellers in 4q2024. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$66
$163
$91
current price
$115
target midpoint · +26% from current · 3-5yr high: $225 (+95% · 18% ann'l return)
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