Start here if you're new
what it is
It wants to build small nuclear plants and sell you electricity and heat.
how it gets paid
Last year Oklo made n/a in revenue.
what just happened
Last quarter delivered a 33.33% EPS miss, with actual EPS at -$0.20 versus a -$0.15 estimate.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
-$0.60 fy2027 eps est
$0M fy2027 rev est
~$10B market cap
Large Cap
xvary composite: 40/100 — below average
What they do
It wants to build small nuclear plants and sell you electricity and heat.
The core pitch is simple: use fast fission technology that the U.S. government operated for 30 years. Aurora is designed for 15-75 megawatts, which is small enough for targeted industrial demand and large enough to matter if it works. You also have 18.9% insider ownership from the 4/25 proxy, so management is tied to the same stock outcome you are.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
The products that matter
industrial heat supply
Power as heat
pre-revenue · concept stage
This is part of the commercial pitch, but the current model still shows $0M FY2027 revenue. For you as a shareholder, that means demand is still a narrative, not a reported segment.
future revenue
nuclear electricity sales
Electricity generation
no reported sales yet
The big idea is straightforward: sell electricity from future nuclear plants. The hard part is that a company worth ~$10B still has $0M FY2027 revenue estimates, so investors are paying ahead of proof.
thesis core
capacity expansion upside
Future generation capacity
valuation-driven optionality
This is where the upside lives if execution works. It is also why the stock traded between $17 and $116 in the last 52 weeks — the market keeps repricing the future because the present is still thin.
optionality
Key numbers
$0M
fy2027 revenue est
Analysts still model no revenue in FY2027. Plain English: you are paying about $10B for a business that is not expected to book sales by then.
-$0.60
fy2027 eps est
Losses are still expected in FY2027. So what: the wait for self-funding is still long.
18.9%
insider ownership
Officers and directors own 18.9% of the stock per the 4/25 proxy. So what: management is financially tied to the same outcome you are.
$88
18-month target
The 18-month target sits at $88 versus a $64.68 share price. So what: the modeled upside is 36%, but the low end still runs down to $40.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for OKLO right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Last quarter delivered a 33.33% EPS miss, with actual EPS at -$0.20 versus a -$0.15 estimate.
The clean version is brutal: there was no revenue support to offset the loss. That leaves the stock trading on future plant approvals and future contracts, not current operations.
-$0.20
actual eps
-$0.15
est. eps
33.33%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 33.33% EPS miss matters because a pre-revenue company has very little room for disappointment when the whole valuation rests on future execution.
-
oklo continues to make strides toward advancing its fast fission nuclear technology.
-
last year, oklo and its subsidiary, atomic alchemy, were selected by the u.s.
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department of energy (doe) for three of eleven awarded reactor pilot programs (rpps).the most notable of these is the aurora-inl (idaho national laboratory) powerhouse, a 75 megawatts of electricity (mwe), liquid metal-cooled fast reactor. the aurora-inl powerhouse is designed to generate clean and scalable energy for industrial sites, data centers and communities through a modular design that offers the ability to utilize recycled fuel. oklo is actively coordinating with the doe to pursue authorization that can accelerate the timeline to initial operations. to that end, the doe has recently approved the preliminary documented safety analysis (pdsa) for the aurora fuel fabrication facility, marking the start of its assembly. the pdsa represents the second of three safety-basis documents to be approved for authorization, with the next step being an updated documented safety analysis (dsa) based on final design and construction once the facility is completed. oklo and meta platforms, inc. (nasdaq: meta) have announced an agreement that supports significant nuclear energy development. oklo plans to develop a 1.2 gigawatt power campus in pike county, ohio, to support meta’s data centers in the region. the agreement allows meta to prepay for power while providing funding to lay the foundation for oklo’s construction of multiple aurora powerhouses on 206 acres of company-owned land purchased from the doe. pre-construction is slated for this year, with the first phase targeted to come online in 2030, expanding incrementally to deliver the full target of 1.2 gw by 2034.
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owing to its relatively short trading history, oklo stock is unranked for timeliness.
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the shares, which carry a below average (4) rank for safety, have decreased over 65% in value from their mid-october high.at the recent quotation, the equity offers enticing appreciation potential out to 2029-2031, but only for the most speculative of accounts.
source: Yahoo Finance consensus data, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is commercializing advanced nuclear before investors demand real revenue.
high
pre-revenue valuation risk
OKLO carries a ~$10B market cap while FY2027 revenue estimates are still $0M and EPS estimates are -$0.60. If commercialization slips, there is very little present-day operating performance to defend the multiple.
valuation is standing on future milestones, not current cash flow
med
HALEU fuel supply and hub execution
The early March 2026 Piketon HALEU fuel hub update is a reminder that fuel access is not a side issue. It is core infrastructure for the whole thesis. If fuel readiness lags, reactor economics and deployment timing both get pressured.
the story slows if fuel logistics stay theoretical
med
headline enthusiasm outrunning contracts
The Jan. 9, 2026 Meta headline gave the stock narrative fuel. But a stock that traded between $17 and $116 in the last 52 weeks can reprice fast if partnerships stay promotional longer than investors expect.
attention helps sentiment until the market asks for signed economics
Taken together, the risk picture is simple: a ~$10B valuation sits on a company with $0M FY2027 revenue estimates, so delays in fuel, licensing, or customer conversion hit the whole story at once.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the first move off $0M revenue estimates
This is the cleanest milestone on the page. The moment revenue estimates move above $0M, the stock starts being judged by business progress instead of pure possibility.
trend
institutional buying staying intact
Institutions were net buyers for three straight quarters, with 310 buyers versus 255 sellers in 4Q2025 and 74.7M shares held. If that trend breaks, sentiment support weakens.
risk
fuel access moving from headline to operating reality
The Piketon HALEU fuel hub mention matters because advanced nuclear needs a real supply chain, not just a slide deck. Fuel is a gating item, not a footnote.
calendar
what follows the Jan. 9, 2026 Meta headline
The next company-specific milestone matters more than the first announcement. You want progress that narrows the gap between market excitement and measurable commercial traction.
Analyst rankings
3–5 year midpoint
$88
That sits about 36% above the current price. In human-speak, analysts still see upside if commercialization keeps moving.
3–5 year range
$85–$140
The low end is still above the current price, but the spread is wide. That's what happens when the forecast depends more on milestones than financial history.
street model reality
$0M / -$0.60
FY2027 revenue is modeled at $0M and EPS at -$0.60. Translation: the optimism is long-dated, not backed by near-term earnings power.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 310 buyers vs. 255 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 74.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$40
$135
$65
current price
$88
target midpoint · +36% from current · 3-5yr high: $140 (+115% · 21% ann'l return)
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