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what it is
Organon sells older cash-generating drugs, women’s health products, and biosimilars across a $6.2 billion healthcare business.
how it gets paid
Last year Organon & made $6.2B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.9% last year. The 18.18% EPS miss matters most because this stock only works if investors trust the earnings stream.
what just happened
Latest earnings showed EPS of $0.63 versus a $0.77 estimate, a miss of 18.18%.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
1.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
Organon sells older cash-generating drugs, women’s health products, and biosimilars across a $6.2 billion healthcare business.
Organon wins by selling three kinds of medicine at once. Established brands are 60% of 2024 sales, women’s health is 28%, and biosimilars are 10%, so one weak spot does not sink the whole ship. You are buying a business with a 31.5% operating margin (money left after running the business), which matters because older products still throw off real cash.
How they make money
$6.2B
annual revenue · revenue declined -2.9% last year
total revenue
$6.2B
2.9%
The products that matter
off-patent drug portfolio
Established Brands
60% of revenue
this portfolio generates roughly 60% of the $6.2B revenue base. it's the financial foundation, but off-patent assets rarely become more valuable with time.
cash engine
contraception and fertility portfolio
Women's Health
$1.7B · 28% of sales
this $1.7B business makes up 28% of sales, but the latest quarter fell 3%. you need that decline to stop if the turnaround is real.
under pressure
biosimilar medicines
Biosimilars
$620M · 10% of sales
this $620M segment is still only 10% of sales, but it grew 19% in the latest quarter. hadlima is doing the work investors hoped the rest of the portfolio would do.
growth bet
Key numbers
1.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. At 1.8x, the market is pricing Organon like those profits might not hold.
$8.8B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → less flexibility. That debt stack is more than 4 times the company’s roughly $2 billion market cap.
31.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → proof the products still earn real money. 31.5% is strong for a company this disliked.
$14
18-month target
The base 18-month target is about double the $7.02 share price, which tells you the upside case depends more on fear easing than heroic growth.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $8.8B (83% of capital)
- net profit margin 17.1% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 37% — $0.37 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — net profit margin looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for OGN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest earnings showed EPS of $0.63 versus a $0.77 estimate, a miss of 18.18%.
Recent results were mixed. Biosimilars sales rose 19%, but women’s health fell 3% as lower U.S. government funding and Nexplanon erosion dragged on growth.
$1.6B
revenue
$1.50
eps
54.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 18.18% EPS miss matters most because this stock only works if investors trust the earnings stream, and right now they do not fully trust it.
-
organon posted better-than-expected third-quarter results.adjusted earnings of $1.01 a share on revenues of $1.60 billion surpassed our estimates by $0.14 and about $25 million, respectively.
-
much of the upside came from cost-control benefits and strength in the biosimilars business, where sales increased 19% on the back of growing demand for rheumatoid arthritis drug hadlima.
-
this helped to mitigate weakness in its women’s health division (sales -3%), which was pressured by erosion in the nexplanon franchise.
-
this was driven in large part by decreased funding of government programs in the u.s.
-
the near-term outlook appears challenging.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is cash-flow erosion in established brands while debt stays at $8.8B.
med
deleveraging risk
long-term debt is $8.8B, equal to 83% of capital, on a company worth about $2B in the market. that leaves less room for operating misses.
if cash generation weakens, the stock stays trapped in a leverage discount no matter how low the p/e looks.
med
women's health erosion
women's health is 28% of sales, and the latest quarter fell 3% as nexplanon faced pressure and government-program funding softened.
a shrinking core franchise makes it much harder for the company to fund debt reduction and new growth at the same time.
med
biosimilars not scaling fast enough
biosimilars grew 19%, which is good. they still represent only about 10% of sales, so good is not the same as sufficient.
if the $620M growth engine stalls, investors are left with a mature portfolio and a leveraged balance sheet. that's not a rerating recipe.
if the 60% legacy base erodes faster than the 10% biosimilars business scales, the 1.8x multiple is not cheap — it's leverage math.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt vs. cash generation
$8.8B of long-term debt is the number hanging over everything else. if operating performance improves but leverage does not, the equity story stays constrained.
trend
women's health stabilization
the latest quarter fell 3%. you want to see that decline flatten out, because a turnaround needs at least one big segment to stop sliding.
risk
biosimilars after the 19% jump
hadlima helped drive 19% growth. the next question is whether that pace continues long enough to matter against a much larger legacy base.
calendar
next guidance reset
watch the next earnings update for management's revenue and profit framing around the current ~$6B 2026 revenue expectation and $3.95 EPS setup.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a clear near-term edge yet.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. you are not buying a bunker stock, but this is not total chaos either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. the chart is not giving you a rescue narrative on its own.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 216 buyers vs. 308 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$6
$22
$7
current price
$14
target midpoint · +99% from current · 3-5yr high: $20 (+185% · 31% ann'l return)
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