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what it is
Nexstar owns TV stations, cable channels, and news sites that sell ads and collect carriage fees from pay-TV distributors.
how it gets paid
Last year Nexstar Media Grp made $4.9B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 8.5% last year. In all, earnings per share probably tumbled nearly 46% from the prior year, while revenues declined 10%.
what just happened
Nexstar posted $3.7B in quarterly revenue and $8.57 in EPS, a huge rebound helped by the election cycle.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Nexstar owns TV stations, cable channels, and news sites that sell ads and collect carriage fees from pay-TV distributors.
You do not need every screen if you already reach 70% of U.S. households across 200 stations in 116 markets. Scale → more viewers and more leverage with advertisers and distributors → so what: bigger reach helps Nexstar get paid by both sides of the TV pipe. Add a 75% stake in The CW and a 31.3% stake in TV Food Network, and you are looking at a company with local reach plus national inventory.
How they make money
$4.9B
annual revenue · revenue declined -8.5% last year
total revenue
$4.9B
8.5%
The products that matter
local television advertising and carriage fees
Broadcast TV
$4.9B revenue
it is the whole reported business on this page: $4.9B in annual revenue with a 13.7% net margin. if local ad markets soften or pay-tv fees flatten, you feel it fast.
core cash flow
Key numbers
$6.2B
long-term debt
Debt equals 49% of capital, which means your upside depends on steady cash generation, not just good headlines.
25.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Nexstar keeps 25 cents of every revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
$25.00
FY2026 EPS est.
That estimate is the rebound case after a weak 2025, so your thesis depends on earnings actually snapping back.
3.8%
dividend yield
You are getting paid to wait, which matters more when the stock only has about 10% upside to the $232 18-month target.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $6.2B (49% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.5% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NXST 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,920.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Nexstar posted $3.7B in quarterly revenue and $8.57 in EPS, a huge rebound helped by the election cycle.
The quarter showed what this business looks like when political ads show up. Latest-quarter revenue rose 206% vs. prior year, and EPS climbed 300% vs. prior year, according to SEC filing data.
$3.7B
revenue
$8.57
eps
118.09%
surprise
the number that mattered
$8.57 in EPS matters because it shows how violently Nexstar's profit engine expands when election spending returns.
-
nexstar likely put in a soft performance in 2025.
-
in all, earnings per share probably tumbled nearly 46% from the prior year, while revenues declined 10%.
-
to review, 2024 was a banner year for the media company, thanks to a surge in political ad spending surrounding u.s. elections.nevertheless, nexstar's lackluster comparisons over the past few quarters were tempered somewhat by decent non-political ad revenues and distribution revenues, combined with ongoing cost controls.
-
the company is poised to rebound this year.accretive distribution renewals, contributions from the forthcoming tegna acquisition, the robust opportunity from the 2026 midterm elections, and management's other growth efforts should spur totals in the coming quarters.
-
all told, we look for profits to more than double this year, while the top line bounces back between 10% and 15%.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is local advertising weakness colliding with a $6.2B debt load.
med
advertising is the first budget companies cut
nexstar sells into local ad markets, and those markets get hit early when small businesses get cautious. that makes reported growth look strong in good stretches and fragile in bad ones.
with a 13.7% net margin on $4.9B of revenue, a softer ad market would hit earnings faster than it hits headlines.
med
cord-cutting pressures distributor fees
part of the business depends on pay-tv systems continuing to carry local stations and pay for them. fewer subscribers means less room for fee growth.
if that fee stream slows while advertising also cools, the stock stops looking like a yield story and starts looking like an ex-growth broadcaster.
med
debt limits your margin for error
long-term debt sits at $6.2B, or 49% of capital. that is manageable when cash flow is working. it is less comfortable when results get lumpy.
the quiet part: leverage is fine until the business reminding you it is cyclical meets the balance sheet reminding you it is levered.
the risk picture is not abstract: $6.2B of long-term debt sits against a $4.9B revenue base, so a weak ad cycle would pressure both earnings power and valuation at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether revenue can stay near the $5B estimate
the street only expects about 2% growth from $4.9B to $5B. if nexstar misses even that, the low multiple starts making sense for the wrong reason.
risk
signs of local ad softness
this is the first crack to watch. if local advertisers pull back, a 13.7% net margin has less cushion than the 3.8% yield makes it seem.
calendar
the next earnings print after the $3.04 Q4 EPS beat
one good quarter is useful. two in a row starts to look like a trend. you want to see whether full-year momentum catches up to the $25.00 EPS expectation.
trend
institutional buying staying positive
three straight quarters of net buying helps. if that trend fades while fundamentals stay mixed, the support under the stock gets thinner.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, the stock is not sending a clean near-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — you are not in a bunker stock, but you are not in a rollercoaster either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance over the next year.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings predictability is below average. translation: good quarters happen, but do not confuse that with smooth operating results.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 252 buyers vs. 200 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 31.5M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$165
$299
$211
current price
$232
target midpoint · +10% from current · 3-5yr high: $325 (+55% · 15% ann'l return)
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