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what it is
NorthWestern sells electricity and natural gas to about 775,300 customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
how it gets paid
Last year Northwestern made $1.6B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 288.8% last year. The key number was the −39.5% EPS miss versus estimates.
what just happened
NorthWestern posted $0.72 EPS, falling short of the $1.19 estimate (−39.5% miss) even as revenue rose 11% to $414 million.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
18.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
NorthWestern sells electricity and natural gas to about 775,300 customers across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
This is a regulated utility. Plain English: your town usually gets one power and gas provider, and you do not comparison-shop for a second set of wires. NorthWestern serves 467,700 electric customers and 307,600 gas customers, so once you are on the system, leaving is basically moving houses.
How they make money
$1.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +288.8% last year
total revenue
$1.6B
+288.8%
The products that matter
regulated electricity service
electric utility
467,700 electric customers disclosed
this is the clearest operating number on the page. 467,700 electric customers tell you the business starts with captive demand, not discretionary spending.
core utility base
regulated natural gas service
natural gas utility
part of the $1.6B revenue base
the company sells gas alongside electricity, but this page does not break out segment dollars. that thin disclosure matters because it limits how precisely you can underwrite mix and margins.
data is thin
Key numbers
$3.0B
long-term debt
Debt equals about 75% of the company's roughly $4 billion market cap, which limits flexibility if rates stay high.
3.9%
dividend yield
You are being paid to wait, but the payout is only useful if earnings keep covering it.
18.2x
trailing p/e
That multiple is fair for a stable utility, not cheap for one with merger uncertainty and a recent earnings miss.
20.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → the share of sales left after running the business → so what: the core utility is still profitable even with cost pressure.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $3.0B (43% of capital)
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — risk rank looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NWE 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,770.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
NorthWestern posted $0.72 EPS, falling short of the $1.19 estimate (−39.5% miss) even as revenue rose 11% to $414 million.
Latest quarter revenue reached $414 million, up 11% vs. prior year, but EPS fell 45% vs. prior year to $0.72. Sales held up. Profit did not.
$414M
revenue
$0.72
eps
20.2%
op margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the −39.5% EPS miss versus estimates, because utilities are supposed to be boring in the good way.
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electric and gas utilities northwestern energy and black hills are pursuing a merger.
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to recap, the allstock deal is nearly a merger of equals, with much of the northwestern management team, including its chief executive, retaining their positions in the new company.
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technically, northwestern is the utility being acquired, receiving a 4% premium to where it had been trading over the several months the deal was being negotiated.assuming the merger receives all of the necessary approvals, northwestern stockholders would receive 0.98 of a share of black hills (nyse: bkh) for each nwe share.
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upon the merger’s completion, northwestern shareholders would own 44% of the combined company and black hills shareholders would own 56%.mergers are often difficult to close on in the utility sector, as they have to obtain approvals from several regulatory bodies.
-
this deal must get the green light from shareholders and federal regulators, including the federal trade commission and department of justice.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is $3.0B of long-term debt sitting on a business that earns 5.0% on capital.
med
debt is large for a business with modest returns
NWE carries $3.0B in long-term debt, equal to 43% of capital, while return on capital is 5.0%.
If financing costs rise or earnings stall, that combination narrows your margin for error.
med
the long-term base case sits below the stock
The 3–5 year base case on this page is $60 versus a current price of $64.65.
That gap is about 7% the wrong way. You are paying up for steadiness before new upside shows up in the numbers.
med
steady does not mean high-return
Return on equity is 8% and return on capital is 5.0%.
Those are acceptable utility numbers. They do not leave much room for execution misses, dilution, or a richer multiple.
med
customer concentration and thin segment detail reduce visibility
The current page references top-customer concentration at 29% of revenue, while product-level revenue splits are not disclosed here.
When disclosure is thin, you have fewer ways to test whether growth quality is improving or just getting larger.
none of these look existential for a regulated utility. together they explain why a 95/100 predictability score can still coexist with only average upside.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
watch whether fy2026 EPS beats $3.80
A utility priced for consistency needs actual earnings delivery. If EPS moves higher while the stock stays flat, the case improves.
risk
watch debt relative to returns
$3.0B in long-term debt is manageable only if returns stay intact. 5.0% return on capital is the number doing the real work here.
trend
watch whether institutional buying keeps going
Three straight quarters of net buying help, but 174 buyers versus 169 sellers is a lean, not a landslide.
calendar
watch the next guidance reset
This stock needs either a higher earnings path than $3.80 or a better long-term target than $60 to open up a cleaner upside case.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
95 / 100
management has a long record of steady results. in human-speak, this utility usually behaves the way utilities are supposed to.
risk rank
2
risk rank 2 means safer than roughly 80% of stocks. you are taking utility risk, not venture-capital risk.
price stability
95 / 100
the shares have been unusually stable. that lowers drama, but it also means sudden reratings are less common.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 174 buyers vs. 169 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 58.3M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$45
$75
$65
current price
$60
target midpoint · 7% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+25% · 9% ann'l return)
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