Start here if you're new
what it is
NVR builds and sells homes, then also helps finance the mortgages buyers use to close.
how it gets paid
Last year Nvr made $10.3B in revenue. Single-family detached homes was the main engine at $6.6B, or 64% of sales.
why growth slowed
Full-year revenue fell 1.9%. The latest quarter revenue was down ~13% vs. prior year— a different period— while net new orders rose ~3% with softer average prices.
what just happened
Q4 revenue landed at $2.636B, while EPS missed by 2.2%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
17.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
24.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 75/100 — average
What they do
NVR builds and sells homes, then also helps finance the mortgages buyers use to close.
You are not buying a debt machine here. Long-term debt → money borrowed over years → $909M, or 4% of capital, while return on capital sits at 24.5%. That gap says the business makes money with less borrowed drama than a normal homebuilder.
How they make money
$10.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.9% last year
Single-family detached homes
$6.6B
Townhouses
$1.5B
Condominium buildings
$0.9B
Mortgage banking
$1.3B
The products that matter
core homebuilding brand
Ryan Homes
primary volume engine
Ryan Homes is the front door for most of the business. When people talk about NVR's orders, pricing, and backlog, this is the machine doing most of the work.
volume
move-up and higher-price offering
NVHomes
brand mix matters
NVHomes gives NVR reach into higher-price communities. The page is thin on exact brand-level numbers, so the clean read is simple: product mix helps pricing, and pricing is under pressure.
mix
attached financing
NVR Mortgage
~$1.3B · ~13% of revenue (bridge)
Mortgage banking revenue on this page matches the revenue table— meaningful to closings, not a rounding error. When rates or underwriting tighten, this segment feels it quickly.
attach
Key numbers
$480.00
fy2027 eps est
$10B
fy2027 rev est
17.0x
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $909M (4% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.6% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 27% — $0.27 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NVR 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,210.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 revenue landed at $2.636B, while EPS missed by 2.2%.
Revenue fell 13% from a year earlier. Net new orders rose 3%, but average sales prices slipped.
$2.636B
quarter revenue
$121.56
eps
18.0%
operating margin (Q)
the number that mattered
The 13% revenue drop mattered more than the 3% order gain.
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fourth-quarter revenues of $2.636 billion dipped 13% versus the previous-year figure, but was largely in line with our call.meanwhile, earnings of $121.56 took a moderate step back vs. prior year, despite improving decently on a sequential basis.
-
moreover, net new orders increased 3% in the final stanza of 2025 compared to the previous-year period.
-
these orders carried modestly lower average sales prices.
-
backlog of homes sold with pending settlements stood at roughly $4 billion at the end of 2025, which is down 15% vs. prior year.
-
we look for modest top- and bottom-line growth this year.based on our model, revenues are expected to edge up to $10.325 billion, while earnings should improve decently, to $465 per share. moreover, our introductory 2027 financial projections suggest that similar growth rates are probably on tap for next year. the board of directors recently announced a substantial increase to the existing share-repurchase program. the authorization, which has no expiration date, allows the company to repurchase up to $750 million worth of shares in the open market. we think buybacks will be slow and steady over the next few years, with the pace likely to be largely based on stock price movements.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
NVR's risk profile is unusually specific. The balance sheet is cleaner than most builders, but you still own a company where backlog fell to roughly $4B, average selling prices slipped, and 95% of revenue comes from homebuilding.
med
Backlog keeps shrinking
Backlog ended 2025 at roughly $4B, down 15% from a year ago. That is future revenue already under contract, and it moved the wrong way.
If backlog keeps falling while settlements stay soft, the revenue base thins out before new orders can refill it.
med
Pricing slips faster than volume recovers
Net new orders rose 3%, but those orders came with modestly lower average selling prices. More contracts do not help much if each home brings in less revenue.
That is how you get a business that looks stable in unit terms while margins and EPS quietly fade.
med
Housing finance gets tighter
Mortgage banking is only 5% of revenue, but financing conditions affect the whole sales funnel. A buyer who cannot finance the home does not care how asset-light the builder is.
If affordability worsens or underwriting tightens, demand pressure shows up first in orders and cancellation risk, not just in the mortgage segment.
med
Buybacks do too much of the storytelling
NVR has no dividend and just approved another $750M of repurchases. That works well when the stock is reasonably priced and cash generation holds up.
If operating growth stays modest and the buyback pace slows, the per-share math looks less flattering than the headline business model suggests.
The core risk is simple: NVR is a better-run builder, not a different species. If orders, pricing, and backlog all weaken at once, the multiple probably does not bail you out.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
April 28, 2026. You want orders, average selling price commentary, and any sign backlog is finding a floor.
margin
12.6% net margin
That number tells you whether lower pricing is still manageable or whether the model is giving up profitability to keep volume moving.
orders
Order growth versus backlog decline
A 3% orders increase sounds good. A 15% backlog drop does not. Put those two numbers next to each other every quarter.
capital return
$750M repurchase pace
Buybacks are the main return tool here. If repurchases stay active while the stock stays near the midpoint target, they help. If they slow, your support line gets thinner.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
85 / 100
in human-speak, analysts think the business is cyclical but management is disciplined enough that the numbers rarely get chaotic.
price stability
90 / 100
The stock price has been steadier than you would expect for a builder. That tells you the market gives NVR some credit for its cleaner balance sheet.
balance sheet view
B++
Good, not magical. You are buying financial discipline, not immunity from the housing cycle.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 208 buyers vs. 235 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 2.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$6249
$9590
$7416
current price
$7490
target midpoint · +1% from current · 3-5yr high: $8615 (+15% · 4% ann'l return)
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