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what it is
Nova sells chip-factory tools that measure film thickness and tiny wafer features before defects turn expensive.
how it gets paid
Last year Nova made $881M in revenue. logic and foundry product sales was the main engine at $0.53B, or 60% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 31.0% last year. Revenue rose 45% vs. prior year. EPS came in at $4.17.
what just happened
Nova posted $433M in quarterly revenue while gross margin held at 57.6%.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
50.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
15.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Nova sells chip-factory tools that measure film thickness and tiny wafer features before defects turn expensive.
Nova sells measurement gear that chipmakers need before they can ship wafers. That is the boring part of a very expensive factory, and boring gets paid. In 2025, product sales were 80% of revenue and services were 20%, so your first sale keeps dragging in follow-on revenue.
How they make money
$881M
annual revenue · their business grew +31.0% last year
logic and foundry product sales
$0.53B
logic and foundry services
$0.13B
memory product sales
$0.18B
memory services
$0.04B
The products that matter
measures advanced chip processes
Metrology Tools
$881M revenue · 100% of the business
it is the entire company today: $881M in annual revenue, 32.4% net margin, and 59.6% non-gaap gross margin in the latest quarter. High quality, but not diversified.
100% of revenue
serves advanced logic customers
Logic and Foundry Exposure
75% of quarterly revenue
roughly three quarters of the latest quarter came from logic and foundry. That is where the spending is now, and it is also where your concentration risk lives.
75% mix
serves memory customers
Memory Exposure
25% of quarterly revenue
memory was about one quarter of revenue in the latest quarter. That gives Nova some end-market spread, but not enough to call this balanced.
25% mix
Key numbers
$433M
quarterly revenue
That is 45% above last year, so demand is still doing the heavy lifting.
38.0%
operating margin
For every $100 of sales, about $38 stays after operating costs.
50.2x
trailing p/e
You are paying $50 for each $1 of trailing earnings.
$380
target price
That is $53 below the current price, which is about 12% downside.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- net profit margin 37.3% — keeps 37 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NVMI 3 years ago → it's now worth $45,220.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Nova posted $433M in quarterly revenue while gross margin held at 57.6%.
Revenue rose 45% vs. prior year. EPS came in at $4.17, and the gross margin stayed near the top of the range.
$433M
revenue
$4.17
eps
57.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $433M quarter matters because it came in 45% above last year.
-
at the end of last year, revenue rose to $222.6 million, which marked 14% vs. prior year growth.this achievement highlighted the company’s robust portfolio, solid customer demand, and disciplined operational focus.
-
for the quarter, approximately 75% of revenue stemmed from logic and foundry and 25% from memory.
-
the company reported blended gross margins of 59.6% on a non-gaap basis, which was at the upper end of its target range of 57% to 60%.operating expenses increased to $62 million on a non-gaap basis, reflecting targeted investments in r&d and sales and marketing to advance the product roadmap and drive future growth.
-
operating margins were strong, reaching 32% on a non-gaap basis.
-
what’s more, earnings per share rose to $2.14.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is a slowdown in logic and foundry spending.
med
logic and foundry concentration
About 75% of the latest quarter came from logic and foundry. If that capex cycle cools, Nova feels it quickly.
This risk touches most of the current revenue mix, not a side business.
med
premium multiple meets slower growth
The stock trades at 50.2x trailing earnings while the latest quarter grew revenue 14% vs. prior year and the 3–5 year target midpoint is $380 versus a $433 stock price.
You are paying up before the future arrives. That leaves less room for a merely good quarter.
med
single-business exposure
Metrology tools are the whole company here. That focus helps margins, but it also means 100% of the $881M revenue base depends on one category staying healthy.
There is no second engine to offset a stumble in the core platform.
med
stock volatility
Price stability is 25 / 100 and the 52-week range runs from $154 to $507. The business is high quality. The stock still swings like a semiconductor stock.
Even if the thesis holds, the path can get violent.
between 75% logic and foundry exposure, 100% revenue tied to metrology tools, and a stock already above the $380 midpoint target, you do not have much room for a slowdown.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
growth after the comedown
full-year revenue grew +103.2%, but the latest quarter grew 14%. The next few prints tell you which number was the exception.
metric
gross margin near 60%
59.6% non-gaap gross margin is elite. If that starts slipping out of the 57%–60% target band, the quality case weakens.
risk
logic and foundry demand
roughly 75% of quarterly revenue comes from logic and foundry. That mix is great when spending is strong and uncomfortable when it is not.
valuation
price versus the street
the stock sits at $433 while the 3–5 year midpoint target is $380. Watch whether earnings pull the target higher or the stock comes back to it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the stock.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a defensive stock and not a total chaos machine either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is no longer doing anything heroic on its own.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
good enough that results usually rhyme, low enough that you should still expect semiconductor-style swings.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 118 buyers vs. 69 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 22.5M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$174
$585
$433
current price
$380
target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $545 (+25% · 6% ann'l return)
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