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what it is
Navigator runs 59 ships that move ethylene, LPG, and ammonia across oceans for industrial customers.
how it gets paid
Last year Navigator made $587M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.6% last year. Revenue was up 117% vs. prior year. EPS was up 123% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Navigator posted $281M of quarterly revenue and $0.69 EPS.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.3% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 60/100 — average
What they do
Navigator runs 59 ships that move ethylene, LPG, and ammonia across oceans for industrial customers.
You are buying 59 semi- or fully-refrigerated gas carriers, not a one-boat story. 42% of the next 12 months of days are covered by time charter contracts, which means fixed-rate rental → steadier cash flow → less drama. The 50% Morgan's Point terminal stake gives you another fee stream, and 28 ships can handle ethylene and ethane.
How they make money
$587M
annual revenue · their business grew +3.6% last year
total revenue
$587M
+3.6%
The products that matter
core operating fleet
Handysize Gas Carriers
56 vessels · largest fleet in its niche
This is the business. If vessel utilization and charter pricing hold, earnings hold. If they do not, the multiple will not save you.
core cash engine
future ammonia exposure
Amon Maritime JV
two carriers under construction
This adds optionality around ammonia transport. In human-speak: management is placing a small bet on a niche that is still early and not paying today's bills.
small future bet
commercial model
Time Charter Book
$~440M of revenue
Contracts matter almost as much as ships here. Charter coverage smooths cash flow when spot markets get moody. The catch: protection lasts only until contracts renew at lower rates.
stability layer
Key numbers
$587M
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole business. Compare it with $764M of debt, and you see the ships still owe more than they sell.
28.2%
operating margin
You keep 28 cents of every sales dollar after running the ships. Compare that with low-margin shippers, and the difference is real cash.
12.1x
trailing p/e
You pay 12.1 years of last year's earnings for the stock. That is not a fire sale, but it is not a melt-up price either.
$764M
long-term debt
Debt is 39% of capital, so a bad freight cycle hurts faster than it would at a cleaner balance sheet.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $764M (39% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NVGS right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Navigator posted $281M of quarterly revenue and $0.69 EPS.
Revenue was up 117% vs. prior year. EPS was up 123% vs. prior year. A separate market transcript for the latest Q4 2025 print said EPS was $0.32 against $0.46 expected, so the market still focused on the miss.
$281M
revenue
$0.69
eps
117%
revenue vs. last year
the number that mattered
The $281M quarter is the cleanest proof the fleet still earns real money, not just paper rates.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
NVGS is not a mystery. It is a shipping stock with a visible breakeven, a real debt load, and a quarter that just reminded you how fast sentiment can turn. If you own it, the cheap multiple only matters as long as the fleet keeps earning comfortably above its cost base.
med
Charter rates drift toward breakeven
The fleet's 2026 daily breakeven is $20,970. If market rates hover too close to that level, margin compression stops being a theory and starts showing up in reported earnings.
Kill criterion: if weak top-line trends persist beyond the next couple of quarters, the cheap-asset framing loses credibility and the multiple deserves to stay low.
med
Debt gets louder when cash generation gets quieter
$764M of long-term debt equals 39% of capital. That looks manageable when vessels are earning well. It looks heavier when utilization or contract pricing weakens.
Impact: weaker cash generation would narrow management's room to fund growth, repurchase stock, and support the dividend at the same time.
med
New ammonia ships arrive before the market fully does
The Amon Maritime JV is building two ammonia carriers. That is a real expansion step, but the demand story still has to mature enough to justify the capital.
Impact: if those vessels enter a market that develops slower than expected, the upside stays theoretical while the spending is very real.
med
Buybacks help the signal more than the math
Repurchasing $5.4M of stock at $17.68 versus an estimated $29 NAV is rational. It is also small. You should read it as a vote of confidence, not a rescue plan.
Impact: the buyback supports per-share value at the margin, but it will not offset a genuine downturn in fleet earnings.
Record annual net income and a soft quarter can both be true. The investment question is which one better describes the next 12 months.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
The spread above $20,970 daily breakeven
This is the operating tell. If charter rates keep a healthy gap above breakeven, the Q4 wobble stays manageable. If that spread compresses, the stock stops being a cheap-multiple story and starts being a balance-sheet story.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected on or around May 13, 2026. After weaker Q1 commentary, this report matters more than usual. You want proof that the soft patch is stabilizing, not spreading.
trend
Time charter mix versus voyage revenue
Roughly $~440M comes from time charters and $~147M from voyage and other revenue. If the steadier charter bucket shrinks as a share of revenue, quarterly volatility usually gets louder.
risk
Ammonia carrier delivery without matching demand
Two future vessels are a growth option, not a current earnings engine. Watch whether management pairs delivery timing with visible commercial demand. Otherwise you are funding tomorrow's story with today's balance sheet.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect a smooth line here. One bad quarter is normal. A string of them is the problem.
valuation
12.1x trailing p/e
You are paying $12.10 for every $1 of trailing earnings. That is not expensive. The catch is that shipping stocks often look cheapest right before investors stop trusting the "E".
street target
$21.90
Fourteen analysts see roughly 19% upside from $18.34. Price targets tell you where the spreadsheet lands, not whether the next quarter behaves.
risk profile
2 / 5 risk rank
Safer than 80% of stocks on this measure, but price stability is only 55 / 100. Translation: the business is sturdier than the tape feels, yet you should still expect movement.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NVGS is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$18
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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