start here if you're new
what it is
Nvidia sells the chips and software that make AI systems run, then charges prices most companies can only admire.
how it gets paid
Last year Nvidia made $215.9B in revenue. Data Center was the main engine at $190.0B, or 88% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 65.5% last year. The artificial intelligence arms race continues to fuel demand for the company’s data center products.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $147.8B, up 159% year over year, with EPS of $3.14 up 142%.
at a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
39.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
89.5% return on capital — a money-printing machine
xvary composite: 77/100 — average
what they do
Nvidia sells the chips and software that make AI systems run, then charges prices most companies can only admire.
Data center was 88% of 2024 revenue. Concentration sounds dangerous until you notice the economics: operating margin was 60.4% and return on capital was 89.5%. That means customers are not buying a chip, they are buying time-to-results (faster computing → quicker AI output → more money faster), and once your workloads are built around Nvidia's platform, switching gets expensive and slow.
how they make money
$215.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +65.5% last year
Data Center
$190.0B
+65.5%
Gaming
$19.4B
+65.5%
Professional Visualization
$4.3B
+65.5%
Automotive
$2.2B
+65.5%
the products that matter
AI and cloud computing accelerators
Data Center GPUs
$215.9B revenue
it generated $215.9 billion in revenue, representing 88% of the company's total sales.
core
key numbers
60.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Nvidia keeps about 60 cents of every sales dollar before interest and taxes.
89.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money used in the business → so what: this is elite efficiency, not just hot demand.
$215.9B
annual revenue
Revenue grew 65.5% year over year, which tells you Nvidia is not living on hype alone. The money is already here.
39.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with profits → so what: you are paying a premium, and premium stocks need premium execution.
financial health
A+
strength
- balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $7.5B (0% of capital)
- net profit margin 54.0% — keeps 54 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 92% — $0.92 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NVDA 3 years ago → it's now worth $108,180.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
what just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $147.8B, up 159% year over year, with EPS of $3.14 up 142%.
The business kept doing the same absurd thing at larger scale. Annual revenue reached $215.9B, up 65.5%, while gross margin stayed at 69.3%.
$147.8B
revenue
$3.14
eps
69.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
69.3% gross margin matters most because it shows Nvidia is not buying growth with discounts. It is keeping almost 70 cents of each revenue dollar after production costs.
-
nvidia continues to deliver stellar results.the artificial intelligence (ai) arms race continues to fuel demand for the company’s data center products, particularly those featuring its latest generation of gpu (graphics processing units) architecture, known as blackwell.
-
octoberquarter revenues rose 62% year over year (and 22% sequentially), to $57.0 billion, comfortably surpassing management’s earlier guidance of $54.0 billion.meanwhile, the gross margin, which was squeezed a bit during the early stages of the blackwell rollout, showed nice sequential improvement.
-
these factors helped to lift earnings per share to $1.30, up 60% from the 2024 comparable period and $0.05 above our estimate.
-
the company anticipates that demand will continue to build, as well.
-
january-quarter revenues are pegged to reach roughly $65.0 billion, which would represent from a year ago and sequential increases of 65% and 14%, respectively. (our estimate had been just north of $61 billion.) this growth, along with the prospect of a continued rebound in the gross margin, is apt to lift profits to about $1.50, nicely above our earlier call of $1.39.too, nvidia ceo jensen huang sounded on fiscal 2026 (begins january 26th) and beyond, declaring that ‘‘ai is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.’’ nonetheless, these shares have had a turbulent few months.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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what could go wrong
the #1 risk is in-house chip designs from major cloud customers.
high
competitive disruption
rivals like amd and in-house chip designs from major cloud providers could erode nvidia's dominant market share in ai accelerators.
losing a major product cycle could cut revenue 15-25%
med
regulatory and antitrust scrutiny
regulators in the us, eu, and china are scrutinizing nvidia's market power in ai chips, which could lead to restrictions or fines.
fines or forced changes could cost 5-15% of annual revenue
low
talent retention and cost inflation
the intense competition for ai engineering talent is driving up r&d and compensation costs, pressuring operating margins.
R&D cost inflation could compress margins by 2-5%
if cloud giants successfully displace its GPUs, it exposes the source of 88% of nvidia's revenue.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
watch for the next quarterly earnings report, expected around may 2026, for updates on data center demand and gross margins.
product
q4 2026 earnings preview
the next earnings report in february 2026 will test if demand for its blackwell gpu architecture is sustaining the ai supercycle.
risk
antitrust clearance for intel deal
monitor the outcome of us antitrust review for nvidia's deal with intel, as regulatory hurdles could impact strategic partnerships.
analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings can be harder to predict — expect surprises.
source: institutional data
institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 2,599 buyers vs. 2,329 sellers in 3q2025. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
price targets
3-5 year target range
$152
$325
$186
current price
$239
target midpoint · +29% from current · 3-5yr high: $345 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
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the full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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NVDA
xvary deep dive
hold
composite 77/100
$239
+29% upside from current price
39.9x
forward p/e
$0B
free cash flow
2.6%
owner earnings yield
what the street is missing
Wall Street is focused on whether growth slows from absurd to merely huge. The part getting missed is how much profit survives at scale: 60.4% operating margin and 89.5% return on capital are not normal semiconductor numbers.
intrinsic value
The stock looks expensive versus ordinary companies and reasonable versus this business. If Nvidia reaches the $7.10 FY2026 EPS estimate and keeps a premium multiple, the $239 18-month target is not heroic.
This thesis dies if AI infrastructure demand stops compounding or if margins crack. Specifically, I would change my view if data center growth stalls enough to push the stock toward the low end of the $152-$325 range for fundamental, not marketwide, reasons.
what's in the full report
88% of revenue from one engine
60.4% margin is the real story
89.5% capital returns are absurd
39.9x earnings needs constant proof
53% of sales are international
0% of capital is long-term debt
R&D is only 7% of sales
Why $239 is plausible, not cheap
read the full report
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