XVARY Composite Score
39
/ 100
Weak
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Novavax makes vaccines and vaccine ingredients, then licenses its adjuvant tech to bigger drug companies.
How it gets paid
Last year Novavax made $1.1B in revenue.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 64.7% last year. The ~$275M revenue print mattered because it showed the business can still throw off serious sales when demand and approvals line up — reconcile any.
What just happened
Novavax reported ~$275M in quarterly revenue and $2.53 in EPS.
At a Glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
5.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
-$1.23 fy2024 eps est
$682M fy2024 rev est
XVARY composite: 39/100 — weak
What They Do
Novavax makes vaccines and vaccine ingredients, then licenses its adjuvant tech to bigger drug companies.
You are buying a protein-based vaccine platform, not an mRNA copycat. That matters because Novavax paired $1.1B in annual revenue with 952 employees. In January 2026, Pfizer took a non-exclusive license for Matrix-M, which means Pfizer can use it too, and Novavax can still collect $30M upfront plus up to $500M in milestones.
How They Make Money
$1.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +64.7% last year
total revenue
$1.1B
+64.7%
The Products That Matter
Marketed COVID vaccine
nuvaxovid
$1.1B revenue base in 2025
this is the commercial engine today. it sat inside a $1.1B revenue year, but 2026 guidance of $230M–$270M says the current demand curve is falling fast.
current cash source
Combined vaccine pipeline
COVID-flu candidate
no product revenue yet
there is no commercial number attached to it yet. that's exactly why it matters. if your existing business is resetting from $1.1B to $230M–$270M, the pipeline has to become more than a science project.
the long-term bet
Adjuvant and licensing economics
partnership revenue
deal-driven, not steady
the Pfizer adjuvant license matters because novavax needs revenue streams that are not tied to one shrinking vaccine market. thin disclosure here is part of the risk.
optionality, not certainty
Key Numbers
$1.1B
annual revenue
That is the whole business size. For a 952-person company, $1.1B is a lot of vaccine sales to keep moving.
64.7%
revenue growth
This is the contrast that matters. Revenue rose 64.7% while the company still looked like a tiny biotech on the map.
40.3%
operating margin
This says the base business can throw off real profit before everything else gets its turn.
$246M
long-term debt
Debt is not huge next to $1.1B revenue, but it still matters when your business depends on approvals and one main product.
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $246M (13% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Novavax reported ~$275M in quarterly revenue and $2.53 in EPS.
vs. prior year revenue and EPS percentages can look extreme after a weak prior quarter — confirm the comparable window in the filing rather than treating headline multiples as the whole story. The print still mattered: a vaccine name moving from near-zero revenue quarters to a real sales line is the narrative.
$275M
revenue
$2.53
eps
93.7%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The ~$275M revenue print mattered because it showed the business can still throw off serious sales when demand and approvals line up — reconcile any higher headline revenue figure to the same filing quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is the COVID revenue cliff. novavax is guiding 2026 adjusted revenue to $230M–$270M after reporting $1.1B in 2025.
Med
Revenue falls faster than the reset case
management already expects about an 80% decline from $1.1B to $230M–$270M. if that floor proves too generous, the valuation debate gets much harsher.
even the guided range would remove more than $800M of annual revenue from the business model investors just saw.
Med
Single-product concentration
there is one marketed product here. that leaves novavax tied to a shrinking COVID vaccine market while competing against Pfizer and Moderna.
when one product carries the story, there is no segment mix to absorb a miss.
Med
Pipeline does not become revenue soon enough
the combined COVID-flu candidate is the obvious long-term hope, but this page gives you no commercial number for it today. that's not a bug. that's the reality.
if the pipeline stays pre-revenue while the core vaccine shrinks, the stock remains an option on future science instead of a growing business.
Med
Partnership economics disappoint
the Pfizer adjuvant license helps the narrative, but deal announcements and durable cash generation are not the same thing.
with 2026 revenue guided so low, weak licensing follow-through would pressure the entire pivot thesis.
a forced reset from $1.1B to $230M–$270M leaves novavax exposed on both volume and timing: the old market is shrinking now, while the new one is still mostly promise.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Whether revenue can even hold the reset range
$230M–$270M is already a brutal guide. if quarterly results point below $230M, the turnaround case gets weaker fast.
Trend
Gross margin versus revenue volume
93.7% gross margin says dose economics look strong. what you need next is proof that those economics sit on enough demand to matter.
Calendar
Pipeline and partnership milestones
the combined COVID-flu program and the Pfizer adjuvant license now carry more weight because the legacy COVID revenue base is shrinking.
Risk
Another swing quarter
20 / 100 earnings predictability and 5 / 100 price stability tell you this stock can turn on one print. position size is not the analysis, but volatility is part of the business model here.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust the next few quarters to look anything like the last one.
balance sheet
B
good enough to keep operating. not good enough to make the revenue cliff disappear.
price stability
5 / 100
this stock does not trade like a steady healthcare compounder. it trades like a live thesis.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for NVAX is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$9
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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