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what it is
Nucor melts scrap into steel, then sells the beams, bars, joists, and deck that hold up warehouses, bridges, and factories.
how it gets paid
Last year Nucor made $32.5B in revenue. sheet and plate was the main engine at $11.7B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.7% last year. The 17.62% EPS miss mattered most because it showed how quickly steel earnings can sag even when the stock has already run 33% in a.
what just happened
Nucor printed $1.73 EPS, missing the $2.10 consensus by 17.62%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
23.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
11.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Nucor melts scrap into steel, then sells the beams, bars, joists, and deck that hold up warehouses, bridges, and factories.
Nucor wins by being everywhere you need steel. The company operates 26 U.S. steel mills, based on the company profile cited in web results, so your order can be made closer to the jobsite. It also carries $6.9B of long-term debt, just 14% of capital, which means leverage (borrowed money) → less balance-sheet strain → so what: a steel slump is less likely to force ugly decisions.
How they make money
$32.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.7% last year
sheet and plate
$11.7B
structural and bar steel
$8.8B
joists, deck, and fabricated systems
$7.1B
raw materials and downstream products
$4.9B
The products that matter
manufactures and sells steel
Steel Products
$32.5B revenue
it is the whole business: $32.5B of annual revenue that gets better fast when steel prices rise and worse fast when they do not.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
23.8x
trailing p/e
Multiple → price paid for current earnings → so what: you are not buying this like a cheap steel stock.
19.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Nucor still converts sales into real money better than many industrial peers.
$6.9B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money → so what: at 14% of capital, the balance sheet looks sturdy for a cyclical company.
$40B
2029 revenue est.
This is the top-line goal embedded in the long-range outlook, versus $32.5B trailing revenue today.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $6.9B (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.6% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NUE 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,420.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Nucor printed $1.73 EPS, missing the $2.10 consensus by 17.62%.
Revenue was $7.69B in the quarter, below the $7.87B figure cited in the earnings coverage from web results. The bigger issue was margin pressure, with gross margin at just 2.5%.
$7.69B
revenue
$1.73
eps
2.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 17.62% EPS miss mattered most because it showed how quickly steel earnings can sag even when the stock has already run 33% in a year.
-
nucor shares performed well in the past year.
-
over the last 12 months, the steel equity is up 33% in value.to recap: the white house’s tariffs on imports helped make the first quarter of 2025 the trough in nucor’s profit cycle.
-
benchmark domestic hot-rolled coil (hrc) steel index futures initially reacted favorably to the 25% tariffs imposed in march, but then wavered.
-
economic advisers to the trump administration determined that the measures weren’t enough, leading the administration to raise tariffs on foreign produced steel to 50% in june.
-
despite exemptions for certain nations, the protections have worked.hrc futures have moved up from $690 per ton 13 months ago to the $910 area at the time of our last report in november and more than $975 now. steel producers’ average price realizations tend to correlate with the futures market’s movements on a bit of a lag. for nucor, there is a seasonal shift in its sales mix and maintenance downtime is often taken in the fourth quarter, typically making that period the softest. higher sequential pricing and volumes should lift first-quarter 2026 earnings relative to last year’s fourth-quarter tally of $1.73.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is hot-rolled coil prices giving back the tariff boost.
high
steel price reversal
Nucor's revenue base is $32.5B because steel prices and demand improved. if that price tape rolls over, earnings usually follow fast.
this risk touches the entire business, not one side segment.
med
tariff support fading
the recent setup leaned on 25% tariffs in march and 50% tariffs in june. if policy support weakens, domestic pricing loses one of its clearest props.
the stock is partly trading on stronger domestic spreads than the industry had 13 months ago.
med
input-cost squeeze
a 7.9% net margin is good for steel, but it is not bulletproof. when raw material costs rise faster than selling prices, the spread shrinks.
in a low-margin industry, a smaller spread shows up in EPS fast.
a weaker steel tape would pressure the same $32.5B revenue base that just grew 31.0%, and a 7.9% margin does not leave endless room for mistakes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
watch whether first-quarter 2026 improves from Q4's $1.73 EPS. that is the cleanest read on whether higher pricing is reaching the income statement.
trend
hot-rolled coil pricing
the move from $690 to more than $975 per ton changed the tone. if that reverses, the thesis changes with it.
metric
revenue follow-through
last year's revenue jumped 31.0% to $32.5B. the catch is whether that was a peak bounce or the start of a better run rate.
risk
trade-policy durability
25% tariffs became 50% in june. if the policy backdrop shifts again, steel pricing can move before company guidance does.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think NUE has better odds than most stocks over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not the weakest name in the steel pile either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but not flashing anything extreme.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings are hard to model because steel prices move first and reported profits catch up after.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 551 buyers vs. 486 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$98
$229
$183
current price
$164
target midpoint · 10% from current · 3-5yr high: $310 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
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