Start here if you're new
what it is
Natera sells blood tests that use DNA in your blood to spot cancer and genetic problems.
how it gets paid
Last year Natera made $2.3B in revenue. Insurance carriers was the main engine at $2.14B, or 93% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 35.9% last year on the $2.3B base. The ~39% figure is latest-quarter vs. prior year revenue growth (see earnings block) — not a second full-year growth rate.
what just happened
Natera's latest quarter put $660M of revenue on the board, up 39% vs. prior year.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
24.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
-$0.40 fy2027 eps est
What they do
Natera sells blood tests that use DNA in your blood to spot cancer and genetic problems.
Your test sits behind 500+ issued or pending patents, which are legal shields. That makes copycats slower and pricier. Add 250+ peer-reviewed publications, and insurers get a paper trail; 93% of 2024 revenue came from insurance carriers, versus 1% from patients.
How they make money
$2.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +35.9% last year
Insurance carriers
$2.14B
Laboratory partners
$0.14B
Patients
$0.02B
The products that matter
molecular residual disease testing
Signatera
923,600 total tests in Q4
this is the franchise investors keep circling back to, even though this page does not break out its revenue on its own. That omission matters. When one product seems to carry most of the excitement, you want cleaner proof of how much of the economics it carries too.
stock mover
prenatal screening tests
Prenatal screening
part of a $2.3B platform
prenatal helps anchor the revenue base, but the segment dollars are not broken out here. So you know the company is scaling. You do not get the clean segment split that would tell you how balanced that scaling really is.
base business
transplant monitoring tests
Organ monitoring
margin at company level — see Q4 vs annual gross margin
transplant monitoring adds breadth to the platform. But again, you get company-level profitability, not test-line profitability. Here's the thing: the margin is getting better, while the exact source of that improvement stays a little blurry.
portfolio depth
Key numbers
$2.3B
annual revenue
That is the whole company, and it grew 35.9% vs. prior year.
44.1%
gross margin (annual / blended)
Company-level gross margin here is 44.1%. Latest quarter can print higher (e.g. ~67% in Q4) — do not merge the two without labeling the period.
19.5%
expected sales growth (forward)
This is a forward growth view — last year’s revenue grew 35.9% on the $2.3B base.
$246
18-month target
That is 19% above $206.23, so Wall Street is still paying for growth.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- net profit margin 9.0% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 24% — $0.24 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NTRA 3 years ago → it's now worth $48,300.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Natera's latest quarter put $660M of revenue on the board, up 39% vs. prior year.
About 923,600 tests were processed, up 17%. Consensus had EPS at -$0.47, and actual EPS was $0.36. Gross margin was 66.9% in Q4 2025, versus 62.9% a year earlier.
$660M
revenue (Q)
$0.36
eps (Q)
66.9%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
Revenue mattered because it rose 39% and showed the volume engine is still working.
-
natera posted solid preliminary fourth-quarter results.
-
total revenues soared 39% vs. prior year, to $660 million, well above our $594 million estimate.
-
roughly 923,600 tests were processed in the final quarter, a 17% rise above the year-ago level.more specifically, 233,000 oncology tests were administered, and about 225,000 clinical molecular residual disease (mrd) tests occurred.
-
profitability is unlikely until late 2027.
-
management is focused on expanding its reach in women’s health, organ health, and oncology markets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the biggest risk is not that Natera stops growing. it is that reimbursement, margin, or product concentration stops looking as clean as the valuation assumes.
med
insurance carrier concentration
$2.14B of $2.3B revenue comes from insurance carriers on this bridge — about 93% — tied to reimbursement decisions and collection timing.
If coverage terms tighten or payments slow, the revenue line feels it fast. This company sells tests, but cash realization still runs through the payer gate.
med
insider selling into strength
The executive chairman sold $38.3M in stock between March 12–16, 2026. Earlier in the year, insiders sold a total of $47M.
One sale is not a thesis. Repeated selling while the stock trades at a premium still deserves your attention, especially when expectations already run high.
med
margin improvement proves temporary
Gross margin reached 66.9% in Q4, up 4 percentage points from a year ago. The market will treat that as a new baseline unless management gives it back.
If margin slips while revenue growth settles toward the 2026 guide pace, the premium multiple has less to defend it.
med
the stock is priced for clean execution
At $206.23, the stock already sits fairly close to the $262.39 average target. There is room above. There is not much forgiveness below.
This does not need a disaster to disappoint you. It just needs one quarter where volume, margin, or collections look less tidy than expected.
With about 91% of revenue tied to insurance carriers and insiders already selling tens of millions of dollars of stock, NTRA can reprice on reimbursement, profitability, or sentiment faster than the headline growth rate suggests.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross margin after the jump
66.9% was the number that changed the tone of the quarter. If it holds, the scaling story gets real support. If it fades, the valuation looks a lot heavier.
calendar
next earnings update
Use the next report to check whether management still looks on track for the $2.66B midpoint. Raising guidance is good. Hitting it matters more.
risk
insider selling cadence
$38.3M sold in four days is not background noise. If more filings show up while the stock stays expensive, investors will read that as information.
trend
volume versus mix disclosure
923,600 tests tells you demand is rising. It does not tell you which test line is driving the economics. You want both volume growth and cleaner disclosure on what is making the money.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
measured upside
$262.39 average target versus $206.23 current price. in human-speak, analysts still see room, but not enough room to pardon a weak quarter.
risk profile
volatile
15 / 100 price stability means this stock behaves more like a catalyst trade than a sleepy compounder.
chart momentum
story-led
This name trades on test growth, improving profitability, and reimbursement confidence more than smooth technical patterns.
earnings predictability
50/100
Halfway predictable means the business is improving, but still changing fast enough to surprise you.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 365 buyers vs. 289 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$150
$341
$206
current price
$246
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $330 (+60% · 12% ann'l return)
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