Start here if you're new
what it is
Nutrien sells fertilizer and farm supplies through 1,900 retail locations, so it profits from both making crop inputs and selling them.
how it gets paid
Last year Nutrien made $26.9B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.5% last year. The 4.6% EPS miss matters most because this stock already depends on an earnings rebound.
what just happened
Nutrien posted $0.83 EPS, missing estimates by 4.6%, even as the business kept showing vs. prior year improvement.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
Nutrien sells fertilizer and farm supplies through 1,900 retail locations, so it profits from both making crop inputs and selling them.
Nutrien controls both the mines and the storefronts. It sells potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, then moves that product through more than 1,900 retail locations across North America, South America, and Australia. That vertical integration (owning supply and distribution → controlling both production and sales → more pricing power) matters because you are not betting on one product line alone.
How they make money
$26.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.5% last year
total revenue
$26.9B
+3.5%
The products that matter
core crop nutrient
potash
segment revenue not broken out on this page
Potash is the product most investors mentally associate with Nutrien. In human-speak: if potash pricing gets weak, the whole equity story gets harder.
price-sensitive
yield and protein input
nitrogen
margin support matters more than volume headlines
Nitrogen keeps farmers spending because crop yields do not negotiate. That helps demand, but your returns still depend on whether Nutrien sells it at good prices.
demand stays real
crop nutrient mix
phosphate
useful piece of the basket, thin detail here
Phosphate rounds out the offering. This snapshot does not have the segment math, so the honest read is simple: you are buying the full fertilizer basket, not one pristine growth engine.
basket exposure
Key numbers
13.4x
trailing p/e
You are paying 13.4 times trailing earnings for a business expected to grow earnings 23.0%, which is cheap if the cycle cooperates.
$36B
2028 revenue
Management's 2028 revenue outlook implies a much larger company than today's $26.9B run rate.
22.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business but before interest and taxes. At 22.5%, Nutrien keeps more of each dollar than most input distributors — before interest and tax take the rest down to a much lower net margin.
3.6%
dividend yield
You are being paid 3.6% a year to wait, which matters in a cyclical business where timing is never clean.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $9.9B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.3% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 11% — $0.11 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NTR 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,260.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Nutrien posted $0.83 EPS, missing estimates by 4.6%, even as the business kept showing vs. prior year improvement.
The latest quarter missed consensus at $0.83 versus $0.87 expected. The bigger picture is less ugly: third-quarter EPS reached $0.97 and the top line rose about 12% vs. prior year, according to company commentary in the base data.
$26.9B
annual revenue
$0.83
eps (Q)
31.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 4.6% EPS miss matters most because this stock already depends on an earnings rebound, and small misses look bigger in cyclical businesses.
-
shares of nutrien have traded higher in price in recent times.
-
the company reported strong operating results in the third quarter.
-
the top line increased roughly 12%, vs. prior year.
-
earnings per share of $0.97 marked a considerable improvement from the prior-year level.the company benefited from higher fertilizer net selling prices, increased upstream fertilizer volumes, and greater earnings from the retail business.
-
favorable comparisons ought to continue in the december period.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Nutrien is not a mystery. The risk is that you buy a low multiple and then remember why it was low. This business lives on crop input pricing, margin discipline, and your willingness to sit through uneven earnings.
med
Low predictability stops the cheap multiple from feeling cheap
Earnings predictability is 35/100. That is the data's way of saying estimates break more often here than in steadier businesses.
If earnings miss for a couple of quarters, investors stop calling 13.4x earnings a bargain and start calling it fair.
med
Operating strength does not fully survive the trip to net income
Operating margin is 22.5%, but net profit margin is only 8.3%. A lot gets eaten before profits reach you.
If fertilizer prices soften or costs move the wrong way, that 8.3% net margin gets thin in a hurry.
med
The debt load is manageable, not invisible
Long-term debt stands at $9.9B, or 25% of capital. That is workable, but it matters more in a cyclical business than in a subscription one.
If the cycle gets worse while cash generation falls, the balance sheet moves from background detail to headline risk.
med
The yield can make patience look like progress
A 3.6% yield sounds attractive. The stock still turned $10,000 into $9,260 over three years.
If you own NTR mainly for income, remember the obvious thing that gets forgotten: a decent payout does not fix poor capital appreciation.
If fertilizer prices hold, the setup works. If they roll over again, remember the header’s $44–$65 52-week band can print below the $50–$86 analyst target endpoints on the bar below.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number that mattered
35 / 100 earnings predictability
Here’s the thing: the whole low-multiple argument falls apart if you treat this like a steady compounder. You should treat estimates as a range, not a promise.
trend
three straight quarters of net institutional buying
290 buyers versus 268 sellers in 3Q2025 is positive, but only modestly. If that spread widens, the market is getting more comfortable with the cycle.
risk
net margin versus operating margin
22.5% operating margin sounds great. 8.3% net margin is the reality that reaches shareholders. Watch the gap, because that is where a lot of the bull case gets tested.
kill criteria
what would change our mind
The constructive case needs two things: revenue tracking above $26.9B and margins holding up. If revenue slips while net margin sinks below 8.3%, this stops looking like a patient value setup and starts looking like a value trap.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not get a smooth line here. Expect revisions, resets, and a few quarters that land away from consensus.
balance sheet grade
B++
The balance sheet is good enough to support the story. It is not the story.
overall composite
58 / 100
This is a middling setup: decent value, decent income, and enough cyclicality to keep conviction from getting comfortable.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 290 buyers vs. 268 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$50
$86
$62
current price
$68
target midpoint · +10% from current · 3-5yr high: $115 (+85% · 19% ann'l return)
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