Start here if you're new
what it is
NOV sells the heavy equipment and field services oil and gas companies need to drill, produce, and keep wells running.
how it gets paid
Last year Nov made $8.7B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.4% last year. At the start of last year, crude was $74 a barrel, but it has been beaten down by political and global uncertainties, while saudi arabia.
what just happened
NOV's last report delivered -$0.02 EPS versus a $0.30 estimate, a clean miss.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.1x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
NOV sells the heavy equipment and field services oil and gas companies need to drill, produce, and keep wells running.
This business wins on reach and replacement pain. NOV had 34,010 employees in 2024 and sells into offshore and land markets, so your customer can buy equipment, parts, and support from one vendor. That scale matters when downtime costs real money, even if the return on capital is only 6.0%.
How they make money
$8.7B
annual revenue · revenue declined -1.4% last year
total revenue
$8.7B
1.4%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells drilling equipment
Drilling Equipment
$8.7B revenue · +35.2%
It's the entire $8.7B revenue base shown here, which means your exposure is straightforward: more drilling activity in, more equipment demand out.
core
cycle-sensitive operating leverage
Margin Recovery
4.8% net margin
A 4.8% net margin on $8.7B revenue leaves little room for slippage, but it also means even modest margin improvement can matter a lot for EPS.
the real swing factor
shareholder return program
Dividend
1.7% yield
The 1.7% yield will not carry the stock on its own, but the recent 20% dividend increase says management wants to signal confidence in the cycle.
signal, not thesis
Key numbers
18.1x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → price divided by the last 12 months of earnings → so what: you are paying 18.1 years of backward-looking profit for a cyclical supplier.
6.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in the business → so what: NOV is earning only 6 cents for every dollar invested.
13.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: the core operation works, but not by industrial superstar standards.
1.7%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout divided by the stock price → so what: you are not getting paid much to wait through a rough cycle.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $1.7B (21% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.7% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 7% — $0.07 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NOV 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,000.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
NOV's last report delivered -$0.02 EPS versus a $0.30 estimate, a clean miss.
That miss fits the broader trend. Full-year EPS dropped to $0.95 in 2025 from $1.37 in 2024 as macro pressure, tariffs, and weaker energy conditions weighed on results.
$2.2B
revenue
$0.02
eps
20.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the $0.32 EPS miss versus consensus, because it reinforced that 2025 is a transition year, not a clean recovery.
-
nov inc. has been weathering macroeconomic problems well.
-
at the start of last year, crude was $74 a barrel, but it has been beaten down by political and global uncertainties, while saudi arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced that it would increase its exports, despite the lower oil prices.
-
economic uncertainties and the impact of tariffs have also been drags.the combination of events saw crude fall to $55 a barrel, and nov shares slip to under $11 — both at post-covid lows. the current oil price is marginally above the four-year low; however, nov's cost-control efforts have enabled it to sequentially increase its third-quarter free cash flow to $245 million. this positioned nov to repurchase 6.2 million shares for $80 million and pay regular dividends of $28 million, bringing total capital returned to shareholders in the first three quarters to $393 million, which included a supplemental dividend of $78 million, or $0.21 a share, in the second quarter.
-
earnings should remain a challenge.
-
the fourth quarter of 2025 not only included lower oil and gas prices, but a less-than-usual seasonal increase in the energy equipment segment due to timing of equipment deliveries.meanwhile, the impact of tariffs likely rose to $25 million, or about $0.04 a share, for the quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is drilling activity rolling over with oil and gas spending.
high
drilling cycle exposure
This snapshot shows one $8.7B revenue stream tied to drilling equipment demand. If producers cut capex, NOV feels it quickly.
100% of the revenue shown here is exposed to the cycle.
high
thin margins
NOV generated a 4.8% net profit margin last year. That's profitable, but it leaves little room for pricing pressure, project misses, or cost inflation.
At 4.8%, small operating changes can hit EPS harder than the revenue line suggests.
med
estimate risk
Earnings predictability is 20/100, and the latest quarter printed just $0.11 in EPS. That means the market can be surprised in either direction, often violently.
If the $1.15 full-year EPS estimate slips, the forward valuation case weakens.
med
balance sheet drag in a downturn
The balance sheet is decent at B++, but $1.7B in long-term debt is still real money if the cycle softens and cash generation gets squeezed.
Debt equal to 21% of capital is manageable now. It matters more if demand weakens.
A weaker drilling cycle would hit the full $8.7B revenue base, and a 4.8% net margin means NOV does not have much cushion if demand or pricing turns against it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
The first question is simple: does EPS move materially above $0.11 while revenue stays near the $2.2B level.
metric
net margin above 4.8%
Revenue grew 35.2% last year. The next step is proving that growth can come with better profitability, not just more volume.
risk
oil and gas capex sentiment
NOV does not need booming commodity prices. It does need producers to keep spending on drilling and field equipment.
trend
estimate stability
With a 20/100 predictability score and $1.15 full-year EPS estimate, revisions matter. Watch the estimate trend as much as the headline results.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2. In human-speak, analysts think NOV has a better-than-average shot at outperforming over the next year.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3. You're not in a bunker stock, but this is not a disaster setup either.
chart momentum
average
Technical score 3. The chart is not sending some grand secret message. It's broadly moving with the market.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means the quarterly numbers are hard to model. If you own this stock, expect surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 208 buyers vs. 204 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$8
$22
$17
current price
$15
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+45% · 12% ann'l return)
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