Start here if you're new
what it is
NextNav builds land-based location and timing tools that are supposed to keep working when GPS does not.
how it gets paid
Last year Nextnav made $6M in revenue. Pinnacle altitude services was the main engine at $3.0M, or 50% of sales.
what just happened
Revenue reached $4M, but the company still posted a steep $0.93 per-share loss.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
-$0.84 fy2024 eps est
$6M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
1.2 beta
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
NextNav builds land-based location and timing tools that are supposed to keep working when GPS does not.
NextNav owns licensed 900 MHz spectrum and sells location data that can tell what floor you are on, not just your street corner. That matters when GPS fails indoors, underground, or between tall buildings. The weird part is the company is trying to turn that edge into a national network with just 96 employees.
How they make money
$6M
annual revenue
Pinnacle altitude services
$3.0M
TerraPoiNT network services
$1.5M
NextGen 5G PNT pilots
$0.9M
Partnership and deployment services
$0.6M
The products that matter
terrestrial PNT network
TerraPoiNT
core platform · uses 900 MHz spectrum
TerraPoiNT is the main bet. It uses licensed 900 MHz spectrum to provide location data where GPS struggles, especially indoors. If you own NN, this is the asset you are really underwriting.
backup to GPS
vertical location service
Pinnacle
single-digit meter accuracy target
Pinnacle is the practical use case. It aims to improve vertical location accuracy for emergency services like E911. If that turns into contracts, the story gets commercial. If it stays a technical promise, you are left with a very expensive concept stock.
E911 angle
Key numbers
$6M
annual revenue
That is the estimated 2024 revenue. Against a roughly $2.0B market cap, you are paying about 333 times sales for a business still proving demand.
$243M
long-term debt
Debt equals about 41 times annual revenue and 10% of capital. For a company losing money, that leaves less room for mistakes.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: NextNav spent far more than it brought in during 2024.
96
employees
A 96-person team is trying to build a national backup to GPS. That is either capital-light genius or a scale problem hiding in plain sight.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $243M (10% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
loss widened
Revenue reached $4M, but the company still posted a steep $0.93 per-share loss.
Sales rose 309% vs. prior year off a tiny base, which sounds huge because the base was tiny. The harder fact is that estimated full-year 2024 revenue was only $6M while full-year EPS was -$0.84.
$4M
revenue
$0.93
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The number is $4M in quarterly revenue, because one contract can move the whole income statement when your annual sales base is only about $6M.
source: SEC filing / company report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the core risk is simple: NN is valued for an FCC-assisted future that the income statement does not show yet. If the regulatory path slips or the revenue ramp stays tiny, those two facts collide fast.
med
FCC rulemaking stalls, slips, or lands weaker than hoped
The bull case depends on repurposing the Lower 900 MHz band for positioning, navigation, and timing services. No approval, a long delay, or a diluted outcome would hit the thesis where it lives.
This is the entire valuation risk in one sentence: a roughly $2B stock is sitting on $5.54M of trailing revenue because investors think the spectrum outcome changes everything.
med
Commercial adoption stays smaller than the story
Trailing revenue is $5.54M and the latest quarter was $887K. Even if the technology works, customers still have to pay enough, soon enough, to justify the network build and operating spend.
A few more quarters around this revenue level would make the stock look less like early execution and more like delayed validation.
med
Cash burn turns time into the main enemy
The last reported quarter showed an $18.2M net loss, and the company carries $243M in long-term debt after a $190M note offering in Q1 2025. That buys runway. It does not buy certainty.
If commercialization drags, more financing moves back to center stage. Existing holders know what that usually means for dilution and sentiment.
med
The multiple compresses before the business scales
At roughly $2B of market value against $5.54M of trailing revenue, the stock already trades on a future state. If investors start demanding proof instead of possibility, the rerating does not need bad news to happen.
That is why the 5 / 100 price stability score matters. Volatility is not background noise here. It is part of the instrument.
If the FCC path slips and quarterly revenue stays under $1M, you do not have a temporary speed bump. You have a valuation built for a much bigger business than the company has shown.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q4 and FY 2025 earnings on mar 17
This is the next hard-data checkpoint. You want updated revenue, loss trends, and any concrete language around the FCC path.
regulatory
any FCC movement on the Lower 900 MHz proposal
No fixed date is listed here. Any notice, comment period, or timetable update matters more than most quarterly metrics because regulation is still steering the story.
revenue
whether quarterly sales can move beyond sub-$1M territory
Q3 revenue was $887K. Until that number starts scaling, the market is still paying for possibility rather than proof.
insider trend
whether the mar 5 insider sale stays isolated
Mariam Sorond sold 69,853 shares. One sale is data. A pattern would be a signal.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — analysts see underperformance risk in the near term.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$16
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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