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what it is
It insures mortgages, so lenders get paid when borrowers miss payments.
how it gets paid
Last year NMI Holdings made $706M in revenue. Primary mortgage insurance was the main engine at $670M, or ~95% of sales; the segment rows below sum to the $706M total.
why it's growing
Revenue grew ~8.5% last year on this page’s FY view— mostly PMI premium growth. EPS quality is a separate question; see “what just happened” for the latest miss vs consensus.
what just happened
NMIH posted $1.20 in EPS against $1.22 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
7.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
13.7% return on capital — nothing to write home about
~$4.91 EPS est (street · forward year on this snapshot)
xvary composite: 61/100 — average
What they do
It insures mortgages, so lenders get paid when borrowers miss payments.
You get a business with 50-state coverage and DC approval, plus only 230 employees. That is a tiny staff for a company tied to $706M in annual revenue. Mortgage insurance (lender protection against default losses) keeps recurring when housing slows.
How they make money
$706M
annual revenue · their business grew +8.5% last year
Primary mortgage insurance
$670M
+8.5%
Outsourced loan review services
$22M
+4.0%
Reinsurance and other
$14M
+0.0%
The products that matter
insures low-down-payment mortgages
Primary Mortgage Insurance
$181M q4 revenue · +8.4%
This lines up with ~$181M of consolidated Q4 revenue in the earnings strip— PMI drives almost all of it. New insurance written was down ~15%, so growth here is mostly in-force and pricing, not raw new flow.
core earnings engine
transfers part of the risk
Reinsurance
supports $221.4B insured book
This is the seatbelt: it supports capital management around a $221.4B insurance portfolio and matters most when the housing cycle gets less friendly.
capital buffer
Key numbers
$706M
TTM revenue
That is the whole company in one number. You are buying a mortgage insurer with a $706M top line, not a growth story with a side project.
7.9x
trailing P/E
You pay $7.90 for each $1 of trailing earnings. The market is pricing this like a low-expectation insurer.
13.7%
return on capital
For every $100 invested in the business, NMIH earned $13.70 in operating profit. That is decent, not heroic.
$415M
long-term debt
Debt is $415M, or 13% of capital. That is manageable until housing turns and capital gets expensive.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $415M (13% of capital)
B++ — above-average balance sheet for the group, with debt a manageable slice of capital.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NMIH right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
NMIH posted $1.20 in EPS against $1.22 expected.
The company reported $94.2M of net income for the quarter. Consolidated revenue was about $181M for the quarter; the full year reached $706M— top line still grew even with a small EPS miss vs the street.
$181M
quarter revenue
$1.20
quarter eps
$94.2M
quarter net income
the number that mattered
The $1.20 vs $1.22 EPS miss mattered because it shows the street is not leaving much room for disappointment even when revenue is fine.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is rising mortgage defaults in low-down-payment U.S. housing credit.
high
Housing market correction
If unemployment rises or home prices fall, claims can climb fast. NMI's entire $221.4B insurance book is tied to U.S. residential credit staying orderly.
Direct pressure on claims, margins, and the low valuation multiple people currently call cheap.
med
Mortgage rate pressure freezing new volume
Higher mortgage rates hurt affordability and reduce the flow of new loans that need insurance. Q4 already gave you the first warning with new insurance written down 15%.
Slower premium growth next, even if current earnings still look fine.
med
Competitive pricing pressure
Mortgage insurance is disciplined until volume gets scarce. A 71% pre-tax margin gives peers room to compete harder on price if they want share.
Margin compression without needing a full credit event.
low
Capital flexibility narrows
Cash and investments fell to $130.6M from $167M earlier in the year while long-term debt stands at $415M. That is manageable. It also means buybacks cannot carry the whole story forever.
Less room to absorb surprises while staying aggressive on repurchases.
A real housing reset would reach across the full $221.4B insured book, and the softer pipeline is already visible in the 15% drop in new insurance written.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
Expected late April 2026. EPS will matter, but the cleaner tell is whether new insurance written improves from Q4's 15% decline.
metric
insurance in force growth
The insured book reached $221.4B, up from $202B a year ago. If that growth slows while fresh volume stays weak, the revenue base gets less durable.
trend
buyback pace
NMI spent $223.6M on buybacks in 2025 and retired 7.3% of shares. At ~7.9x trailing P/E (scoreboard on this page), repurchases help— but only if the underlying book keeps compounding.
risk
credit quality in the housing market
This business looks almost absurdly profitable at a 71% pre-tax margin. That only works while defaults stay low and home prices stay stable enough to contain claims.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
80 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a business with fairly steady reported earnings while credit stays clean, even when housing sentiment gets noisy.
risk rank
3
That puts it around the middle of the pack on overall safety. Not fragile. Not a bunker stock either.
price stability
65 / 100
The stock has been steadier than a lot of cyclicals, but it still trades like a financial tied to mortgages.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NMIH is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$39.94
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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