Start here if you're new
what it is
NJR sells natural gas to 589,000 customers and runs energy services from New Jersey to Canada.
how it gets paid
Last year New Jersey Res made $1.4B in revenue. Residential was the main engine at $0.60B, or 43% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew ~9.9% last year (FY). Latest quarter revenue ~$441M, up ~23% vs. prior year on that slice—do not stack FY % and quarter % as the same growth rate.
what just happened
NJR posted $1.21 quarterly EPS, beating by more than a dime even though EPS fell vs. prior year.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
15.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
NJR sells natural gas to 589,000 customers and runs energy services from New Jersey to Canada.
This is a pipes-and-bills business. You do not casually switch your local gas utility, and NJR serves 589,000 customers through New Jersey Natural Gas. That base supports a 37.7% operating margin (operating margin → profit after running the business → this is fat for a utility) and a 95 price stability score.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.9% last year
Residential
$0.60B
Commercial
$0.25B
Firm Transportation
$0.07B
Out of Scope
$0.48B
The products that matter
distributes gas to homes
Residential Natural Gas
$581M · 43% of revenue
it's the largest piece of the business at $581M, and weather plus customer usage still matter even in a regulated model.
core revenue
distributes gas to businesses
Commercial Natural Gas
$243M · 18% of revenue
this $243M segment brings commercial demand into the mix, giving you a second regulated customer base beyond households.
18% of revenue
other and non-core revenue
Out of Scope
$459M · 34% of revenue
it's $459M of revenue — too big to ignore and too vague to treat like plain utility revenue. that's why this bucket matters.
watch closely
Key numbers
37.7%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what: NJR keeps a large share of each revenue dollar for a utility.
$3.3B
long-term debt
That debt load equals 39% of capital, which is manageable with an A balance sheet grade but still very real.
4.1%
dividend yield
You are getting paid while you wait, and the dividend has grown 7.0% historically with 6.0% projected growth.
15.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with earnings → so what: this is not expensive, but it is also not a bargain for a 5% earnings grower.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $3.3B (39% of capital)
- net profit margin 16.8% — keeps 17 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NJR 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,410.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
NJR posted $1.21 quarterly EPS, beating estimates by more than a dime even though EPS fell vs. prior year.
Revenue rose to ~$441M, up ~23% vs. prior year on that quarter, and the bottom line beat consensus. New Jersey Natural Gas and Energy Services showed the best improvement.
$441M
revenue
$1.21
eps
37.7%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $1.21 in quarterly EPS because it beat estimates despite an ~8% vs. prior year EPS decline—discipline mattered more than perfect growth.
-
the company reported higher revenues vs. prior year in the filing period covered by this snapshot (~$441M quarter on-page—do not mix with other periods).
-
most of its operating segments showed nice improvement, especially the new jersey natural gas arm.
-
the energy services unit also delivered some nice gains.
-
meanwhile, earnings of $1.21 per share were better than our estimate by over a dime.
-
some recent events will likely boost the remainder of the year as well.the energy services segment benefited from natural gas price volatility and the recent weather conditions.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is volatility inside the $459M "out of scope" revenue bucket, because that's where NJR looks least like a plain regulated utility.
high
natural gas price volatility
the regulated utility can recover some cost pressure over time. the less-regulated pieces do not get that luxury.
this risk reaches the $459M out-of-scope bucket — 34% of revenue.
high
regulatory and policy shifts around gas service
the moat is the regulated gas franchise. the risk is that policy slowly turns against new gas connections, cost recovery, or allowed returns.
residential and commercial together account for 61% of revenue, so any hit to the core utility framework matters.
med
warm weather and weaker customer usage
gas utilities are steadier than cyclicals, not immune to a mild winter. lower residential consumption shows up quickly.
the first place you feel that is the $581M residential segment, which is 43% of revenue.
med
debt and refinancing costs
utilities use leverage. that's normal. the issue is what happens if borrowing costs stay high while earnings growth slows.
long-term debt already sits at $3.3B, or 39% of capital.
between the $459M non-core bucket and $3.3B of long-term debt, NJR is steadier than most stocks but not as simple as a plain-vanilla utility.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report in may
you want to see whether the guidance raise is holding up in the actual numbers.
mix
the $459M out-of-scope bucket
a third of revenue sits here. if disclosure improves, the stock gets easier to underwrite.
trend
natural gas price moves
sharp moves matter most to the less-regulated parts of the business, not the monopoly utility core.
risk
new jersey regulatory decisions
watch for any change in recovery terms, gas policy, or return frameworks. that's the foundation under the stock.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock acting like a utility, not a momentum trade.
risk profile
below average
stability score 2 — historically safer than roughly 80% of stocks.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart is fine, but nobody is mistaking this for a breakout setup.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
the business is steadier than most, but the non-core revenue mix means quarterly numbers still deserve attention.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 206 buyers vs. 175 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 76.5M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$44
$65
$52
current price
$55
target midpoint · +6% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+55% · 14% ann'l return)
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