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what it is
NiSource delivers natural gas and electricity to nearly 4 million customers across six states through regulated local utilities.
how it gets paid
Last year Nisource made $6.5B in revenue. Gas utility was the main engine at $4.10B, or 63% of sales.
growth snapshot
Revenue was roughly flat last year at $6.5B. Quarterly EPS improved from $0.49 in 2024 to $0.53 in 2025.
what just happened
NiSource's latest quarter beat expectations, with EPS of $0.53 versus a $0.51 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
22.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
NiSource delivers natural gas and electricity to nearly 4 million customers across six states through regulated local utilities.
Its moat is a regulated monopoly (regulated monopoly → government-approved local utility territory → you usually cannot pick another pipe or wire). NiSource serves 3.3 million gas customers and 492,690 electric customers, so your monthly bill tends to go to them by default. That gives the stock unusual steadiness, with price stability scored at 95 out of 100.
How they make money
$6.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.0% last year
Gas utility
$4.10B
Electric utility - fossil-backed
$1.24B
Electric utility - renewables-backed
$0.97B
Other
$0.20B
The products that matter
delivers electricity and gas
Regulated Utility Operations
$6.5B revenue · entire business
it's the whole company. All $6.5B of revenue came from this regulated utility base, which means your upside depends more on approved returns than on demand surprises.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$15.5B
long-term debt
That is the trade here. You get utility stability, but you also own a balance sheet built on borrowing.
22.8x
trailing p/e
That is expensive for a utility growing projected sales just 2.0%, so the stock already prices in a lot of calm.
28.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the network, before interest and taxes → so what: the core business itself is solid.
2.5%
dividend yield
You are getting some income, but not enough to ignore the stock's limited 8% near-term upside.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $15.5B (42% of capital)
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — risk rank looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NI 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,620.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
NiSource's latest quarter beat expectations, with EPS of $0.53 versus a $0.51 estimate.
Quarterly EPS improved from $0.49 in 2024 to $0.53 in 2025. Annual 2025 EPS also rose to $1.95 from $1.75 in 2024, while company revenue was reported at $6.5B.
$6.5B
revenue
$0.53
eps
28.1%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was $1.95 in full-year 2025 EPS, up from $1.75 in 2024, because this stock gets paid for predictable step-by-step growth.
-
nisource, inc. likely posted solid results in 2025.the company was slated to report full-year numbers as we were going to press, but our estimates suggest decent top-and bottom-line advances.
-
our annual revenue estimate stands at $6.1 billion, which would represent a strong 12% increase vs. prior year.
-
earnings should see a nice bump also, roughly 9%, to $1.90 per share.
-
the company is well-positioned for the near term.
-
nisource has been seeing nice trends in most of its operating segments recently.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
NI's core risk is blunt: the company spends capital first and needs regulators to let it earn that money back later.
high
rate-case denials or delays
this business earns through approved rates. If state commissions reject, trim, or delay requested increases, earnings growth slows even if the infrastructure spending still happens.
Because regulated utility operations generate all $6.5B of revenue here, this is not a side risk. It touches the whole company.
high
infrastructure spending that earns back too slowly
utilities spend first and recover over time. If modernization costs rise faster than approvals, cash flow gets pinched and the 8%–9% adjusted EPS growth target starts looking optimistic.
The story only works if capital spending turns into allowed returns. If it turns into delayed paperwork, you own a more expensive utility than you thought.
med
$15.5B of long-term debt
the balance sheet is rated B++, but debt still equals 42% of capital. That matters in a capital-heavy business where refinancing cost and funding access are part of the operating model.
You do not need distress for this to matter. Higher financing drag can pressure returns on a business already earning 5.0% on capital.
med
single-footprint concentration in northern indiana
all $6.5B of revenue comes from one protected utility footprint. That helps focus, but it also means there is no diversification buffer if that regulatory environment turns less favorable.
Geographic concentration makes each local decision matter more than it would at a multi-state utility with broader earnings spread.
all $6.5B of revenue comes from the regulated utility business, so a weaker recovery path on rates would hit the core earnings story directly.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
rate-case outcomes
this is the whole ballgame. Watch what regulators approve, how fast they approve it, and whether recovery matches the spending plan.
metric
2026 EPS guide vs. actual
management guided to $2.02–$2.07. If results drift below that range, the premium for predictability starts to lose its point.
calendar
full-year filings and guidance updates
for NI, the calendar matters because the filings tell you whether the 8%–9% adjusted EPS growth path is still intact or quietly softening.
trend
institutional flow
net buying has lasted three straight quarters. If that reverses while the stock stays near a 52-week high, pay attention to whether conviction is fading under the surface.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts see a stable stock with limited near-term upside from here.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. This is defensive by market standards.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving normally. No panic, no breakout, just utility-like movement.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
few companies score this high. You can usually trust the broad earnings path management lays out.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 368 buyers vs. 339 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$38
$58
$44
current price
$48
target midpoint · +8% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+35% · 10% ann'l return)
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