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what it is
Natural Grocers runs 169 stores that sell natural groceries, supplements, and house-brand products across 21 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Natural Grocers made $1.3B in revenue. Natural & organic groceries was the main engine at $0.68B, or 52% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.2% last year. Quarterly revenue grew 2% vs. prior year, while EPS increased 14% and gross margin reached 29.5%.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $336M and EPS rose to $0.49, showing profit held up better than sales growth.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
12.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
Natural Grocers runs 169 stores that sell natural groceries, supplements, and house-brand products across 21 states.
This business wins by staying weirdly specific. It sells natural and organic groceries plus supplements in 169 stores, while bigger chains try to be everything at once. You go there for the rules: minimally processed food, no artificial colors or sweeteners, and nutrition education that makes the trip feel more curated than a normal grocery run.
How they make money
$1.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.2% last year
Natural & organic groceries
$0.68B
Dietary supplements
$0.29B
Special diet products
$0.16B
Natural Grocers brand
$0.10B
Household & personal care
$0.08B
The products that matter
specialty grocery retail
Natural & Organic Groceries
$1.1B · 85% of segment mix shown here
this is the traffic engine. It drives about $1.1B of the $1.3B revenue base and grew 6.5% from last year.
core demand
vitamins and wellness products
Dietary Supplements
$200M · +12.0% growth
this $200M category grew faster than the rest of the business. In a company with a 7.2% operating margin, faster-growing add-on categories matter.
faster growth
unit growth strategy
New Store Openings
6–8 stores planned for fiscal 2026
store expansion is one of the few clear growth levers on the page. If new locations open on time and ramp well, revenue growth gets help from square footage instead of just ticket growth.
execution test
Key numbers
$1.3B
annual revenue
You are paying about $590M in market value for a business doing $1.3B in sales. That contrast is the whole setup.
12.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → how many years of current profit you are paying for. At 12.7x, this is priced more like a plain grocer than a fast grower.
7.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → what is left before interest and taxes. For a grocer, 7.2% is the number to defend.
$292M
long-term debt
Debt matters more when your market cap is only about $590M. This is not fatal, but it is not decorative either.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $292M (33% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NGVC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $336M and EPS rose to $0.49, showing profit held up better than sales growth.
Quarterly revenue grew 2% vs. prior year, while EPS increased 14% and gross margin reached 29.5%. That is the contrast: slower top-line growth, better profit conversion.
$336M
revenue
$0.49
eps
29.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
29.5% gross margin mattered most because margin → money left after product costs → your cushion. It explains how EPS grew 14% while revenue grew only 2%.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is gross margin pressure in specialty grocery.
high
gross margin pressure
Q1 2026 showed the problem clearly. Sales reached $334.2M, but gross profit increased less than $0.1M to $98.9M.
If that keeps happening, the 7.2% operating margin stops looking stable and the low multiple stops looking cheap.
high
bigger rivals can price harder
Whole Foods, Kroger, and other chains sell into the same natural and organic aisle with more scale. Natural Grocers has $1.3B in revenue. The national chains have more room to absorb promotions.
That exposes the full $1.3B revenue base to pricing pressure, not just one category.
med
store expansion has to earn its keep
Management plans 6–8 new stores in fiscal 2026. New units can drive growth, but only if they ramp without diluting returns.
More square footage helps revenue. It does not automatically help earnings.
med
the balance sheet is fine, not forgiving
Long-term debt stands at $292M, or 33% of capital. That is manageable, but not trivial for a small-cap grocer with a 25/100 price stability score.
If operating results wobble, financial flexibility matters more than it would for a stronger balance sheet.
Across $1.3B in annual sales, even a small hit to pricing or merchandise margin can do outsized damage because the operating margin is only 7.2%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
margin
gross profit dollars
Q1 sales grew, but gross profit increased less than $0.1M to $98.9M. If that pattern repeats, the core thesis gets weaker fast.
calendar
Q2 2026 earnings report
Expected may 14, 2026. You want to see whether revenue growth is still translating into actual gross profit improvement.
expansion
6–8 store opening plan
The Walla Walla opening was the first visible step. Watch pace, not just announcements. Growth-by-store-count only works if the stores are productive.
competition
pricing discipline against larger chains
This is a niche operator inside a scale game. If management has to chase traffic with discounts, the 12.7x multiple will not save you.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
60 / 100
middle of the road. in human-speak, analysts think the numbers are usable, but not smooth enough to trust blindly.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NGVC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$25
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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