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what it is
NGS rents and builds natural gas compression equipment that keeps wells and pipelines moving gas.
how it gets paid
Last year Ngs made $157M in revenue. Compression equipment rentals was the main engine at $97M, or 62% of sales.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue reached $10M, up 202% vs. prior year, and EPS came in at $1.25.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
23.1x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
NGS rents and builds natural gas compression equipment that keeps wells and pipelines moving gas.
This is a niche fleet business. As of December 31, 2024, NGS had 1,912 compressors totaling 598,840 horsepower, which means you are buying installed equipment already working in the field. Compression rental → long-lived equipment leased to customers → so what: once a unit is placed, replacing it is slow, expensive, and operationally annoying.
How they make money
$157M
annual revenue
Compression equipment rentals
$97M
Compressor fabrication and assembly
$28M
Compressor sales, exchange and rebuilds
$19M
Flare stacks and controls
$13M
The products that matter
rents compressor units
Compression rental
$157.0M · about 91% of segment mix shown here
This is the core business. It produced $157.0M of revenue in the segment view and sits inside a record $172.3M 2025 revenue year.
main revenue engine
maintains and repairs fleet
Parts & service
$15.3M · support revenue
This is the smaller piece at $15.3M, but it helps keep the rental fleet working and supports the $81.0M adjusted EBITDA NGS posted in 2025.
fleet support
future earnings target
2026 fleet deployment
$90.5M–$95.5M EBITDA guide
Management is guiding to 12–18% EBITDA growth for 2026. That's not a product line in the strict sense. It's still the number that decides whether this story keeps working.
the number that matters
Key numbers
$1.37
fy2024 eps est
$157M
fy2024 rev est
23.1x
trailing p/e
1.2%
dividend yield
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $208M (32% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NGS right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue reached $10M, up 202% vs. prior year, and EPS came in at $1.25.
The bigger story is the earnings turn. Quarterly EPS went from losses in 2022 to FY2024 EPS of $1.37, while the business held a 42.7% operating margin on the FY2024 revenue estimate.
$10M
revenue
$1.25
eps
42.7%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$1.25 of quarterly EPS matters most because it shows how hard profits can jump when utilization improves in a high-fixed-cost equipment fleet.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is missing the $90.5M low end of 2026 EBITDA guidance in a business that already scores just 20/100 for earnings predictability.
high
Guidance miss on 2026 EBITDA
Management is guiding to $90.5M–$95.5M in 2026 EBITDA after reporting $81.0M in 2025. That implies 12–18% growth. The stock's current setup assumes that growth shows up.
If EBITDA lands below $90.5M, the 23.1x trailing P/E starts looking rich for a business with only 5.5% return on capital.
high
Scale disadvantage against larger rivals
NGS has a $447M market cap versus Archrock at $9.8B. This is a capital-heavy rental business. Bigger fleets usually mean more customer reach, more financing options, and more room to absorb mistakes.
The practical risk is lower pricing power and slower fleet expansion, which can cap returns even when industry demand is fine.
med
Debt plus growth capex timing
NGS carries $208M in long-term debt, or 32% of capital. That is manageable when fleet investments convert into EBITDA quickly. It gets tighter when equipment arrives before revenue does.
This risk does not need a crisis to hurt you. A slower ramp can pressure cash generation and leave the balance sheet looking smaller than the plan assumed.
low
Leadership transition
The Chairman Emeritus is retiring after two decades. That does not change the fleet overnight, but it does remove a long-tenured voice from a small company where leadership continuity matters more.
On its own this is not the thesis breaker. Combined with an execution stumble, it becomes less easy to dismiss.
NGS does not have a moat to bail it out. A miss on EBITDA growth would hit the valuation story directly, while $208M of debt limits how many bad quarters you can wave away.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
2026 EBITDA versus the $90.5M floor
The whole story tightens around this number. If results start drifting below the low end of guidance, you have your first real thesis break.
calendar
Next earnings update
Quarterly reports matter more here than usual because the business carries 20/100 earnings predictability. You need proof that the full-year target is still intact.
trend
Revenue mix staying concentrated in rental
Compression rental is about 91% of the revenue mix shown on this page. That focus is clean, but it leaves you heavily tied to one operating trend.
risk
Debt load versus growth spend
$208M of long-term debt is fine if growth capex keeps converting into EBITDA. If not, balance-sheet flexibility becomes the story faster than you want.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Earnings predictability: 20/100. In human-speak, analysts do not trust this company to print clean, repeatable quarters.
risk rank
3
Risk rank: 3. You're not looking at a distressed stock, but you're also not hiding in a defensive name.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NGS is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$36
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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