Start here if you're new
what it is
New Gold pulls gold, silver, and copper out of Canadian mines.
how it gets paid
Last year Ngd made $924M in revenue. Rainy River mine was the main engine at $552M, or 60% of sales.
what just happened
FY2024 revenue landed at $924M, just $1M under Value Line's $925M estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
25.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
7.7% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.14 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
New Gold pulls gold, silver, and copper out of Canadian mines.
You cannot copy a mine with code. New Gold has 2 main operating properties and 1,607 employees. You get real dirt, not a software logo.
How they make money
$924M
annual revenue
Rainy River mine
$552M
+2.0%
New Afton project
$316M
+1.5%
Silver by-product sales
$32M
flat
Copper by-product sales
$24M
1.0%
The products that matter
gold and copper mining
New Afton Mine
part of 325,000–365,000 ounce 2025 guidance
it is the primary asset inside a 325,000–365,000 ounce annual gold production target, which means execution here does a lot of the talking.
core asset
gold production
Rainy River Mine
second operating pillar
this mine shares the burden of hitting 2025 guidance, and with only two key operations, a miss at one site matters more than management would like.
two-mine portfolio
Key numbers
46.6%
operating margin
Almost half of revenue stays after operating costs. For a miner, that is a lot of cash and a small margin for bad geology.
$924M
annual revenue
This is the size of the business. It is big enough to matter and small enough to get bought.
$396M
long-term debt
Debt is 5% of capital, so the balance sheet is not choking. It still matters when metal prices move against you.
1.3
beta
The stock moves about 30% more than the market. You are buying extra wobble with the ticker.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $396M (5% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NGD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
FY2024 revenue landed at $924M, just $1M under Value Line's $925M estimate.
EPS was $0.14, exactly where expected it. Gross margin was 26.0%. That is a tiny miss on sales and a clean finish on profit per share.
$924M
revenue
$0.14
eps
26.0%
gross margin
revenue miss
Revenue missed by $1M on a $925M target, which is a 0.1% miss. That is basically a rounding error with a ticker.
source: and EDGAR, FY2024
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the Coeur Mining merger failing or slipping.
high
merger close risk
the current appeal is the estimated 16% premium. if the vote fails, the timeline slips badly, or terms change, that spread can disappear fast.
the current appeal is the estimated 16% premium. if the vote fails, the timeline slips badly, or terms change, that spread can disappear fast.
high
fixed-share consideration
this is not a cash deal. you get 0.4959 Coeur shares. if Coeur trades down before close, your effective takeout value drops with it.
this is not a cash deal. you get 0.4959 Coeur shares. if Coeur trades down before close, your effective takeout value drops with it.
med
commodity price exposure
100% of the $924.5M revenue base comes from gold and copper sales. there is no software segment hiding in the basement to smooth that out.
100% of the $924.5M revenue base comes from gold and copper sales. there is no software segment hiding in the basement to smooth that out.
med
two-mine concentration
2025 guidance of 325,000–365,000 ounces depends on New Afton and Rainy River doing their jobs. when you only have two key operations, one stumble is enough to change the quarter.
2025 guidance of 325,000–365,000 ounces depends on New Afton and Rainy River doing their jobs. when you only have two key operations, one stumble is enough to change the quarter.
you are holding a two-mine commodity producer until it converts into 0.4959 shares of another miner. the 16% spread, $924.5M revenue base, and 325,000–365,000 ounce guidance tell you exactly where the risk sits.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
merger vote and closing timeline
the january 27, 2026 shareholder vote matters more than almost any standalone valuation debate. if the close slips, the spread story changes immediately.
metric
the 0.4959 exchange ratio
watch Coeur's stock price against that fixed ratio. your end value floats with Coeur until the deal closes.
trend
New Afton and Rainy River execution
the business only has two major operating levers. production misses, cost creep, or guidance cuts at either mine will show up quickly.
risk
gold and copper price tape
with $924.5M tied to metal sales and no moat, weaker realized prices can pressure sentiment even if the deal still gets done.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to print smooth quarters. mining results and metal prices get a vote.
risk rank
3
that reads as middle-of-the-pack risk. not a disaster zone, not a safe utility either.
price stability
10 / 100
a 10 / 100 stability score means this stock moves around. welcome to miners, and doubly so during deal limbo.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NGD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$10
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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