NFG — National Fuel Gas · XVARY Snapshot

XVARY Composite Score

55

/ 100

Below Average

Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.

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What it is

It drills for natural gas and oil, then moves gas through a utility and pipelines.

How it gets paid

Last year National Fuel Gas made $2.2B in revenue. Exploration/Production was the main engine at $1.14B, or 52% of sales.

Why it's growing
Revenue grew 30.0% last year. GAAP EPS was $1.98. Output rose 12%, and gas realizations rose 14%.

What just happened

Q1 FY2026 put $2.06 adjusted EPS on $638M of revenue.

At a Glance

B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night

20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

15.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal

2.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter

10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about

XVARY composite: 55/100 — below average

What They Do

It drills for natural gas and oil, then moves gas through a utility and pipelines.

You are buying three businesses in one. Exploration/Production (drilling and selling gas and oil) was 52% of fiscal 2025 sales, Utility (rate-set gas delivery) was 36%, and Pipeline and Storage and Gathering (moving gas) was 12%. That mix paid off when output rose 12% and gas realizations rose 14%.

energy mid-cap dividend natural-gas regulated-utility

How They Make Money

$2.2B annual revenue · their business grew +30.0% last year

Exploration/Production

$1.14B

Utility

$0.79B

Pipeline and Storage and Gathering

$0.26B

The Products That Matter

Produces natural gas and oil

Upstream & Gathering

$2.2B revenue base · 98% of sales

it generated 98% of company sales last year, and production output grew 12%. that's the engine. it's also the concentration risk.

98% of sales

Distributes gas to customers

Regulated Utility

2% of sales

it sits inside the 2% of sales not coming from upstream, which tells you its job is ballast, not scale. you own it for stability when commodity prices misbehave.

stability

Transports and stores gas

Pipeline & Storage

fee-based infrastructure

this also lives inside the remaining 2% of sales outside upstream. it matters less for headline growth and more for making the business less purely tied to one commodity price.

fee-based

Key Numbers

$113

18-mo target

That is 33% above $84.99, so the stock is not priced like a panic sale.

15.0x

trailing P/E

Price-to-earnings means the price you pay for each dollar of profit. At 15.0x, you are not buying a bargain-bin energy stock.

2.6%

dividend yield

You get $2.60 a year for every $100 invested if the payout holds.

10.5%

return on capital

That is the rate the business earns on the money tied up in it.

Financial Health

B++

Strength

balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
price stability 95 / 100
long-term debt $2.1B (20% of capital)
net profit margin 33.3% — keeps 33 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in

B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.

Total Return vs. Market

You invested $10000 in NFG 3 years ago → it's now worth $16300.

The index would have given you $13880.

same period. same starting point. NFG beat the market by $2,420.

source: institutional data · total return

What Just Happened

beat estimates

Q1 FY2026 put $2.06 adjusted EPS on $638M of revenue.

GAAP EPS was $1.98. Output rose 12%, and gas realizations rose 14%.

$638M

revenue

$2.06

eps

7.4%

beat

the number that mattered

The $2.06 adjusted EPS beat the $1.92 estimate by 7.4%.

National fuel gas began fiscal 2026 on strong footing. (year ends september 30th.) during the december period, profits quadrupled, vs. prior year, coming in at $1.98 a share, while revenues jumped nearly 19%.

the integrated upstream & gathering segment was the brightest spot in recent months, thanks to good tioga county utica well results.
Stronger production (output was up 12% vs. prior year), and rising natural gas price realizations (a 14% increase) supported totals.
National fuel’s regulated utility business also advanced nicely over the term.
The company is well positioned for the year ahead.

even though national fuel may experience challenging weather conditions, ongoing operational improvements should more than offset the negative impact.
All told, earnings will probably expand between 30% and 35% for the full year, on revenue growth of 5%-10%.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What Could Go Wrong

The #1 risk is natural gas price exposure.

∘

Med

Natural gas price exposure

Upstream generated 98% of NFG's $2.2B revenue last year. If gas prices roll over, the utility and pipeline pieces help, but they do not replace the earnings engine.

the cleanest proof is the revenue setup: fiscal 2026 revenue is estimated at $2B versus $2.2B last year.

∘

Med

Earnings volatility

earnings predictability sits at 20/100. a quarter with EPS up 304% vs. prior year is great, but it also tells you the number can swing hard in the other direction.

when predictability is this low, one bad quarter can matter more than a full year of polite guidance.

∘

Med

Production execution

the latest quarter leaned on good Tioga County Utica well results and 12% output growth. if that pace slips, the headline growth story gets thinner fast.

the current case assumes those field-level gains keep doing the heavy lifting.

with 98% of revenue still upstream and only 2% coming from the steadier pieces, gas prices still set the tone for the whole stock.

Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay Attention To

Earnings

Next earnings report

the next report is expected in april. with a 20/100 predictability score, the calendar matters more here than it does for smoother businesses.

Trend

Natural gas pricing

98% of revenue came from upstream last year. if the commodity moves, the earnings story moves with it.

Metric

Production growth

last year's 12% production output growth helped power the story. you want to see that pace hold up.

Risk

Revenue versus the $2B estimate

the street already models revenue below last year's $2.2B. miss that lower bar, and the cheap part of the thesis gets weaker.

Analyst Rankings

short-term outlook

below average

momentum score 4. in human-speak, analysts do not expect this to be a near-term standout.

risk profile

above average

stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks, which is unusually calm for an energy name.

chart momentum

average

technical score 3 — the chart is behaving normally, not screaming either way.

earnings predictability

20 / 100

low predictability means quarterly numbers can surprise you more than the business description suggests.

Source: institutional data

Institutional Activity

institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 312 buyers vs. 229 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 69.8M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

Source: institutional data

Price Targets

3-5 year target range

$77 $149

$85 Current price

$113 Target midpoint · +33% from current · 3-5yr high: $135 (+60% · 14% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The Deep Dive

NFG

XVARY Deep Dive

nfg

The full analysis is in the works.

What you'll get

DCF valuation model

Bull / base / bear scenarios

Competitive moat breakdown

Quarterly earnings tracker

Operating model projections

Risk matrix with kill criteria

Original price target + conviction

Updated with every earnings

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