Start here if you're new
what it is
New Fortress turns natural gas into delivered power by owning pieces from fuel processing to terminals to power plants.
how it gets paid
Last year New Fortress made $1.7B in revenue.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $852M, but the bigger fact is that losses stayed brutal with EPS at -$3.82.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
2.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.60 fy2027 eps est
xvary composite: 15/100 — weak
What they do
New Fortress turns natural gas into delivered power by owning pieces from fuel processing to terminals to power plants.
NFE controls more of the chain than most rivals. It owns liquefaction, terminals, pipelines, shipping access, and power plants in one system. That setup helped produce a 23.0% operating margin, which means 23 cents of operating profit for every dollar of sales, so fewer middlemen get paid before you do.
How they make money
$1.7B
annual revenue · revenue was roughly flat last year
total revenue
$1.7B
+0.0%
The products that matter
imports and handles LNG
LNG Terminals & Infrastructure
$1.0B disclosed segment revenue
this is the largest disclosed revenue bucket at $1.0B. you need these assets working because they are the physical foundation for everything else the company sells.
largest segment
sells gas and power
Gas & Power Supply
$0.7B disclosed segment revenue
this $0.7B segment is where contracts turn into revenue. the 7-year, $3B Puerto Rico agreement matters because NFE needs stable offtake more than it needs a good narrative.
contract-driven
builds future capacity
Brazil Power Projects
one plant nearly finalized · one roughly halfway complete
Brazil is the growth option embedded in the story. celba is nearly finalized, while portocem is roughly halfway completed. that helps the long-term case, but the short-term problem is still debt.
future cash flow
Key numbers
+217%
18-month upside
The published 18-month target is $4 versus a $1.26 stock price, which tells you the shares are priced like the balance sheet might win the argument.
$2.3B
long-term debt
Debt is 87% of capital, so your upside case only works if the company keeps creditors calm.
23.0%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit before interest and taxes, so 23 cents on each sales dollar shows the assets can earn money before debt costs show up.
2.1x
trailing p/e
That multiple is absurdly low versus most energy stocks, which is the market's way of charging an anxiety premium.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $2.3B (87% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.0% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C+ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NFE 3 years ago → it's now worth $330.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $852M, but the bigger fact is that losses stayed brutal with EPS at -$3.82.
EDGAR shows quarterly revenue up 255% vs. prior year to $852M. Consensus data shows the last reported EPS at -$1.07 versus -$0.50 expected, a 114% miss, while EDGAR shows an even deeper -$3.82 loss in the latest quarter.
$852M
revenue
$3.82
eps
114.0%
surprise
the number that mattered
The number is -$3.82 EPS, because a stock at $1.26 has very little cushion for another quarter of losses that large.
-
for the recently ended full-year 2025, our model suggests that revenues probably declined 39% vs. prior year, to $1.45 billion, while share losses likely accelerated to $4.35.our financial outlook for 2026 remains cautious, as well, with modest revenue expansion and further share deficits probably in the cards.
-
the highly leveraged balance sheet is a core concern.in particular, near-term obligations jumped in the third quarter, as a large chunk of existing debt approaches maturity. consequently, management is considering a restructuring plan under which creditors would receive preferred equity in a reorganized entity. essentially, the company is exploring the option of changing its corporate debt into an asset-backed financing model. while the plan’s structure is still unfolding, the company’s daunting near-term liabilities bear watching. completed projects in brazil and a notable contract win in puerto rico should support long-term revenue and earnings growth. first, the company is making progress on power plant projects in brazil, with celba nearly finalized, and the portocem plant roughly halfway completed. second, new fortress recently received final approval for a seven-year natural gas supply agreement with puerto rico worth approximately $3 billion over that time frame.
-
specifically, new fortress will supply low-emission natural gas to the island, supporting the country’s transition from diesel power.
-
we are not presently recommending the stock.although leadership is taking steps to right the ship, long-term business prospects remain rather ill-defined. and while capital appreciation potential over the 2029-2031 window is wide, the stock’s elevated risk profile is disconcerting. overall, we think investors would be prudent to continue to monitor the company’s operational developments over the near term before starting a position here.
source: SEC filing and consensus data, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is restructuring that leaves common equity behind.
med
restricted default after a missed interest payment
Fitch cut NFE's long-term issuer rating to RD on Nov 20, 2025 after a missed payment. That is not a warning shot. That is the warning landing.
With $2.3B of long-term debt on the balance sheet, default language can move control from shareholders to creditors very quickly.
med
forbearance buys time, not safety
NFE is managing a credit agreement extension and forbearance deal with bondholders while near-term obligations have already moved up the priority list.
If the liability plan requires preferred equity or other restructuring concessions, the current ~$350M equity value can be diluted or impaired hard.
med
the operating fix may arrive too late
The 7-year, $3B Puerto Rico contract and Brazil project progress support the business case, but contracts and construction milestones do not pay maturities on their own.
This is the core timing risk: even good assets can fail the equity if cash flow ramps slower than the balance sheet demands.
A missed payment, RD status, and $2.3B of debt put the entire ~$350M equity stub at risk.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
balance sheet
debt resolution terms
The single most important update is whether NFE exits forbearance on terms that preserve value for common equity instead of handing the keys to creditors.
calendar
next earnings report
Estimated for Apr 30, 2026. On this stock, you care less about headline EPS and more about liquidity, obligations, and any change in restructuring language.
execution
Puerto Rico contract ramp
A 7-year, $3B agreement sounds great. The market wants evidence that revenue from that agreement turns into cash fast enough to matter.
sentiment
analyst target dispersion
Sixteen analysts sit at neutral, with targets ranging from $1.00 to $8.50. That is not consensus. That is a room full of people pricing different restructuring outcomes.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not trust the earnings stream to behave like a normal operating company.
price stability
5 / 100
This stock trades like a special situation. You should expect sharp moves because the capital structure can change the story faster than operations can.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
98 buyers vs. 118 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$1
$7
$1
current price
$4
target midpoint · +217% from current · 3-5yr high: $4 (+215% · 34% ann'l return)
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